Apr 19, 2014
Home| Contact Us| Sign UpLogin


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 14

Feb 14, 2013

Thursday, February 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There is some increased risk aversion in the market place
early Thursday that is producing safe-haven buying interest
in gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. Weak data
coming out of the European Union has at least temporarily
dented investor risk appetite. Gross domestic product in the
Euro zone dropped at the sharpest rate in four years, it was
reported Thursday. GDP fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter
versus the third quarter. For all of 2012 Euro zone GDP
contracted by 0.5%. Euro zone leader Germany saw its GDP
fall by 0.6% from the previous quarter. The European Central
Bank also on Thursday said it has reduced its economic
growth forecast for the Euro zone, predicting zero growth in
2013 from its previous forecast of 0.3% growth. That news
sunk the Euro currency and lifted the U.S. dollar. Meantime,
Japan also saw its GDP decline for the third straight
quarter, it was reported Thursday. GDP fell by 0.4% in the
fourth quarter of last year, on an annualized basis. The
Bank of Japan on Thursday left its monetary policy
unchanged, as expected, after its latest meeting on monetary
policy. The weak Japan GDP report only reaffirms notions the
Bank of Japan will continue on a very accommodative monetary
policy path. That is a bullish factor for the raw commodity
markets, including the precious metals. The Group of 20
nations meets in Moscow on Friday and Saturday. The world
market place will closely watch for developments before and
during the meeting. A main topic will likely be currency
values as many industrialized nations have in recent months,
or longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive
their economic growth. Group of Seven nation statements this
week, ahead of the G-20 meeting, were meant to head off
growing concerns that “currency wars” could break out if
there is not some form of agreement reached soon by the
major nations, regarding currency exchange rates. The Lunar
New Year celebration is occurring this week in Asia. China,
the number-two economy in the world, is on holiday all week
for the celebration. That is keeping Asian markets quiet and
is also spilling over into some more subdued trade in Europe
and the U.S. It’s also keeping physical demand for gold
coming out of Asia on the light side. The only U.S. economic
report of significance due out Thursday is the weekly
jobless claims report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early trading today on
some profit taking and amid the modest “risk off” day in the
market place Thursday. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,521.80 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s
low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early trading on
some profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,769.50 and then at this
week’s high of 2,783.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,750.00 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today on profit taking
after hitting a five-year high on Wednesday. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,850
and then at 13,805. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 13,958 and then at Wednesday’s high
of 14,004. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on short
covering and mild safe-haven buying interest. Prices are
still not far above the recent contract low. Bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 143
14/32 and then at this week’s high of 143 30/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 142 16/32 and then at the
overnight low of 142 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on mild
short covering and flight-to-quality buying. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.17.0 and then at
131.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.08.0 and then at
131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is sharply higher early today
and hit a fresh five-week high overnight. The greenback
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, the bulls are showing the kind of power recently to
suggest a market bottom is in place. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 80.71 and then at the January high of 80.99.
Shorter-term support is seen at 80.50 and then at the
overnight low of 80.14. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today and are seeing
limited buying interest from a stronger U.S. dollar.
However, the bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In March Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $97.39 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $97.00 and then at $96.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Corn and wheat were
firmer and soybeans were weaker. Grain market bulls have
faded badly recently as the seasonal “February Break”
phenomenon is at hand. Traders will closely scrutinize
today’s weekly USDA export sales report.
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.

Information to help you                   make great decisions

Land management

Track your local input prices.

Risk management strategies

 

Complete list of Pro Farmer services



More Than A Newsletter

PRO FARMER SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES

All
LandOwner Newsletter Archives
Pro Farmer Washington Report Archives
Pro Farmer Annual Land Report Archives
Pro Farmer Grain Report Archives
Pro Farmer Newsletter Archives
Pro Farmer Tax Report Archives
Crop Tour Newsletter Archives
 
* Login or signup to access newsletters.