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AgDay Daily Recap -Aug 18, 2014

August 18, 2014
 
 

 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 18, 2014
 
OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - IT'S DAY ONE OF THE PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR. (I'M MICHELLE ROOK. IT'S A RACE TO MATURITY FOR THE MINNESOTA CROP. I'LL HAVE DETAILS WITH FARMERS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY ON AGDAY. PLUS, COULD THIS WINTER BRING ANOTHER PROPANE SHORTAGE..THE LATEST NUMBERS. PLUS HOW TO PREPARE IN AGRIBUSINESS…NOW THERE'S BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENT AND THE INVENTORIES ARE BUILDING BUT NOT ENOUGH AND THIS SHOWRING VETERAN IS NOT JUST COMPETING...SHE'S TAKING TIME TO TEACH THE NEXT GENERATION SUBTLETIES OF SUCCESS. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE ALL NEW CHEVY SILVERADO... THE 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR...
CROP TOUR:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. CROP SCOUTS ARE HITTING THE ROAD THIS MORNING - FANNING THROUGH-OUT THE CORNBELT - TO GET A FIRST-HAND ASSESSMENT OF THE 2014 CORN AND SOYBEAN CROPS. AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
MINI CROPS ROOK:
IN MINNESOTA, FARMERS ARE NOT NECESSARILY SEEING THOSE BIG CROPS THAT USDA IS PROJECTING. MANY SAY PROGRESS IS FALLING BEHIND DUE TO THE COOL SUMMER. AGDAY'S MICHELLE ROOK WAS AT FARMFEST IN REDWOOD COUNTY MINNESOTA AND TALKED TO FARMERS ABOUT HOW FAR THEIR CROPS ARE BEHIND AND HOW IT IMPACTS YIELD.
CROP TOUR COVERAGE:
WE'LL HAVE DAILY COVERAGE OF THE CROP TOUR HERE ON AGDAY. YOU CAN ALSO GET UP-TO-THE-MINUTE TWEETS FROM TOUR SCOUTS ON AGWEB.
PROPANE:
THANKS MIKE.THE U-S ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION SAYS PROPANE INVENTORIES ARE NOW THE HIGHEST THEY'VE BEEN SINCE 2012. INVENTORIES CLIMBING ABOVE 70 MILLION BARRELS... THAT'S 8-AND A HALF MILLION BARRELS HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO. LAST YEAR PRODUCERS STRUGGLED FOR PROPANE AFTER A WET HARVEST AND COLD WINTER DROVE DEMAND UP. THE INVENTORY INCREASE IS DUE TO LAST YEAR'S SHORTAGE AND HIGH PROPANE PRICES...BUT SHOULD BODE WELL FOR 2014.
DAVIS MICHAELSEN:
(AND IF WE'RE LOOKING AHEAD, TO BIG CROP AND POSSIBLY EVEN GROWERS PUTTING MORE CROPS INTO STORAGE BEFOR MARKETING..WE'RE GOING TO SEE INCREASED DEMAND FOR PROPANE. ITS GOOD TO SEE SUPPLIES POSITIONED IN KANSAS TO BE ABLE TO SERVICE THAT DEMAND. MICHAELSON SAYS ITS POSSIBLE PRICES COULD GO HIGHER AGAIN THIS YEAR. MANY OF THE SAME PROBLEMS EXHIST--TRANSPORTATION ISSUES AND A PIPELINE FROM CANADA THAT SUPPLIES THE NORTH PLAINS BEING REPURPOSED... HOWEVER, HAVING HIGHER SUPPLIES SHOULD HELP LIMIT PROPANE PRICE SPIKES.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, MORE TOUGH NEWS FOR FOLKS WORKING AT JOHN DEERE... PLUS, WE'LL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT PROPANE AND OTHER INPUTS TO GET FOLKS READY FOR THE HARVEST SEASON.
DEERE LAYOFFS:
CLINTON… IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY - JUST DAYS AFTER A DISAPPOINTING EARNINGS REPORT, DEERE AND COMPANY IS ANNOUNCING LAYOFFS. THE EQUIPMENT MAKER SAYS 600 WORKERS AT FOUR LOCATIONS ARE ON INDEFINITE LAYOFF. DEERE SAYS THE MOVE IS DUE TO CURRENT MARKET DEMAND WHICH IS FEELING THE AFFECTS OF LOWER GRAIN PRICES.IN ADDITION, DEERE IS IMPLEMENTING SEASONAL AND INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT SHUTDOWNS AND TEMPORARY LAYOFFS AT SEVERAL OF THE AFFECTED FACTORIES. THE LAYOFFS TAKE PLACE AT THEIR HARVESTER PLANT IN EAST MOLINE, ILLINOIS, A SEEDING PLANT IN MOLINE, ILLINOIS. A FACTORY IN ANKENY, IOWA AND ONE IN COFFEYVILLE KANSAS...
ANALYSIS INTRO:
CLINTON…AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER, IT APPEARS PROPANE SUPPLIES MAY BE IN BETTER SHAPE THAN LAST AS WE HEARD TOWARDS FALL. THAT'S A GOOD THING SINCE IT APPEARS LOTS OF FARMERS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE DRYING CORN THIS YEAR. SO, HAVE YOU LOCKED IN YOUR PROPANE PRICES? HERE'S AL PELL.
ANALYSIS:
WE'RE TALKING WITH BOB UTTERBACK OF UTTERBACK MARKETING HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK BOB LETS TALK ABOUT SOMETHING THAT'S BEEN ON MY MIND FOR A WHILE AND THAT IS IF WE HAVE A WET CORN HARVEST AND WE'RE GOING TO NEED A LOT OF PROPANE TO DRY THAT DOWN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HARVEST WE HAVE AND SOME GUYS AREN'T GOING TO HAVE ENOUGH STORAGE ROOM EITHER WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO. WELL THERE'S SEVERAL TOPICS YOU'VE BREAK IT DOWN FIRST OF ALL THE LP GAS WE KNOW LAST YEAR WE SOLD CONTRACTED IT OUT AND WE SOLD IT OUT OF THE COUNTRY. AND WE DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH. DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH NOW THERE'S BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENT AND THE INVENTORIES ARE BUILDING BUT NOT ENOUGH AND IT'S STILL GOING TO BE TIGHT SO OBVIOUSLY IF I COULD STOCKPILE SOME LP GAS I'D BE DOING IT. AND WE'RE HAVING A BIGGER CROP THIS YEAR. WE GOT A BIGGER CROP I THINK THE CROP MATURITY WE'RE GOING TO NEED ALL THE GROWING DEGREES POSSIBLE CAUSE THIS CROP HAS PROBABLY IF THERE ANY BULLISHNESS IN THIS MARKET IT'S THE GROWING DEGREE DAYS THE PROFARMER TOUR THIS NEXT WEEK I THINK IS GOING TO SAY THE CROPS THERE BUT IT'S LATE AND WE NEED AND SO THE MARKETS GOING TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE WEATHER VORTEX TALKING ABOUT SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER THAT'S GOING TO HAVE SOME ANXIETY CAUSE THAT COULD WHAT IT COULD DO WON'T REALLY AFFECT THE YIELD IT WILL AFFECT THE TEST WEIGHT AND DRYING AND THAT'S GOING TO CAUSE A REAL PROBLEM BUT SO THAT'S I THINK IT'S AN ISSUE THAT WILL KEEP THE MARKET FROM MAKING EXTREME LOWS BUT IT DRAGS OUT THINGS IT DRAGS OUT THE HARVEST BUT THE REAL ISSUE THAT I DON'T THINK FARMERS HAVE COME TO GRASP WITH IS PSYCHICALLY THE QUANTITY OF CORN THAT'S GOING TO BE DUMPED IN THE MARKET IS HUMONGOUS I WOULD ARGUE AND HERE AGAIN IT'S BASED ON ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE TALKING TO OTHER PRODUCERS AND OTHER ELEVATORS I THINK 30 TO 40% OF AVAILABLE SPACE OUT THERE IS ALREADY FILLED UP WITH INVENTORIES IT'S ALREADY BEEN SPOKEN FOR SO WHILE WE GOT A LOT OF BINS IT'S NOT ALL THOSE BINS ARE EMPTY YOU STILL GOT INVENTORY SO I QUESTION IF WE HAVE ENOUGH BIN SPACE SO I THINK CORNS GOING TO BE ON THE GROUND BY SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER AND THAT'S GOING TO AND THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IS STILL GOING TO BE A BOTTLE NECK OF OUR NORTH WEST AND SO WE HAVE A BASIS EXPOSURE PROBLEM THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IT'S NOT GOING TO TIGHTEN UP AS FAST AS EVERYBODY MENTALLY PREPARED FOR. BUT YOU NEED TO LOCK YOUR PROPANE IN. YOU MAY PROBABLY PROPANE AND FIND A HOME FOR YOUR CORN SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO SELL IT IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER. BOB UTTERBACK AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT…
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. NOW MIKE LAST WEEK ON TWITTER I SAW A PICTURE FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN SOMEONE HAD WRITTEN 'FROST' IN FROST. ALREADY GETTING COOL ON A CAR TOP. YEAH OCCASIONALLY WHEN YOU GET A CLEAR CALM NIGHT LIKE THAT YOU CAN GET A LIGHT FROST. HOPEFULLY THAT DIDN'T CAUSE ANY DAMAGE TO ANY OF THE CORPS AROUND THERE. WE DON'T REALLY SEE THAT HAPPENING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK THOUGH. THE CHILLIEST AIR WAS WITH THAT TROUGH THAT'S NOW MOVING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK. AND YOU CAN SEE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING IN OUT WEST FOR A CHANGE. WESTERN CALIFORNIA BUT THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE IT LOOKS LIKE. OVERALL OUR MODEL IS SHOWING THAT A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE CORN BELT. SPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS SO THIS COULD BE A PRETTY HOT PERIOD OF TIME COMING UP ALTHOUGH WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THAT AREA WE'RE PROBABLY NOT TALKING RECORD BREAKING HEAT OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT. BUT IT MIGHT BE A 3-4 DAY PERIOD THE WAY IT LOOKS FOR SOME DECENT HEAT. BUT THIS TROUGH MORE THAN WILL LIKELY DIG RIGHT INTO THE RIDGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AND KEEP THIS FROM BEING A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT. SO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE IN MOST OF THE CORN BELT THE WAY IT LOOKS ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA. NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS. NOW BELOW NORMAL IS EXPECTED WITH THAT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVEN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES. ESPECIALLY IN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA CALIFORNIA NEVADA AND THE FAR WEST COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK THEN WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEM KIND OF MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST KIND OF IN THIS AREA, WE'RE GOING TO GO FROM MONTANA THE DAKOTAS THE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BELOW NORMAL THOUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND FROM THE FOUR CORNER REGION WESTWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AND THIS IS WHAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT AS FAR AS WE HEAD TOWARD SEPTEMBER THE BELOW NORMAL AREA WOULD SHIFT TO THE WAST. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OBVIOUSLY THAT SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL OF FROST EVENTUALLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS… ABOVE NORMAL THEN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE EAST COAST. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO TEXAS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR BEND OREGON PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY... HIGH TEMPERATURE UP TO 85 DEGREES... ENID OKLAHOMA HAZY SUNSHINE HOT AND HUMID THE HIGH UP TO 98... AND UTICA NEW YORK INCREASING CLOUDS BUT COMFORTABLE HIGH AROUND 73,
MACH PETE:
CLINTON…OUR GOOD FRIEND MACHINERY PETE IS HERE FOR HIS MONDAY MORNING VISIT...
TODAY HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE PRICING SPLIT HE'S SEEING BETWEEN OLD AND NEW EQUIPMENT ON THE AUCTION BLOCK.
MACHINERY PETE:
THANKS, GREG. YOU CAN STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST DEALS BY FOLLOWING PETE ON TWITTER OR LIKING HIM ON FACEBOOK. IN ADDITION TO HIS WEEKLY SEGMENT ON AGDAY, HE'S ALSO FEATURED EVERY WEEK ON AGRITALK AND AGWEB DOT COM.
TEASE:
CLINTON… STILL TO COME A NEW GROUND BEEF TESTING SYSTEM SHOULD HELP USDA INCREASE HOW FAST IT RESPONDS TO FOODBORNE ILLNESSES. DETAILS IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMIY...
ITC 4H MENTOR:
CLINTON… A TOP BREEDER IN INDIANA IS FOCUSING ON MORE THAN JUST HER BUSINESS.
SHE'S HELPING YOUNG 4H'ERS-- EAGER TO LEARN, BUILD THE SKILLS THEY NEED IN THE SHOW RING.
AGDAY'S BETSY JIBBEN TAKES US TO THE INDIANA STATE FAIR FOR OPEN CLASS SHOWING.
ITC TAG:
CLINTON… ...FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY IS NEXT.
GROUND BEEF TASTING:
IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY - THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE IS STARTING A NEW PROCEDURE TO REMOVE UNSAFE AND CONTAINAMATED GROUND BEEF FROM GROCERY STORES AND SUPPLIERS FASTER.
CLOSE:
CLINTON…IN FOOD AND YOUR FAMILY - THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE IS STARTING A NEW PROCEDURE TO REMOVE UNSAFE AND CONTAINAMATED GROUND BEEF FROM GROCERY STORES AND SUPPLIERS FASTER.
RFD PROMO:
CLINTON… MONDAY ON AGDAY, IT'S THE START OF THE 2014 PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR. WE'LL PREVIEW THE TREK WITH WHAT FARMERS ARE SAYING IN MINNESOTA. PLUS A SHOWRING VETERAN IS TEACHING THE NEXT GENERATION HOW TO SUCCEED.
JOIN ME 8 EASTERN ON RFD.
STATION PROMO:
CLINTON…TUESDAY ON AGDAY, THE RESULTS OF DAY ONE ON THE PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR. HOW IS THE CROP STACKING UP ACROSS THE CORN BELT. WE'LL HAVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE. PLUS, THE LATEST CROP CONDITIONS FROM USDA.
IM CLINTON GRIFFITHS JOIN ME FOR AGDAY.
 

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