Oct 2, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.


Markets Await USDA Report

Dec 10, 2013

 Grains gave up some of Monday’s gains as traders await new supply and demand data from USDA to be released at 11 am CST later today. Wheat was the leader to the downside giving up 4 cents while corn was off 2 cents a bushel.  Front-month January beans were holding on to a 2-cent gain towards the end of overnight trading.

Traders look for demand-side data on US crops to show improvement, especially with soybeans as 1.4 MB of booked sales have been made already as compared to USDA’s annual forecast of 1.45 MB.  Even corn and wheat have seen hefty export business of late, which is garnering support for lower ending stocks estimates.

2013/14 US Ending Stocks (in Million Bushels)


Dec Expected


Nov Actual













In overnight news, Brazil’s crop reporting service Confab raised their soybean production estimate to 90.03 MMT versus their November range estimate of 87.9 to 90.2 MMT.  The agency also pegged corn crop at 78.8 MMT, in line with the 78.5 to 79.8 MMT forecast last month.   The current wheat crop forecast was raised 11% to 5.36 MMT, up from 4.81 MMT in November, due to favorable weather in top producing state Rio Grande do Sul.  

Cash grain markets in the US continue to be relatively quiet with slow farmer sales and declining barge rates help give modest support to interior basis levels. In corn, basis levels continue to trade at elevated levels with basis levels in Iowa still mostly positive for key buyers. But, carry into 2014 seems slim as price spreads narrow offering farmers few incentives to store.

 chart 2013 12 10

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