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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 13

Feb 13, 2013

Wednesday, February 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Group of 20 nations meets in Moscow on Friday and
Saturday. A main topic will likely be currency values as
many industrialized nations have in recent months, or
longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their
economic growth. The Group of Seven nations has issued
statements before the G-20 meeting begins. A statement
Tuesday said their central banks were not attempting to
devalue their currencies, but instead trying to boost their
economic growth rates. The G-7 nations also said they will
not target specific currency exchange rates. Then on
Wednesday another G-7 statement said the group has asked
Japan to not buy foreign bonds with the yen. Japanese
finance officials were considering that method to
effectively devalue the yen. The value of the Japanese yen
against the U.S. dollar has fallen by around 15% since
November. The G-7 statements are meant to head off growing
concerns that “currency wars” could break out if there is
not some form of agreement reached soon by the major
nations, regarding currency exchange rates. The market place
will continue to watch for news coming ahead of and during
the Moscow G-20 meeting. The Lunar New Year celebration is
occurring this week in Asia. China, the number-two economy
in the world, is on holiday all week for the celebration.
That is keeping Asian markets quiet and is also spilling
over into some more subdued trade in Europe and the U.S.
Reports Wednesday said that German government borrowing
costs at its debt auctions have risen to the highest levels
in nearly a year. That’s a sign of improving investor risk
appetite among European Union investors, and another clue
that the EU debt crisis has at least stabilized and may be
turning the corner toward recovery. The recent strength in
the Euro currency is also signal of better times ahead for
the European Union. U.S. economic data due for release
Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications
survey, import and export price indexes, retail sales,
manufacturing and trade inventories and sales, and the
weekly DOE energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading
today and poked to another five-year high. Not much new.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,525.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and
hovering near a four-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and have recently seen a
bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
this week’s high of 2,779.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,759.00 and
then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh
five-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 13,925 and then
at this week’s low of 13,895. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 14,000 and then at 14,050.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again early today and
are hovering near the recent contract low. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage as risk appetite
in the market place has been on the upswing for several
weeks. That’s bearish for safe-haven bonds and notes.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 143 even and then the overnight high
of 143 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.10.0 and then at
the overnight high of 131.17.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 131.05.5 and then at 131.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The
greenback bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.13 and then at 80.35.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.96
and then at 79.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hovering near a
five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and have this week regained upside near-term
technical momentum. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the January high of
$98.24 and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $97.50 and then at
$97.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. Grain market bulls have faded
badly recently as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon
is at hand. There may be some near-term selling pressure in
the grains, but I am still longer-term bullish the grains.
Thus, present price weakness in the grains could be seen as
value-buying opportunities looking at what prices could be
fetching in the coming months.
 

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