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Soybean Production Down; Lower Exports

August 11, 2011

U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month.  Soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed production are all projected lower.  Soybean supplies for 2011/12 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks.  

Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields.  Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota.  The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bushels per acre is 2.0 bushels below last month=s trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last year's yield.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush.  Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall.  Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use. 
 
U.S. changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks.  
Crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent weeks.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month. 
 
Soybean and product prices for 2011/12 are all higher this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50 to $14.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5 to 58.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.    
 
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 451.4 million tons, down 4.1 million tons from last month mostly due to a reduction in the U.S. soybean crop.  Reductions for soybeans, rapeseed, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed and peanut production.  Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, China, and Ukraine.  China’s production is projected at 14 million tons, down 0.3 million due to reduced harvested area.  Brazil's soybean production is projected at 73.5 million tons, up 1 million due to higher expected yield.  Production for Brazil’s 2010/11 crop is also raised this month to a record 75.5 million tons based on record yields.  Rapeseed production is reduced for Ukraine and Belarus reflecting lower yield prospects for both countries.  Other changes include higher sunflowerseed production for EU-27, higher rapeseed production for Australia, higher peanut production for China, and lower cottonseed production for Brazil. 
 
SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is increased 68,000 short tons, raw value, from last month due to higher beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production and imports.  
 
Production is lowered 80,000 tons, mainly due to lower-than-expected forecast yields for U.S. sugarbeets and Louisiana sugarcane.  Imports are decreased 110,000 tons as lower imports from Mexico more than offset increased tariff rate quota imports.  Total 2011/12 U.S. sugar use is unchanged.  For 2010/11, ending stocks are increased 258,000 tons, mainly due to higher imports from Mexico which reflect corrected import data for June and a stronger-than-expected pace for the rest of the fiscal year. 
 
For Mexico, reduced 2011/12 supplies lead to a reduction in exports of 205,000 metric tons, raw value, as domestic use and ending stocks are unchanged.  Beginning stocks, decreased 285,000 tons to reflect changes made to prior year estimates, are partially offset by 80,000 tons of quota imports shifted from 2010/11 to 2011/12.
 
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