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Pro Farmer 2011 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

August 26, 2011
 
 

Pro Farmer pegs 2011 U.S. corn crop at 12.484 billion bushels; average yield 147.9 bu. per acre
+/- 1% = 146.45 bu. to 149.4 bu. per acre; 12.36 billion to 12.61 billion bushels.

Pro Farmer pegs 2011 U.S. soybean crop at 3.083 billion bushels; average yield of 41.8 bu. per acre
+/- 2% = 40.96 bu. to 42.64 bu. per acre; 3.02 billion to 3.14 billion bushels.

NOTE: Pro Farmer editors believe USDA will eventually lower harvested acres for both corn and soybeans, but USDA’s Aug. 1 harvested acreages were used in making these estimates. The slight uptick in the bean yield estimate from USDA’s Aug. 1 yield is the result of one of the most disease-free bean crops we’ve ever seen on the Tour.

CORN
Ohio: 160 bu. per acre. The corn crop in Ohio is variable and immature, with many Tour samples still in the milk stage. The immaturity of the Ohio corn crop means it has greater potential to add bushels with late-season rains and an extended growing season.

Indiana: 146.7 bu. per acre. Corn in the Hoosier State shows the impact of stressful conditions throughout the growing season. After a severely delayed start, conditions turned hot and dry. Early denting and poor plant health are clear signs this crop has been pushed too hard. Test weights will be light.

Illinois: 154.8 bu. per acre. Parts of the state show promise, but there’s too much stress and poor plant health to produce a "typical" Illinois crop. The challenge will be to preserve yield potential and get it to the bin.

Iowa: 164 bu. per acre. Southwest Iowa is a disaster. Crop Districts 1 and 4 will be better than last year, but not good enough to make up for bushels lost in the southwest corner. Eastern and central Iowa have solid yield potential, but the Tour failed to find many big yields.

Minnesota: 169 bu. per acre. It’s too dry in Minnesota. The stress has been around too long and the corn crop is looking at a 2010-like finish. The crop had great potential but missed too many rains after pollination.

Nebraska: 165 bu. per acre. Good ear length and solid weight don’t make up for missing ears. That was the problem in Nebraska, with ear counts down 2% from year ago.

South Dakota: 140.5 bu. per acre. This crop looks really similar to last year’s.

SOYBEANS
Ohio: 45 bu. per acre. Pod counts are up from a year ago, but they are flat. The crop needs time and water to finish strong, but has potential for solid yields.

Indiana: 44 bu. per acre. Disease and bug pressure were limited. That suggests the Indiana bean crop could add bushels if there are timely late-season rains.

Illinois: 49 bu. per acre. Rains rolled through parts of Illinois during the Tour. The northern half of the crop has plenty of moisture to finish with a good yield.

Iowa: 53 bu. per acre. Last year’s SDS was replaced with fields of green beans and plenty of plant health. Give this Iowa crop one more rain, and we’ll see a record yield for the state in 2011.

Minnesota: 39 bu. per acre. Good plant health cannot overcome soils that are just too dry. This crop has been under stress since pod-set. A rain now probably wouldn’t recover 100% of lost yield potential.

Nebraska: 52.5 bu. per acre. Disease-free soybeans with no bugs in Nebraska and a crop that can be irrigated at just the right time makes it really hard to be pessimistic about the Husker bean crop. Nebraska’s beans aren’t without problems, but there are far fewer problems than excellent beans.

South Dakota: 39 bu. per acre. We think USDA got too pessimistic with its Aug. 1 estimate of the South Dakota bean crop. It does need one more rain to finish well. Across the Corn Belt, a lack of disease means the bean crop has a chance at a really good finish.

 


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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, Soybeans

 
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COMMENTS (6 Comments)

jaysont - IA
extreme variability, here in NE Iowa we are looking at likely near record bean yields with corn not too far behind. nearly ideal early spring weather gave us good root systems so when it turned slightly dry we had good root mass in the soil profile. had 3 inch rains last week that topped off our late plants. beans are tall but too viney, short beans have saurprising potential but tall beans tend to dissapoint. wont be any general crop insurance collected around here though this year.
3:57 PM Sep 6th
 
jaysont - IA
extreme variability, here in NE Iowa we are looking at likely near record bean yields with corn not too far behind. nearly ideal early spring weather gave us good root systems so when it turned slightly dry we had good root mass in the soil profile. had 3 inch rains last week that topped off our late plants. beans are tall but too viney, short beans have saurprising potential but tall beans tend to dissapoint. wont be any general crop insurance collected around here though this year.
3:57 PM Sep 6th
 
WhyMeJake
There may well be fields with 175 bu/a, but you must figure in the unplanted fields as well. And the fields that are under water, hailed out or are now short of water and are drying up. Hang on, $9 corn and $16 beans are in the near future.

Does it ever seem as though some people are trying to keep the lid on the prices? There are major problems in large areas of Minnesota and the surrounding area. I think we will see some record prices in the very near future. Hang on, this ride is just starting.​
3:41 PM Aug 28th
 
kaska - IA
I notice you made no mention of SE Iowa in your report. In our area, we have had less than 3/4 of an inch of rain since June 28. Some beans have not seen rain since they were planted. Corn has minimal pollination. This is the worst crop we've seen since the drought of the '80s. I can't think we'll be anywhere CLOSE to the yield estimate you have given.
12:35 PM Aug 27th
 
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, IN
The Pro Farmer 2011 corn crop estimates show Minnesota with a 169 yield, however, the actual 2011 crop results show Minnesota with a 175.93 yield! I believe the 169 yield is incorrect.
9:25 PM Aug 26th
 
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, IN
The Pro Farmer 2011 corn crop estimates show Minnesota with a 169 yield, however, the actual 2011 crop results show Minnesota with a 175.93 yield! I believe the 169 yield is incorrect.
9:25 PM Aug 26th
 



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