http://www.agweb.com/blogs/ Ted is the Vice President in charge of the Zaner Ag Hedge Group and specializes in agricultural hedging employing various strategies using futures, futures spreads, outright options and option combinations. He believes it is paramount to be able to use different strategies to adapt to market conditions. Ted works with large to mid size grain and livestock producers and end users in North, Central and South America. AgWeb.comhttp://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/planting_progress/For my brave friends in Michigan who have started planting corn, please call me as I would love to buy you lunch! HoRah! Ted SeifriedMon, 02 Apr 2012 15:57:00 GMT26537http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/in_wake_of_the_410_usda_supply__demand_report/Early on it seemed that the attitude of the trade was that even though the USDA left corn stocks unchanged, they certainly would have to lower their number in months to come. Then the day truned.Ted SeifriedTue, 10 Apr 2012 16:52:00 GMT26603http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/soybeans_post_a_new_high_close_as_corn_is_unimpressive/May soybeans were able to put up the highest close we have seen since September of last year.Ted SeifriedThu, 12 Apr 2012 15:57:00 GMT26628http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/planting_progress_417/The USDA released the weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon which came a day late due to an electrical fire at the USDA. No Comment on that... With ideal weather in most areas through the bulk of March and April Traders were looking for corn to be 18-22% planted at this point, compared to 5% [...]Ted SeifriedTue, 17 Apr 2012 16:39:00 GMT26670http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_finds_tech_support,_help_from_china/Both old crop and new crop corn contracts were aimed at testing major support levels after yesterday's close.Ted SeifriedThu, 19 Apr 2012 17:17:00 GMT26698http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/new-crop_soybeans_post_a_new_high_close/If the November soybean contract embarks on a new leg higher, it could produce another 50¢ to 70¢ upside, but it would need to happen in the next few trading days.Ted SeifriedTue, 01 May 2012 17:32:00 GMT26821http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/new_crop_corn_tests_recent_lows/This could be the beginning of a triple bottom formation but, more likely...Ted SeifriedThu, 03 May 2012 15:22:00 GMT26850http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/pre_usda_report_thoughts/The average trade guesses are looking for large changes compared to last months report and I wonder how willing the USDA will be to...Ted SeifriedWed, 09 May 2012 18:03:00 GMT26919http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_catches_a_nice_bounce_off_of_lows/Bullish fundamental news events may be few and far between. However, we still have China.Ted SeifriedTue, 15 May 2012 12:00:00 GMT26982http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/november_soybeans_struggle_to_rally_with_other_grains/Soybeans have worked hard to buy acreage away from corn since the March 30th USDA planting projections report and...Ted SeifriedThu, 17 May 2012 15:42:00 GMT27003http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/old_crop_grains_get_no_love_today/Grains as a whole were under significant pressure today but...Ted SeifriedTue, 22 May 2012 17:22:00 GMT27061http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/july_corn_taking_heat_today/July corn, by all means, is supposed to be one of the most bullish fundamental set ups in the grains...Ted SeifriedThu, 24 May 2012 16:17:00 GMT27084http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/planting_progress_529/With hot and dry conditions at the end of last week, traders are looking closely at...Ted SeifriedTue, 29 May 2012 16:09:00 GMT27111http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/december_corn_falls_just_short_of_a_buy_signal_today/Even though we did not see a buy signal today, the door is open for the possibility of a...Ted SeifriedThu, 31 May 2012 16:33:00 GMT27136http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/was_that_a_bear_trap_in_december_corn_today/This is an outside reversal down day and we even closed below support at Fridays recent low of 508 1/4...Ted SeifriedTue, 05 Jun 2012 19:06:00 GMT27177http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/new_crop_corn_and_soybeans_breakout/Despite another disappointing export sales report row crops were able post a strong up day and break out above resistance levels...Ted SeifriedThu, 07 Jun 2012 17:14:00 GMT27198http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/planting_progress_611/Traders are looking closely at the effect that the hot and dry weather might of had on the condition of crops. However, many of the dry areas did get some rains today.Ted SeifriedMon, 11 Jun 2012 16:32:00 GMT27223http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/new_crop_corn_and_soybeans_under_pressure_from_weather/However, we are still going to see some of the hottest temps of the year in front of the rain chances we see in the forecast.Ted SeifriedWed, 13 Jun 2012 15:13:00 GMT27241http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/rain_makes_grain,_no_rain_makes_rally/Corn and soybeans have seen a dramatic rally in the last two days.Ted SeifriedTue, 19 Jun 2012 16:21:00 GMT27288http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/death_to_the_dome_of_death/Some of the dry areas got some relief that may carry them over for a few days at least. The bigger question here is how did this happen? Ted SeifriedThu, 21 Jun 2012 15:45:00 GMT27307http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_up_sharply_on_hotter,_drier_forecast/The cooling trend we had seen in the forecast late last week looks to be short lived and a blast of hot air looks likely to follow the mild...Ted SeifriedMon, 25 Jun 2012 14:17:00 GMT27338http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/crop_progress_72/The USDA confirmed traders fears with another sharp decline in corn and soybean conditions... Ted SeifriedMon, 02 Jul 2012 15:53:00 GMT27399http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_gap_higher_on_hot_temps/There is no doubt that the drought or near drought like conditions and scorching hot temps in many areas has caused a decline in yield potential. The question is how much... Ted SeifriedThu, 05 Jul 2012 16:27:00 GMT27427http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_cool_off_in_front_of_usda/There is no doubt that the drought or near drought like conditions and scorching hot temps in many areas has caused a decline in yield potential. The question is...Ted SeifriedTue, 10 Jul 2012 17:09:00 GMT27460http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/usda_sends_grains_on_a_wild_ride/Corn and soybeans had a huge range today ending with key reversals. In a surprise move the USDA...Ted SeifriedWed, 11 Jul 2012 17:56:00 GMT27472http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_cool_off_in_front_of_rain_chances/Grains had a relatively quiet day today, compared to the last month and a half...Ted SeifriedTue, 17 Jul 2012 14:43:00 GMT27511http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/things_are_getting_a_little_weird_up_here/Corn and soybeans broke sharply off the highs coming into the pit session and things got stranger as the day went on...Ted SeifriedThu, 19 Jul 2012 18:28:00 GMT27528http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_pull_off_highs_in_a_big_way/I have gotten a lot of calls today asking if that the high...Ted SeifriedTue, 24 Jul 2012 18:44:00 GMT27556http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_still_under_pressure/Low volume trade and continued wild volatility ended in another...Ted SeifriedThu, 26 Jul 2012 17:40:00 GMT27570http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/quiet_turn_around_tuesday/It seems the grains are taking a bit of a much needed break in the wild volatility. However, it could also be...Ted SeifriedTue, 31 Jul 2012 17:42:00 GMT27601http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/for_the_usda_report/As far as this report is concerned, my views have changed a bit in the last few days...Ted SeifriedThu, 09 Aug 2012 18:03:00 GMT27663http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/big_test_for_a_bull_market/Corn, Wheat and Soybeans have been on the defensive since the first few minutes after last Friday's key USDA report. The thing about that report was that although...Ted SeifriedTue, 14 Aug 2012 18:47:00 GMT27701http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/five-year_study_on_soybean_price_trends/After seeing the updated USDA carryover numbers on last Friday's report, it occurred to me that we were not looking at the lowest soybean ending stocks numbers we have seen from the USDA in the last five years.Ted SeifriedThu, 16 Aug 2012 14:45:00 GMT27724http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_and_soybeans_post_new_record_high_closes/The breakout to new highs in soybeans and new high close in corn could be suggesting another...Ted SeifriedTue, 21 Aug 2012 16:40:00 GMT27772http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/another_key_reversal_in_november_soybeans/Grains were lower today as the November soybeans posted a third key reversal in a little over a...Ted SeifriedThu, 23 Aug 2012 15:00:00 GMT27794http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_struggle_to_find_direction/After a flurry of news late last week with Pro Farmer and Informa numbers grain markets have begun this week unsure of any sense of direction...Ted SeifriedTue, 28 Aug 2012 16:44:00 GMT27828http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_and_beans_have_conflicting_agendas/Row crops were moving in different directions today with soybeans making new record highs and corn failing at...Ted SeifriedThu, 30 Aug 2012 15:16:00 GMT27847http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_are_having_a_hard_time_holding_gains/When I looked at the night session trade after a holiday weekend I thought I was seeing the making of another sharp rally day in the grains...Ted SeifriedTue, 04 Sep 2012 18:22:00 GMT27898http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/what_effect_will_the_fed_decision_have_on_grains/To QE3 or not QE3? Ted SeifriedThu, 06 Sep 2012 15:19:00 GMT27921http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/thoughts_before_the_september_usda_report/Tomorrow morning the USDA will weigh in with a fresh view on the grain situation...Ted SeifriedTue, 11 Sep 2012 17:57:00 GMT27954http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/as_the_dust_settles/It will take time to know if QE3 is successful or not, but for today the effect on grains was...Ted SeifriedThu, 13 Sep 2012 15:26:00 GMT27980http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/under_pressure/Grains have been under pressure to start the week after a flurry of...Ted SeifriedTue, 18 Sep 2012 17:55:00 GMT28024http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/soybeans_break_technical_support/Not only did the soybeans close below key support, but it was also an...Ted SeifriedThu, 20 Sep 2012 15:03:00 GMT28039http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/are_grains_setting_up_for_a_bounce/Are corn, wheat and soybeans setting up for a technical bounce? Ted SeifriedTue, 25 Sep 2012 18:09:00 GMT28078http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/expectations_for_the_usda_grain_stocks_report/The day started with strength in soybeans coming from news that china had...Ted SeifriedThu, 27 Sep 2012 15:19:00 GMT28099http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_and_soybeans_have_fundamental_differences/Corn is holding below the 20-day moving average, but if it can break through, it could...Ted SeifriedTue, 02 Oct 2012 17:41:00 GMT28159http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/soybeans_bounce_off_lows,_corn_struggles_to_extend_rally/Soybeans had been down 97 cents since last Friday's close before...Ted SeifriedThu, 04 Oct 2012 14:32:00 GMT28180http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grain_rallies_have_a_hard_time_holding_water/For the second consecutive day grains tried to rally early only to find...Ted SeifriedTue, 09 Oct 2012 18:09:00 GMT28221http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/the_usda_gives_corn_new_life,_soybeans_try_to_follow/Today's report gave new wind to the bull sails as we saw the lowest...Ted SeifriedThu, 11 Oct 2012 15:21:00 GMT28239http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/where_is_the_usda_rally/The tightest corn carryover we have seen so far this year should be enough to test $8.00, right? Well...Ted SeifriedTue, 16 Oct 2012 17:03:00 GMT28277http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/protecting_your_growth_strategy/It is pretty common for one extreme in market prices to be followed within a year or two by the opposite extreme. After record high prices in Corn and Soybeans this year it seems very possible that...Ted SeifriedThu, 18 Oct 2012 15:26:00 GMT28292http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/what_did_the_grains_tell_us_today/Soybeans ending the day up 7 cents doesn't look like much at face value, however...Ted SeifriedTue, 23 Oct 2012 18:02:00 GMT28338http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_back_off,_corn_closes_below_support/Grains were on the defensive today with front month corn, wheat and soybeans all closing...Ted SeifriedThu, 25 Oct 2012 15:29:00 GMT28359http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_still_holding_support__for_now/For the 3rd day in a row corn closed right on top of its 100-day moving average...Ted SeifriedTue, 30 Oct 2012 18:09:00 GMT28398http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_rally_alongside_markets_on_election_day/The idea here is that another 4 years of spend happy Obamanomics will continue to...Ted SeifriedTue, 06 Nov 2012 16:38:00 GMT28479http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_mixed_up_pre-usda/So, is the expectation for a quiet report day tomorrow? I certainly think not.Ted SeifriedThu, 08 Nov 2012 15:19:00 GMT28503http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_not_sure_which_way_to_turn_on_turnaround_tueasday/With corn closing up 5 cents, soybeans up 4 and wheat down 6 3/4 today does not look like much from...Ted SeifriedTue, 13 Nov 2012 17:53:00 GMT28565http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/quiet_down_day_in_the_grains,_more_to_come/I think today tells us more about this market then the sleepy day would suggest...Ted SeifriedThu, 15 Nov 2012 15:29:00 GMT28591http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_continue_to_bounce_off_recent_lows/We are not getting too aggressive quite yet as we wait to see the extent of...Ted SeifriedTue, 20 Nov 2012 17:02:00 GMT28646http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_continue_to_rally_off_recent_lows/Today corn was up over 12 cents with wheat and soybeans well over 20 cents higher...Ted SeifriedTue, 27 Nov 2012 18:03:00 GMT28697http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/will_grains_fail_at_key_resistance/There is no better buy trigger then the fear of higher prices...Ted SeifriedThu, 29 Nov 2012 17:53:00 GMT28721http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_holding_support_for_now/However, spreads in the grains were showing a bear market mentality even as markets...Ted SeifriedTue, 04 Dec 2012 15:16:00 GMT28757http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/is_the_low_in_for_soybeans/In less then a month soybeans have rallied almost $1.20...Ted SeifriedThu, 06 Dec 2012 15:18:00 GMT28781http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/usda_puts_grains_on_the_defensive/You have to wonder where corn and wheat would be if it were not for...Ted SeifriedTue, 11 Dec 2012 20:02:00 GMT28829http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_and_wheat_hold_support,_soybeans_fail_at_resistance/Mixed markets today with soybeans attempting to...Ted SeifriedThu, 13 Dec 2012 15:23:00 GMT28854http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_struggle_to_rally_off_lows_pre_usda/I would think that we could see some profit taking on...Ted SeifriedTue, 08 Jan 2013 17:14:00 GMT29049http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/what_i_expect_from_the_usda/This will be the first time we have had live trading while a January report has come out...Ted SeifriedThu, 10 Jan 2013 15:25:00 GMT29072http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_springboard_off_lows/Is there a need to best the drought stricken summer highs? Ted SeifriedTue, 15 Jan 2013 18:04:00 GMT29120http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/grains_back_off_resistance,_wait_for_sa_weather_news/If I had suggested in December that corn would have a shot at...Ted SeifriedThu, 17 Jan 2013 15:11:00 GMT29139http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/mixed_grain_trade,_looking_for_direction_from_sa/This could be setting up for a longer term double...Ted SeifriedTue, 22 Jan 2013 15:14:00 GMT29174http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/the_dilemma_grain_hedgers_face/The last year has a lot of guys scratching their heads about... Ted SeifriedThu, 24 Jan 2013 15:27:00 GMT29195http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/waiting_for_rain/As of the noon forecast there is a rain event...Ted SeifriedTue, 29 Jan 2013 13:31:00 GMT29234http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_use_for_ethanol/We have talked a lot the past few months about corn exports lagging behind...Ted SeifriedThu, 31 Jan 2013 14:58:00 GMT29254http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/are_grains_headed_to_new_lows/I intend to go into further detail and analysis about the USDA Baseline Projections in my...Ted SeifriedTue, 12 Feb 2013 18:16:00 GMT29370http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/is_the_usda_predicting_a_farm_land_bubble_burst/What is extremely interesting is what the USDA is projecting going out...Ted SeifriedThu, 14 Feb 2013 15:20:00 GMT29392http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/was_it_a_great_day_to_buy_corn_or_sell_soybeans/So, the question is are the soybeans predicting a rally for...Ted SeifriedTue, 19 Feb 2013 15:12:00 GMT29420http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/its_an_old_crop_soybean_thing/But why are the old crop soybeans so strong, and how long will it last?Ted SeifriedThu, 21 Feb 2013 15:20:00 GMT29450http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/is_december_corn_predicting_a_rally/Today's trade did not seem like much in the way of predicting market direction but December corn may have just given us a clue.Ted SeifriedTue, 26 Feb 2013 15:39:00 GMT29490http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/tight_stocks_in_grains_take_center_stage_in_delivery_period/It seems that there could be commercials looking to... Ted SeifriedThu, 28 Feb 2013 15:16:00 GMT29513http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/time_might_be_running_out_for_a_grain_rally/If the grains are going to mount a rally it might need to happen sooner then later...Ted SeifriedTue, 05 Mar 2013 16:27:00 GMT29550http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/march_usda_report_thoughts/If there is a surprise it could be a lower then expected...Ted SeifriedThu, 07 Mar 2013 15:25:00 GMT29577http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_and_wheat_finally_get_a_bounce,_soybeans_take_a_break/Is this a change in trend or a chance to sell?Ted SeifriedTue, 12 Mar 2013 18:24:00 GMT29616http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/beware_the_trap_of_switching_corn_acres_to_soybeans/Do not misunderstand this market, it is not asking for...Ted SeifriedThu, 14 Mar 2013 15:26:00 GMT29632http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/how_bullish_could_next_thursdays_grain_stocks_report_be/Is there enough unexpected domestic feed demand to sustain a 50 cent rally in both corn and wheat?Ted SeifriedThu, 21 Mar 2013 15:29:00 GMT29685http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/buy_the_rumor,_sell_the_fact/Is the USDA going to give us a super bullish stocks report that will send grains on another leg higher?Ted SeifriedTue, 26 Mar 2013 19:16:00 GMT29753http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/what_we_need_to_take_away_from_this_usda_report/Certainly the surprise the USDA gave us today added to the sharp sell off in grains but the gravity of this report remains - this is a game changer.Ted SeifriedThu, 28 Mar 2013 17:46:00 GMT29780http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/as_the_dust_settles_-_remember_one_thing/It is time to take a much needed break from watching the markets for the better part of 24 hours a day. But as you do, take some time to reflect and look forward.Ted SeifriedTue, 02 Apr 2013 18:02:00 GMT29811http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/are_we_due_for_a_pre-planting_bounce/Could we be setting up for a little bit of a spring rally? We could sure use one.Ted SeifriedThu, 04 Apr 2013 15:28:00 GMT29837http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/are_we_setting_corn_up_for_failure/As I look at the average trade guess for corn ending stocks going into the April USDA supply/demand report I have to wonder if...Ted SeifriedTue, 09 Apr 2013 17:11:00 GMT29880http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/the_usda_draws_a_line_in_the_sand/There may be a window of opportunity here for corn, soybeans, and wheat...Ted SeifriedThu, 11 Apr 2013 15:12:00 GMT29898http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/china_vs_late_planting/May corn even posted a sweeping upside reversal after a sweeping downside reversal yesterday. So what does this all mean?Ted SeifriedTue, 16 Apr 2013 18:32:00 GMT29940http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/have_the_grains_traded_this_weather_yet/It seems that so far the market has not recognised the cold, wet weather as a threat. This could all change dramatically in the days to come...Ted SeifriedThu, 18 Apr 2013 15:04:00 GMT29954http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/the_year-long_weather_market/Is it early to be trading weather so closely?Ted SeifriedTue, 23 Apr 2013 15:28:00 GMT29992http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/the_start_of_a_rally_in_the_grains,_or_a_bounce_to_sell/Is this change in momentum signaling a change in the market, or just a temporary corrective bounce on the way to new lows?Ted SeifriedThu, 25 Apr 2013 15:24:00 GMT30009http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/is_lat_corn_planting_producing_a_golden_opportunity/It took a little longer to develop then I thought, but here is the late planting rally...Ted SeifriedTue, 30 Apr 2013 16:51:00 GMT30043http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/so_where_do_soybeans_stand_in_this_late_planting_mix/In the near term it is very difficult to predict soybean price action or even...Ted SeifriedThu, 02 May 2013 13:42:00 GMT30059http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/early_thoughts_on_fridays_usda_report__trade_guesses/The average trade estimates are as follows:Ted SeifriedTue, 07 May 2013 17:35:00 GMT30101http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/south_american_soybeans_headed_to_the_usa/Early this morning we were hearing rumors of 3 cargos of South American soybeans headed...Ted SeifriedThu, 09 May 2013 15:27:00 GMT30121http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/end_of_the_short_squeeze/But now that May contracts are off the board what should we expect now?Ted SeifriedTue, 14 May 2013 16:16:00 GMT30161http://www.agweb.com/blog/the_ted_spread/corn_falls_under_pressure_as_weather_agrees_with_planting/The consensus is that there will be an unprecedented jump in...Ted SeifriedThu, 16 May 2013 15:29:00 GMT30181