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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 2

Mar 02, 2012

Friday, March 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Note: I am out of the office this morning. My friend and fellow analyst/trader Ken
Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think
you'll also benefit from Ken's work.--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower due to light profit taking in
overnight trading as it consolidates some of this winter’s rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off December?s low, weekly resistance crossing
at 2797.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 2581.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at
2649.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 2797.00.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2609.85. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2581.28.

The March S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking in overnight
trading. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s
low, weekly resistance crossing at 1440.70 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1355.17 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 1377.00. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing at 1440.70. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1355.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 1334.30.

INTEREST RATES

June T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this
week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, June
needs to close above 144-23 or below 138-26 to confirm a breakout of a
three-month old trading range and point the direction of the next
trending move. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 144-00.
Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 144-23. First support
is January’s low crossing at 139-11. Second support is December?s low
crossing at 138-26.

ENERGY MARKETS

April crude oil was lower overnight after reports of a pipeline
explosion in Saudi Arabia were unconfirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.64
are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April
extends February’s rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next
upside target. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 110.55.
Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is
Wednesday’s low crossing at 104.84. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 103.64.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off January’s high. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.02 would signal
that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off
January’s high, the 62% retracement level of the August-January rally
crossing at 77.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 79.02. Second resistance is February’s
high crossing at 80.24. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at
78.12. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-January
rally crossing at 77.39.

GRAINS

May corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as traders appear
unwilling to chase the market higher ahead of next week's USDA crop
report. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If May extends this week’s rally, January’s high crossing at 6.72 1/2 is
the next upside target. Closes above the early-January high of 6.72 1/2
would open the door for a larger-degree rally into spring. Closes below
the reaction low crossing at 6.26 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January’s
low crossing at 5.99 1/2 later this spring. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 6.61 1/2. Second resistance is January’s
high crossing at 6.72 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 6.45. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6.26.

May wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s
rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.53 1/2.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally,
February’s high crossing at 6.96 is May’s next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.52 3/4 would confirm that
a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high
crossing at 6.74 1/2. Second resistance is February’s high crossing at
6.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.53 1/2.
Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.52 3/4.

May soybeans were lower due to light profit taking in overnight trading
as it consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the
rally off January’s low, the 62% retracement level of the August-
December decline crossing at 13.33 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.73 1/2 would confirm that
a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high
crossing at 13.24 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of
the August-December decline crossing at 13.33 3/4. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 12.97 1/2. Second support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 12.73 1/2.

 

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