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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 3

Dec 03, 2012

Monday, December 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Euro currency and European stocks
were given a boost when Greece announced it would buy back
up to 10 billion Euros of its outstanding bonds at a price
from 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. The positive market
sentiment on this news underscores how bad the situation is
in Greece—when investors are encouraged that a sovereign
government offers to buy back its obligated debt at less
than half of face value. Other European investors snapped up
German government short-term debt offered on Monday at a
negative return, another sign of the bad economic and
financial situation still overhanging the EU. Germany on
Friday approved a fresh bailout package for Greece. Euro
zone finance ministers meet again Monday to further discuss
details of Greece’s latest bailout plan. The European
markets were also lifted on an improving Euro zone
purchasing managers index, although the PMI still showed an
overall contraction in November. Meantime, the raw commodity
markets were also cheered by news that China’s manufacturing
PMI rose to a seven-month high in November. Other Asian
countries also posted improving PMI manufacturing numbers
Monday. The focus of the market place worldwide remains on
the U.S. “fiscal cliff” that is fast approaching. U.S.
lawmakers are still jousting on the matter, with not much
new. The market place has started to ignore the rhetoric.
Most reckon the bluster coming from Washington, D.C. is just
normal. The market place presently perceives there will be a
last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the
fiscal cliff.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a
fresh four-week high overnight as the bulls are gaining
fresh upside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November
high of 1,431.40 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,413.00
and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit
a fresh four-week high overnight. Bulls have upside
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the November high of 2,694.00 and then at 2,700.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,675.75 and then at 2,660.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
four-week high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,000 and then at Friday’s low
of 12,975. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,100 and then at 13,150. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today, on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 150
even and then at last week’s high of 150 14/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 11/32 and
then at 149 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today, on
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 133.20.0 and then at last
week’s high of 133.22.5. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133.11.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading
today and hit another fresh four-week low overnight. Bears
have fresh downside near-term technical momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.34 and then at Friday’s high of
80.53. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at
79.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In January Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $88.66 and then at
$88.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, boosted by the
weaker U.S. dollar index and the positive economic data
coming out of Asia overnight. Trading has been choppy
recently.
 

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