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Special Report: Supply Side Now Locked In

October 11, 2012
By: Sara Schafer, Farm Journal Media Business and Crops Editor
Corn Pile
  

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, dissects the information and news from today’s reports.

Half the battle is over in trying to balance the 2012 supply and demand levels in corn and soybeans. "We have locked in the supply side, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.

Today USDA released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

 

Here are the highlights:
Corn:

  • Total production: 10.706 billion bu., compares to 12.358 billion bu. in 2011
  • National average yield: 122 bu. per acre, down 0.8 bu. from the September Crop Production Report


Soybeans:

  • Total production: 2.86 billion bu., compares to 3.056 billion bu. in 2011
  • National average yield: 37.8 bu. per acre, up a notable 2.5 bu. per acre from the September Crop Production Report

 

Gulke provides audio analysis of the reports:

 

Gullke says for corn, the crop wasn’t as big as we thought. In soybeans, yields we increased and a strong demand was waiting. "This shows the soybean market will stay stable."

For corn, this is the lowest average yield seen since 1995. Gulke says that this should raise some agronomic questions for farmers.

In his field, he saw yields vary from 80 to 180 bu. per acre. He says that yield variation can make net profit range by several $100s.

"I think what it tells me is that we need to do a lot better job on site-specific fertilizer. It wasn’t heat, but the lack of water that really hurt me. We were 1 to 2 inches away from this yield being 128 or 132.

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See all of the data, coverage and analysis of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

 


 

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COMMENTS (1 Comments)

Tim Gieseke - MN
In April and May of 2012 I put on a couple of thousand miles traveling for work in the Upper Midwest states. Most of the land was tilled black - probably since fall of 2011. In your quote, "We were 1 to 2 inches away from this yield being 128 or 132". I take it means 1 to 2 inches of moisture, not necessarily rain. Most farmers gave up at least that much in tillage and subsequent run-off. In SC MN where I farm we recieved 12 inches of rain in May - I saw a lot of that run off from fields that were tilled way too much. We have the equipment, herb/pesticides, technology of the 21st century and 19th or 20th century soil management mentality.
Here we are again, as dry as it was in fall 2011, and out we go again. I think it is a Texan saying, "Don't pray for rain, unless you know how to hang on to it."
4:10 PM Oct 11th
 



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