With the official start of summer just days away, the direction soybean prices are headed this year is uncertain because of unpredictable weather patterns and late planting, experts tell U.S. Farm Report’s Market Roundtable.
"Given the lowered exports and the demand destruction we’ve been seeing a little bit from these higher prices, I would think that we could see closer to a 350 million bushel to 400 million bushel carryout in the U.S.," says Dustin Johnson, broker, EHedger. "I think that’d be closer to $10 or even $9 beans if everything goes well on the planting side."
Meanwhile, Water Street Solutions CEO Darren Frye says he isn’t quite as bearish.
"I think it’s going to be hard to get a yield much over 43.5 (bu./acre), the way that we’ve started," Frye says. "And if field weather isn’t good in August, or into early September, something sub-42 is very possible. If that happens, you have an interesting bean market, maybe even challenging within a buck or two of last year’s high."
Other factors affecting the bean market include China, which has been canceling orders recently and could have a major effect on exports and prices if it pulls back by 3 million or 4 million metric tons, Frye says.
View the videos below to hear more from Johnson and Frye, including their take on the June 12 reports from USDA, the discovery of GMO wheat in Oregon and the way marketers are trading.
Watch Segment 1 of U.S. Farm Report’s Market Roundtable:
Watch Segment 2 of U.S. Farm Report’s Market Roundtable: