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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 7

Dec 07, 2012

Friday, December 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Friday’s U.S. jobs report for November may be a market
mover, but that report will likely be skewed by the super
storm Sandy that hit the U.S. east coast a few weeks ago and
therefore be somewhat less market-sensitive. Forecasts call
for the key non-farm payrolls figure to have risen by 80,000
in November. In overnight trading, European stocks traded
not far from unchanged ahead of the U.S. jobs report. More
dour economic news came out of the European Union Friday, as
the German Bundesbank cut Germany’s economic growth forecast
for this year and next year, including saying the German
economy could slip into recession in the next few months.
The Bundesbank said German economic growth in 2012 would be
0.7%, down from its earlier estimate of 1.0% annual growth.
For 2013, the German central bank forecast German economic
growth at 0.4%, from its earlier estimate of 1.6% annual
growth. That news sunk the Euro currency. In the U.S., the
focus of the market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax
increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. With
Congress now on recess again, fresh news on the matter has
died down a bit. While the market place presently perceives
odds are higher than not that there will be a last-minute
agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff,
the overall situation continues to be a bearish drag on many
markets, including the raw commodities and stock markets.
The market place is starting to look ahead to next week’s
last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting of the year, on December
10 and 11. The “Operation Twist” program ends and the FOMC
members must decide whether to extend the bond-buying
program. Many believe the Fed will continue to purchase U.S.
Treasuries and implement “QE4” at next week’s meeting. That
would be raw-commodity market bullish, including bullish for
the precious metals markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today,
ahead of the U.S. jobs report. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,414.80 and then at this
week’s high of 1,423.90. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at this week’s low of 1,397.00 and then at last
week’s low of 1,383.20. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,657.00 and then at 2,679.25. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,622.50
and then at 2,611.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,000
and then at 12,950. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at this week’s high of 13,075 and then
at 13,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on
some mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight high of 150 21/32 and then at this week’s
high of 150 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 150 10/32 and then at 150 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s contract
high of 134.01.0 and then at 134.08.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.25.5 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 133.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading
today, on more short covering. Bulls are gaining upside
near-term technical momentum late this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
80.82 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.39 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls are
fading, technically, late this week. In January Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $86.65 and then at $87.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at this week’s low of
$85.68 and then at last week’s low of $85.36. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Soybean bulls have
gained fresh upside technical momentum recently, while
trading in corn and wheat remains choppy. Grain market
traders will look to the key outside markets today for
direction (U.S. dollar index and crude oil), especially in
the wake of the jobs report. My bias remains that there is
not strong downside price potential in the grains in the
coming weeks and months.
 

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