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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 22

Jun 22, 2012

Friday, June 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place has stabilized a bit following Thursday’s
routs in many markets, including commodities and stock
indexes. But it’s still a “risk-off” mentality in the
market place heading into the weekend. The market place has
so far taken in strike news late Thursday that Moody’s
downgraded the credit ratings of 15 major world banks. The
news was not surprising to traders and investors. This
week’s downbeat economic data from the world’s major
economies, including Thursday’s weak U.S. and China
manufacturing activity, have raised the specter of deflation
worldwide. Deflation is the archenemy of most markets, and
especially of the commodity markets. Remember, however, that
markets are the most bearish at their very bottoms. It’s my
bias that most commodity markets’ prices have already made
by far most of their bear moves, and that they have made or
are close to making major bottoms. But if my notion is
incorrect, meaning commodity market prices have much more
room on the downside in the coming months, then the entire
world is in for some real hurting.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day but has turned down.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at 1,334.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,356.80. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s
low of 1,317.50 and then at 1,300.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures:  The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned
down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,570.00 and then at 2,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,548.50 and then at 2,525.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Thursday’s low of 12,495 and then at 12,450. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,600 and then at 12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are
still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 149 12/32 and then at Thursday’s high of
149 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
148 26/32 and then at Thursday’s low of 148 7/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.14.0 and then at 133.19.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at this week’s
low of 132.27.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early trading. The bulls have
regained upside technical momentum following Thursday’s big
gains. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 82.67 and then at 83.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.40
and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices firmer in early trading today on tepid
short covering after hitting a fresh 8.5-month low of $77.56
overnight. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $79.00 and then at
$80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $77.56 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. Extended
weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for drier and
warmer conditions, and that’s bullish for the grains. A
potentially serious weather market is developing in the
U.S. Corn Belt. The grain markets are also watching the key
“outside markets” that include the U.S. dollar index, crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes. If the stock market sees
strong selling pressure today, then any gains in the grains
would likely be limited.
 

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