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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 18

Jun 18, 2012

Monday, June 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is digesting the Sunday Greek elections
and as expected the pro-bailout more conservative party
barely won. However, a coalition government still needs to
be formed in Greece. German government officials applauded
Greek elections and the Greece is moving in the right
direction. European stocks were narrowly mixed on the Greek
election news, which is not a ringing endorsement from
European investors. Spain and Italy are now in focus.
Spanish 10-year bond yields rose to above 7% on Monday. A
G-20 meeting in Mexico Monday and Tuesday will be watched
closely for any fresh pronouncements on the EU debt crisis.
With the Greek elections past, attention of the market
place quickly turns to this week’s meeting of the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, which will
determine the next course of U.S. monetary policy. The
meeting starts Tuesday and ends early Wednesday afternoon.
The recent generally downbeat U.S. data has led to growing
expectations for further easing of U.S. monetary policy—
nicknamed “QE3.” Most reckon the Fed will implement some
form of fresh easing of U.S. monetary policy at this week’s
meeting.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh four-week high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Friday’s low of 1,324.40 and
then at 1,305.80. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,586.00 and
then at the June high of 2,598.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,555.75 and then at
Friday’s low of 2,533.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Friday’s low of 12,625 and then at 12,600. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 12,710 and then at 12,750. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 150
10/32 and then at 151 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
150 even and then at the overnight low of 148 12/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
134.05.5 and then at 134.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
133.16.0 and then at the overnight low of 133.07.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are slightly higher in early trading and hit a fresh
four-week low overnight. The bulls have faded. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.11 and then at Friday’s high of
82.30. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 81.71
and then at the overnight low of 81.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower in early trading today.
Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. In July crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then at
$85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$83.00 and then at $82.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are bearish for the grains early today, as the
U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and crude oil prices
are weaker. However, Corn Belt weather remains overall
bullish as the region continues to see overall “net drying”
of the soils despite widely scattered rains over the
weekend and more spotty precip in the forecast. Weather
forecasts for the Corn Belt will be the trump card in the
grains for the next several weeks.
 

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