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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report

Oct 13, 2011

Thursday, October 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Here are my market biases as of today: the grain markets have put
in harvest lows, the U.S. stock indexes have put in seasonal
lows, gold and crude oil have also put in market lows—and all
these markets will trade at least sideways or higher in a choppy
fashion into the end of the year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,204.20 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 1,215.50. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at Wednesday’s low of 1,180.80 and then at this week’s
low of 1,156.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are still neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,311.00 and then at the
September high of 2,332.50. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Wednesday’s low of 2,274.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of
2,262.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at
11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 11,400 and then at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 138
19/32 even and then at 138 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 139 18/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 128.14.0 and then at 129.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 128.00.0 and then at this week’s low
of 127.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today
and did hit another fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls have
faded badly recently and bears have some downside technical
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance
at 78.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 78.24. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 77.09 and then at 77.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. The bulls still
have some upside technical momentum to suggest prices can
continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. In
November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $83.50 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. Bulls are fading a bit
following Tuesday’s big gains and following Wednesday’s mostly
bearish monthly USDA supply and demand report. It is still my
bias that "harvest lows" are in place for the grains and that
prices can work at least sideways or higher into the end of the
year.
 

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