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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 25

Feb 25, 2013

Monday, February 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the International Monetary Fund reported
that central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and
Azerbaijan added to their official gold stockpiles in
January. Russia added nearly 400,000 ounces of gold to its
reserves in January. In Europe, traders are awaiting the
outcome of elections in Italy that began over the weekend,
and which could be a harbinger of further progress, or lack
thereof, on stabilizing the European Union sovereign debt
crisis. Late Friday Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded
Great Britain’s credit rating. That news further pressured
the British pound. In China, the HSBC China manufacturing
purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 in February from 52.3
in January. A reading above 50.0 indicates a growing
economy. More key economic data from China is due out
Friday. The market place is awaiting the Tuesday and
Wednesday testimony on the U.S. economy to Congress from
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Traders and investors
will be looking for fresh clues on the direction of U.S.
monetary policy in the coming weeks and months. U.S.
economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago
Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing
outlook survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher early today. The bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage as
prices hover near a five-year high. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,530.00 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,511.70 and then
at 1,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early trading.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,775.00 and
then at last week’s high of 2,786.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,730.50 and then at
Friday’s low of 2,714.25. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer today and hit a fresh five-
year high overnight. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 14,000 and then at 13,950. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 14,100 and
then at 14,150. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 144 7/32
and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 143 22/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at last week’s high of 131.31.5 and
then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 131.24.0 and then at Friday’s low of
131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today on profit
taking after hitting a six-month high overnight. Prices are
also scoring a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart. The greenback bulls had shown solid power recently
but now may be near-term exhausted. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 81.50 and then at the
overnight high of 81.74. Shorter-term support is seen at
81.12 and then at 81.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and seeing short
covering following the recent steep sell off. Prices Friday
hit a six-week low. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$94.46 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $93.50 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight on some short covering and
bargain hunting. The grain markets have been feeling
pressure from the overall selling seen in the raw commodity
market sector, with crude oil and gold leading the downside
price action. Also, there were bearish price and production
forecasts for the grains coming out of the annual USDA Ag
Outlook conference last week. My bias is that there is
still some near-term price pressure to come in the grains,
but I am not longer-term bearish.
 

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