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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 14

Mar 14, 2012

Wednesday, March 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The quiet trading week got suddenly active Tuesday
afternoon after an upbeat FOMC statement from the Federal
Reserve and after J.P. Morgan increased its dividend
following a successful stress test result. The J.P. Morgan
and FOMC news gave the market place a solid dose of better
risk appetite. The Tuesday news is one more early clue that
the U.S. economy is in a solid recovery and growing.
Importantly, the U.S. Treasury market also appears to be
recognizing the better economic environment as T-Bond and
T-Note futures prices tumbled Tuesday afternoon.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh four-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,400.00 and
then at 1,415.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at the overnight low of 1,386.60 and then at Tuesday’s low
of 1,366.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh 11-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,700.00 and then at 2,715.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 2,675.00 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh four-year high overnight.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,200 and then at 13,250. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,100 and then more stops just
below support at Tuesday’s low of 12,925. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh 4.5-month low
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low
of 137 19/32 and then at 137 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at 138 even and then at 138 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 3.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh nearly three-month
low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 130.01.0 and then at 130.10.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 129.12.5 and then at
129.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hit a
fresh seven-week high overnight. The bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.88 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.57 and then at this week’s low of 80.10.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In
April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $107.00 and then at this week’s high of
$107.56. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$106.00 and then at this week’s low of $105.38. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading, on some
profit taking. Soybean and corn bulls have good upside
technical momentum. Wheat is the laggard. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bearish for the grains today, as crude
oil prices are steady and the U.S. dollar index is firmer.
Focus in the grain markets is turning to the March 30 USDA
planting intentions report.
 

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