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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Tuesday Evening, October 4

Oct 05, 2011

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com. I
enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today's Hot Market" item on my
website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's
significant developments in the U.S. futures
markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down
$1.82 at $121.50 today. Prices closed nearer the
session low today and saw some heavy profit-taking
pressure from recent gains that saw prices hit a
fresh 2.5-month high on Monday. The key "outside
markets" were bearish for the cattle market again
today as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
weaker, and the U.S. dollar index traded firmer.
Cattle bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week's
high of $123.75. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at
$120.00. First resistance is seen at $122.00 and
then at $122.50. First support is seen at today's
low of $121.20 and then at $120.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

November feeder cattle closed down $1.97 at $140.87
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw profit taking after hitting a three-month
high on Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at the
contract high of $145.90. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at
$140.00. First resistance is seen at $141.50 and
then at today's high of $142.40. First support is
seen at today's low of $140.20 and then at $140.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December lean hogs closed steady at $86.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Monday hit a fresh seven-week high. The key
"outside markets" were bearish for the hog market
again today as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were lower, while the U.S. dollar index traded
firmer. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at this week's high of
$88.25. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $84.50. First resistance is
seen at $87.25 and then at today's high of $87.70.
First support is seen at this week' low of $86.45
and then at $86.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 7 1/2
cents at $5.85 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-
range and closed at a fresh 6.5-month low close
today. The key "outside markets" were again bearish
for the corn market today as crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were lower, while the U.S. dollar
index traded firmer. Serious near-term technical
damage has been inflicted in corn recently. A steep
five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily
chart. However, my bias is that a seasonal "harvest
low" is close at hand for the corn market. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.15. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at
this week's low of $5.72 1/4. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today's high of $5.93 3/4
and then at $6.00. First support is seen at today's
low of $5.77 and then at $5.72 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

November soybeans closed down 20 1/4 cents at
$11.57 1/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the
session low today and hit another fresh 10-month
low. The key "outside markets" were again bearish
for the soybean market today as crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the U.S.
dollar index traded firmer. Serious near-term chart
damage has occurred in soybeans recently. Prices
are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. My bias is that a seasonal harvest low
is also close at hand for soybeans. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November
prices above psychological resistance at $12.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $11.00. First resistance
is seen at today's high of $11.79 and then at this
week's high of $11.89 3/4. First support is seen at
today's low of $11.52 and then at $11.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

December soybean meal closed down $4.50 at $302.50
today. Prices closed near the session low today and
hit another fresh 10-month low. Serious near-term
technical damage has been inflicted recently. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$300.00. First resistance comes in at $305.00 and
then at today's high of $308.00. First support is
seen at today's low of $301.30 and then at $300.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December bean oil closed down 74 points at 49.26
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and hit another fresh 10.5-month low. The key
"outside markets" were bearish for the bean oil
market again today as crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes were lower, while the U.S. dollar index
traded firmer. Bean oil bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance
is seen at 49.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
First support is seen at today's low of 48.91 cents
and then at 48.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 16 cents at
$6.03 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and closed at a fresh 15-month low close.
The key "outside markets" were bearish for the
wheat market again today as crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were lower, while the U.S. dollar
index traded firmer. Serious chart damage has been
inflicted in wheat recently. Wheat bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.50 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
major psychological support at $6.00. First
resistance is seen at this week's high of $6.23 and
then at $6.30. First support lies at $6.05 and then
at today's low of $5.96 3/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 15 1/2 cents at
$6.86 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today
and hit another fresh 14-month low. Serious near-
term chart damage has been inflicted recently.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.20. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $6.50.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $6.95
1/2 and then at this week's high of $7.05 1/2.
First support is seen at today's low of $6.79 and
then at $6.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December oats closed down 5 cents at $3.23 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
a fresh 13-month low. Bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid chart support at
$3.10. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today's
low of $3.20 1/4 and then at $3.15. First
resistance is seen at $3.25 and then at today's
high of $3.29 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 4 points at 24.81
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The key "outside markets" were bearish for
the sugar market again today as crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were lower, while the U.S.
dollar index traded higher. Prices are still in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week's high of 26.44 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 24.01 cents. First
resistance is seen at 25.00 cents and then at this
week's high of 25.29 cents. First support is seen
at today's low of 24.31 cents and then at 24.01
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December coffee closed up 330 points at 226.75
cents. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Serious near-term
chart damage has occurred in coffee recently. Bears
still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at
last week's high of 246.55 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 215.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today's
high of 230.20 cents and then at 232.50 cents.
First support is seen at 225.00 cents and then at
today's low of 221.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

December cocoa closed up $26 at $2,601 a ton.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering after hitting a fresh contract low
early on. Prices also scored a bullish "outside
day" up on the daily bar chart today. If there is
strong follow-through buying on Wednesday, then a
bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart
would be confirmed. That would be one early clue
that a market bottom is in place. But right now the
cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750.
The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,500. First resistance is
seen at today's high of $2,619 and then at $2,650.
First support is seen at today's contract low of
$2,540 and then at $2,525. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

December cotton closed up 256 points at 101.77
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Cotton bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at 105.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push prices below solid
technical support at the July low of 93.20 cents.
First support is seen at 100.00 and then at last
week's low of 98.21 cents. First resistance is seen
at today's high of 103.21 cents and then at 105.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November orange juice closed up 185 points at
$1.5190 today. Prices closed nearer the session
high today and saw short covering in a bear market.
The FCOJ bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. A bear flag pattern has formed on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $1.6000.
The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the contract low of $1.4295.
First resistance is seen at this week's high of
$1.5375 and then at $1.5500. First support is seen
at $1.5000 and then at last week's low of $1.4850.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

November lumber futures closed up $2.80 at $215.80
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw more short covering in a bear market.
Prices last Friday hit a fresh contract low. The
bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$200.00. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $230.00. First
resistance is seen at $218.00 and then at $220.00.
First support is seen at the contract low of
$211.10 and then at $210.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $42.90
an ounce at $1,614.50 today. Prices closed near the
session low today and scored a bearish "outside
day" down on the daily bar chart, whereby the high
was higher and low was lower than the previous
day's trading range. Bearish "outside markets"--
lower crude oil and a firmer U.S. dollar index--did
help to pressure gold today. Gold market bears have
gained the slight near-term technical advantage. A
bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar
chart. Prices are also still in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside technical objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $1,705.40.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is
closing prices below strong technical support at
the September low of $1,535.00. First resistance is
seen at $1,625.00 and then at $1,650.00. First
support is seen at $1,600.00 and then at $1,585.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December silver futures closed down $1.125 an ounce
at $29.67 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today. Prices were pressured by bearish
"outside markets"--a firmer U.S. dollar index and
lower crude oil prices. Prices are also in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. A
bearish pennant pattern has also formed on the
daily bar chart for silver. Silver bulls' next
upside price objective is producing a close above
strong technical resistance at last week's high of
$33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week's low of
$26.15. First resistance is seen at $30.00 and then
at this week's high of $31.43. Next support is seen
at $29.09 and then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 685 points 308.35
cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
closed at a fresh 16-month low close. The key
"outside markets" were bearish for copper today--
lower crude oil and stock indexes and a firmer U.S.
dollar index. Serious near-term chart damage has
occurred recently. Copper bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as a two-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 300.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at today's high of 315.50
cents and then at this week's high of 317.90 cents.
First support is seen at today's low of 303.60
cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $2.19 a
barrel at $75.42 today. Prices closed nearer the
session low today and hit a fresh 16-month low. A
lower U.S. stock market and firmer U.S. dollar
index pressured crude oil again today. The crude
oil bears are in firm near-term technical control.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $80.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below
psychological support at $70.00. First resistance
is seen at $76.00 and then at $77.00. First support
is seen at today's low of $74.95 and then at
$74.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

November heating oil closed down 456 points at
$2.7065 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and hit a fresh eight-month low. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.8500. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.6000. First resistance lies
at $2.7250 and then at today's high of $2.7559.
First support is seen at today's low of $2.6975 and
then at $2.6750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 359
points at $2.4759. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and hit a fresh seven-week low. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.6000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the August low of $2.4423.
First resistance is seen at $2.5000 and then at
today's high of $2.5289. First support is seen at
today's low of $2.4673 and then at $2.4423.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

November natural gas closed up 2.3 cents at $3.64
today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The
bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week's high of $3.926.
The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at $3.50. First resistance is seen at this
week's high of $3.699 and then at $3.80. First
support is seen at today's and the contract low of
$3.591 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 33 points at 1.3249 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Prices today and hit
another fresh nine-month low. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3500. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.3000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of
1.3312 and then at this week's high of 1.3379. Next
support is seen at 1.3200 and then at today's low
of 1.3142. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 53 points at
1.3010 today. Prices closed near the session low
today. Trading remains choppy at higher price
levels. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the contract high of 1.3180. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the September low
of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week's
high of 1.3086 and then at 1.3100. First support is
seen at 1.3000 and then at this week's low of
1.2940. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 58 points at
1.0851 today. Prices closed near mid-range today
and hit a fresh six-month low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1250.
The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
today's high of 1.0909 and then at 1.1000. First
support is seen at today's low of 1.0815 and then
at 1.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 129
points at .9354 today. Prices closed nearer the
session low today and hit another fresh 11-month
low. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at .9800. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at
.9250. First resistance is seen at today's high of
.9456 and then at .9500. Next support is seen at
today's low of .9302 and then at .9250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 109 points
at .9398 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low again today and hit another fresh 13-month low.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at last week's high of .9839. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at
.9250. First resistance is seen at today's high of
.9498 and then at this week's high of .9570. First
support is seen at today's low of .9367 and then at
.9300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The December British pound closed down 68 points at
1.5389 today. Prices closed near mid-range today.
Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage
as prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week's high of
1.5706. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at
the December low of 1.5305. First resistance is
seen at today's high of 1.5455 and then at 1.5500.
First support is seen at today's low of 1.5330 and
then at the September low of 1.5316. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 5 points
at 79.99 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today after hitting another fresh eight-month
high early on. The bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at
81.00. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week's low of 77.83. Next
resistance lies at today's high of 80.43 and then
at 81.00. First support is seen at today's low of
79.75 and then at this week's low of 79.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 9/32 at 145 even
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bond
market bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are still no early clues
to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week's low of 139 26/32. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the contract high of 147 even. First resistance is
seen at 145 12/32 and then at 146 even. First
support is seen at today's low of 144 5/32 and then
at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 5.0 (32nds) at
130.26.0 today. Prices closed near mid-range today.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is producing
a close below solid technical support at 129.02.0.
First resistance is seen at 131.03.5 and then at
today's high of 131.12.5. First support is seen at
today's low of 130.17.0 and then at this week's low
of 130.05.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock
indexes closed higher and near their daily highs
today in a dramatic last-hour rebound from early
losses. Importantly, the U.S. stock indexes have
seen some prices dip below but today saw them close
above the August lows. If all three stock indexes
drop and close below their August lows, that would
be extremely bearish for the stock indexes and for
most commodity markets. Bulls would gain some
upside momentum by producing good follow-through
buying on Wednesday. But bulls still have heavy
lifting to do in the near term to suggest near-term
price uptrends can be sustained.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 48.25 at
2,113.50 today. Prices closed near the session high
today after hitting a fresh five-week low early on.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 2,332.50. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August low of
1,972.25. First resistance is seen at today's high
of 2,126.75 and then at this week's high of
2,148.00. First support is seen at 2,100.00 and
then at 2,062.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 27.30 at
1,113.60. Prices closed near the session high today
after hitting a fresh 13-month low early on. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at last week's high
of 1,189.80. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at today's low of 1,068.50. First
resistance is seen at today's high of 1,119.50 and
then at this week's high of 1,133.00. First support
is seen at 1,100.00 and then at 1,085.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

The Dow futures closed up 154 points at 10,683
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
after hitting a fresh 12-month low early on. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at
11,000. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at today's low of 10,745. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today's high of 10,745 and then
at 10,800. First support is seen at 10,600 and then
at 10,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new
customers and for an explanation of my Market
Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do
not manage any trading accounts other than my own
personal account. It is my goal to point out to you
potential trading opportunities. However, it is up
to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to
initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of
any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss
are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading
(and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures
and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE,
COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any
money in futures or options contracts, you should
consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial
payment to a broker. You should understand
commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other
aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff

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