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MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

India Feeding 1.18 Billion

Apr 30, 2010
                 India is only second to China when it comes to feeding a populace which at last count measures 1.18 billion vs China’s 1.3 billion. India continues to consume calories such as rice and wheat and not soybeans and corn.
According to the graph India has the largest end stocks to consumption in the rice and wheat sector.
World Weather Inc suggest west and northwest India is likely to experience above to much above monsoons in the June to October timeframe if they transition from an El Nino to La Nina as forecast.
What crop(s) are most at risk are a wheat harvest which last through the month of May, corn planting which spans from May to July and 80% of the soybean planting which has the same planting time frame as corn.
India has 17% end stocks to rice consumption but the largest production is far away in the east. This percentage compares to 30% for China and 24% for the US. India’s end stocks to wheat consumption is 23%, although on the rise, remains below China’s 58% and the US staggering 81%.
India’s end stocks to corn consumption at 4.5% pales in comparison to China’s 31% and the US at 17%, but if India’s milling quality wheat becomes feed wheat with too much rain at harvest, it is likely to compete against corn.
Soybeans could be a major problem as 80% of India’s annual production is in the same region as where the above to much above normal forecast resides and though soybean end stocks to annual consumption has increased 4.34 times year earlier levels, annual consumption can chew through its end stocks rather quickly.
Be reminded India with its 1.18 billion population is the 4th leading world consumer of soybean oil, 3rd for rapeseed oil and 1st with regards to palm oil.
Allendale Inc suggest you need to keep an eye on weather within India as wheat harvest, corn and soybean plantings takes place.
One question you may need to consider as we work into 2010 and beyond, will India have the water necessary to not only plant a healthy rice crop but potable water for human consumption? Are the water wars escalating?
 
We welcome your questions and comments.........Joe Victor
 
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The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2010
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