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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 28

Mar 28, 2013

Thursday, March 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place has its eyes on Cyprus as banks there
opened for business Thursday after an extended closure
during the Cypriot banking crisis. There was concern that
television cameras focused on Cypriot ATM machines could
show long lines of people waiting to withdraw cash—which
could in turn spook depositors in banks in other European
Union countries. However, as of this writing there were
lines at the ATMs in Cyprus, but the overall situation was
deemed mostly calm. Also in the European Union, Italian
political leaders are meeting Thursday in an effort to form
a coalition government after last month’s elections. In mid-
April Italians will elect a new president. Developments on
this matter will also be watched closely by the market
place. More weak economic data came out of Germany Thursday,
as the jobless rate rose more than expected in March.
European stocks were lower Thursday on the Cyprus and Italy
worries, and the weak German economic data, while Italian
and Spanish bond yields inched higher. U.S. economic data
due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims
report, the third-quarter GDP estimate, corporate profits,
the ISM Chicago business survey, and the Kansas City Fed
manufacturing survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
not far below this week’s five-year high. Bulls have the
firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Monday’s high of 1,560.30 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,549.90 and then at this week’s low of 1,539.20. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today but not
far below the recent six-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the March high of 2,817.50 and then
at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,791.50 and then at this week’s low of
2,771.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering not
far below this week’s all-time record high. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,445 and then at
13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at this week’s high of 14,488 and then at 14,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today but
did hit a three-month high overnight. Bulls now have the
slight near-term technical advantage, amid safe-haven demand
this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 144 31/32 and then at 145 8/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 144 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 143
13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were slightly lower overnight but
did hit another 3.5-month high. Bulls have gained good
upside near-term technical momentum this week. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.11.0 and then
at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and
then at Wednesday’s low of 131.19.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today on profit taking
after hitting a 7.5-month high on Wednesday. The greenback
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 83.520 and then at 83.750.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.225
and then at 83.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and hit a
five-week high overnight. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $97.00 and then at $97.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $96.00 and then
at Wednesday’s low of $95.58. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Today’s the day.
Grain traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA planting
intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports. The
plantings intentions report is one of the most important
USDA grain reports of the year. Look for very active
trading in the grain markets in the aftermath of the 11:00
a.m. CDT USDA data. The corn futures have seen limit daily
price moves in the immediate aftermath of some of the
recent quarterly USDA reports. The USDA data Thursday is
likely to set the tone for the grain futures market prices
for the coming weeks—until U.S. Corn Belt weather patterns
start to dominate.
 

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