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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 4

Oct 04, 2012

Thursday, October 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Bank of England left its interest
rates unchanged, as expected. Traders are awaiting the
Thursday press conference from European Central Bank
president Mario Draghi. Most analysts expect the ECB to keep
its interest rates unchanged. On the geopolitical front,
fresh violence in Syria and rising tensions between Iran and
Turkey pushed the market place more toward risk aversion
overnight. China is on holiday this week, celebrating Golden
Week. Important U.S. economic data is on tap to close out
the week, including the FOMC minutes on Thursday afternoon
and the employment report on Friday morning. Recent FOMC
minutes releases have been very market-sensitive. Friday’s
jobs report is expected to find the key non-farm payrolls
figure rising by 118,000 in September. U.S. economic data
due for release Thursday includes the FOMC minutes from the
last meeting, the Challenger job cut report, the weekly
jobless claims report, ICSC chain store sales, and
manufacturers’ shipments and orders.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,456.60 and then at 1,461.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,444.10 and then
at Wednesday’s low of 1,436.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight high of
2,826.75 and then at 2,836.25. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,808.25 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 2,788.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,426 and then at 13,400. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,500 and then at
this week’s high of 13,525. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 28/32 and then
at last week’s high of 150 9/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at the overnight low of 149 11/32 and then at this week’s
low of 149 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 133.24.5 and then at last week’s high of 133.27.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 133.16.5 and
then at this week’s low of 133.11.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.00 and then
at this week’s high of 80.25. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 79.77 and then at this week’s low of
79.55. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering
from Wednesday’s strong losses. Bears are still presently in
near-term technical control. In November Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $90.00 and
then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $88.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of $87.70.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on some short
covering from recent losses. The key “outside markets” are
in a bullish posture for the grains early today, as the
U.S. dollar index is weaker and crude oil prices are
firmer. The grain market bulls have faded amid harvest
pressure and weakening worldwide demand for grains at
higher price levels. Traders will closely examine this
morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
 

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