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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 21

Aug 21, 2012

Tuesday, August 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks were firmer as a Spanish
treasury bill auction was deemed successful. European
investors are more confident the European Central Bank will
be more aggressive in dealing with and aiding the
financially troubled EU countries going forward. Still, it’s
another quiet summertime trading day in the market place.
There has been little “headline risk” in recent weeks, as
much of Europe is on vacation and the U.S. moves through the
summertime doldrums. However, traders and investors are
looking forward to the Jackson Hole, Wyoming U.S. Federal
Reserve confab next week, and the mid-September FOMC
meeting. Many raw commodity and stock market bulls are
hoping the Fed will soon announce a fresh quantitative
easing of monetary policy--nicknamed QE3. The minutes of the
last FOMC meeting are due out Wednesday and could provide a
slight hint at what may come regarding a Fed monetary policy
move.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit another fresh five-month high
overnight. Bulls have upside technical momentum on their
side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the March high of 1,419.60 and then at 1,425.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and
then at 1,387.40. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh nearly five-
month high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the April
high of 2,791.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,767.00 and then at
2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,200 and then at 13,150. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at the May high of
13,280 and then at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls have faded badly the past
three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 146 12/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at last week’s low of 145 4/32 and then at 145
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Bears still have downside technical
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.22.0 and then at 133.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at last week’s low of 132.05.0 and then at
132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as
a four-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 82.51 and then at
Monday’s high of 82.76. Shorter-term support is seen at the
August low of 82.06 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and poked to another
fresh three-month high overnight. Bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum. In October Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at of $97.50 and
then at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $96.00 and then at Monday’s low of $95.32.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading as bulls have
regained upside momentum, partly due to focus this week is
on the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Early results
show poor corn and soybean crops on the Corn Belt fringes.
However, trader focus is also becoming less on the major
U.S. drought and the supply impact, and more on the high
grain prices and the resulting lessening demand impact. My
bias is still that there is not much upside room above the
recent highs in the grains, on a sustainable basis.
 

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