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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 29

Nov 29, 2011

Tuesday, November 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Several commodity futures markets, including the grains and
softs, have seen strong selling pressure recently and prices have
hit multi-month lows. Many are now pondering if these beaten-down
commodity markets have bottomed out. My bias is that they have.
However, the U.S. stock indexes will be the key. If the stock
indexes can continue to rebound, then the commodity markets will
follow. If the stock indexes trend lower most commodity markets
will languish at weaker levels.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,206.00 and then at 1,214.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,186.40 and then at this week’s low of 1,170.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,245.00 and then at 2,275.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,212.75 and then at
2,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at
Monday’s low of 11,425. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 11,600 and then at 11,650. Shorter-term
moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading a bit. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are stilll bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of
142 26/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 143 20/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.29.5
and then at 130.08.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low
of 129.18.5 and then at Monday’s low of 129.02.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower again in early trading
today, on more of a corrective pullback from recent gains. Dollar
index bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
but are fading a bit this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-
term technical resistance at 79.50 and then at the overnight high
of 79.875. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.10 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In January crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $99.30 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.23 and
then at $97.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. The grains are
still in a near-term bearish technical posture and are still
following the outside markets. The key outside markets are
bullish for grains early today—-lower U.S. dollar index and
firmer crude oil and stock index prices. If the U.S. stock
indexes start to trend higher again, then so likely will the
grain markets.
 

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