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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 25

Jan 25, 2013

Friday, January 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In the U.S., traders and investors continue to focus on the
quarterly corporate earnings reports. Germany’s stock market
hit a five-year high and the Euro currency rallied Friday
following an Ifo reading on German consumer confidence that
hit a seven-month high. However, in the U.K., economic
growth contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last
year. In Asia, Japan’s stock index rallied on fresh talk
from Japan finance officials who reiterated that their
monetary policy would remain very accommodative. On
Thursday, German Chancellor Merkel hinted she thought Japan
is manipulating its currency. It can be strongly argued that
several major countries are manipulating their currencies
for their own economic benefit. There has been scattered
talk of “currency wars” in the market place recently. If
such discussion would become more widespread in the coming
weeks or months it could produce significant fresh safe-
haven demand for gold. With U.S. and some European stock
indexes at multi-month or multi-year highs at present, the
general investing public is more interested in the stock
market than at any time in years. Combine that with the
calmer world geopolitical climate at present, and safe-haven
assets like gold are being overlooked by many investors. The
annual World Economic Forum is taking place in Davos,
Switzerland. Market watchers will be looking for any
significant news coming out of the meeting. U.S. economic
data due for release Friday is light and includes new
residential home sales.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today
and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,500.00 and
then at 1,510.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,486.80 and then at this week’s low
of 1,475.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early and are
hovering near a three-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of
2,743.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,768.75. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,707.75
and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit another
fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 13,800 and then at 13,750. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,900 and
then at 13,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some
fresh downside momentum today. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 145
even and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
144 16/32 and then at 144 11/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears are
regaining downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at the overnight high
of 132.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 131.24.0 and then at 131.22.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Greenback
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral to bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 80.00 and then at the overnight high of 80.17.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.76
and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and
hovering near a four-month high. Bulls still have some
upside momentum as a six-week-old uptrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $96.92
and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $95.75 and then at $95.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were slightly lower overnight. Grain futures
traders will examine today’s weekly USDA export sales
report. Dry weather in Argentina and the U.S. Plains and
Corn Belt is still bullish for the grains.
 

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