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MGEX Research

RSS By: Joe Victor, AgWeb.com

Joe Victor is a Business Development Specialist with Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Inc., where he monitors cash grain activity and cash grain opportunities. He provides marketing advice through this blog.

What Impact Did Bird Flu Have on Corn Prices?

Apr 27, 2009
What Impact Did H5N1 Bird Flu Have on Corn Prices?
  
 
Allendale Inc has researched the Time Line of H5N1 Bird flu impact on corn futures from month previous to major event to month following. To view chart click here
 
1997 Dec, after 6 reported deaths in Hong Kong- it destroys entire poultry flock
Corn futures price
Nov 271 Dec 265 Jan (1998) 273, result of a 2 cent increase
 
2003 Feb, H5N1 reappears in Hong Kong, with a reported death
Jan 238 Feb 232 Mar 236, result of a 2 cent decline
 
2004 Jan, 1st reported death Vietnam from H5N1
Dec 246 (2003) Jan 276 Feb 296, result of a 50 cent increase
 
2005 May, rumors of H5N1 deaths within China
Apr 205 May 222 June 212, result of a 7 cent increase
 
2006 April, 11 H5N1 deaths within China
Mar 236   April 238 May 251, result of a 15 cent increase
 
2007 March, No New H5N1 cases reported in Vietnam
Feb 425   Mar 374    April 358, result of 67 cent decline in futures
 
Conclusion: it appears as though major events of bird flu, had a positive impact on corn futures prices. It must be noted, initial World Health Organization projections were for 2-7 million people to die from H5N1 bird flu.
As of April 2009, total H5N1 bird flu deaths are 257….Joe Victor    800 551 4626
 
The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Commodity trading may not be suitable for recipients of this publication. This is not a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any commodities. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Any republication, or other use of this information and thoughts expressed herein without the written permission of Allendale, Inc., is strictly prohibited. Allendale Inc. c2009
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