Apr 19, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Markets Shakeoff China Rejections

Dec 04, 2013

While the markets have been relatively strong in recent days, the news has been mostly negative. South American weather continues to be benign at the start of the growing season helping bolster thoughts of a record-large bean crop there. Abiove, a Brazilian oilseed group, projected a record 86.6 MMT of soybeans will be produced in Brazil this season, up from its previous forecast from 86 MMT. They also look for exports to come in at 44 MMT, outperforming US exports of 39.5 MMT expected this year.

In corn, China announced it has rejected 120,642 MT of U.S. corn after detecting a genetically-modified strain that has not been approved by Beijing. That is in addition to 60,000 MT blocked last month. On the domestic front, ethanol margins continue to be favorable which combined with slow farmer sales is managing to keep basis levels at high historical values. Even with a record-large crop much of the Midwest still sees positive basis values for corn, and spot basis values are running about 10 to 20 cents above historical norms for this time of year.  

For wheat, international wheat prices continue to head higher with Paris wheat futures hitting a 6-month high overnight. Egypt bought 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat on Tuesday for shipment between Dec. 20 and Dec. 31. The wheat was purchased at $304.89 per MMT. GASC has bought only EU and Black Sea region wheat since returning to the international market in July following a 4-1/2 month absence. In the US Plains, temperatures are expected to drop below zero (Fahrenheit) Friday and Saturday, and the wheat crop in northwest Kansas and west-central Nebraska could be harmed by the bitter cold.

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