Aug 23, 2014
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Farmland Forecast

RSS By: Marc Schober, AgWeb.com

Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast an educational blog devoted to investments in agriculture and farmland.

WASDE: Rising Exports Decrease Corn Supplies

Feb 10, 2014

Grain stocks were reported lower in February due to a strong rise in exports for corn, soybeans, and wheat, according to the USDA. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2013 were lowered by 150 million bushels, more than analysts expected, due to the strong foreign demand. Soybean ending stocks were unchanged and the USDA continues to set the floor for stocks at 150 million bushels.                               

Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks were projected 150 million bushels lower due to increased exports. Lower corn prices have made U.S. corn more attractive to foreign buyers. The season-average farm price for corn was raised 10 cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.20 to $4.80 per bushel.

Global corn production was not changed due to lower reports in Argentina and Russia that were offset by increases reported in Ukraine. Coarse grain supplies were projected 2.1 million tons higher for 2013/14 due to higher beginning stocks and production. Global consumption was also raised 5 million tons with higher corn feeding for the European Union, Canada, South Korea, and Egypt.

U.S. Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2013/14

Grain

February 2014

Average Estimates

January 2014

Corn

1,481

1,606

1,631

Soybeans

150

143

150

Soybeans 

U.S. soybean supplies for 2013/14 were increased by 5 million bushels to 3.46 billion bushels due to higher projected imports. Soybean exports for 2013/14 were projected at 1.51 billion bushels, up 15 million from last month reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through January.

Projected ending stocks for 2013/14 soybeans were unchanged at 150 million bushels as increased exports were offset by a reduction in residual use and an increase in imports. The 2013/14 season-average price range was projected at $11.95 to $13.45, up 20 cents on both ends.

Global soybean production was raised 0.9 million tons to a record 287.7 million.  Soybean production for Brazil was increased 1 million from last month to a record 90 million tons due to higher yields reflecting higher early harvest results in the center-west.

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 were projected 50 million bushels lower due to higher expected food use and exports. Imports were raised 10 million bushels as railroad congestion and inclement weather slow Canadian wheat shipments to Pacific Coast terminals, encouraging additional shipments to the U.S. market.

Exports were projected 50 million bushels higher due to strong sales and shipments and reduced competition from Argentina. The season-average farm price for all wheat was narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the projected range to $6.65 to $6.95 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 were lowered 1.1 million tons with lower beginning stocks for Argentina and Russia and a 0.8-million-ton reduction in world production.

Outlook

Exports were the headline in today's WASDE report and will be the main focus throughout the 2014 season. Record setting production out of areas like the U.S. and South America have put pressure on prices, but it has been met with continued demand worldwide.

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