Aug 22, 2014
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Cash Grain Insights

RSS By: Kevin McNew, AgWeb.com

Kevin McNew is President of Grain Hedge and Geograin. McNew was raised on a farm in central Oklahoma and received his bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University, and master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. For over a decade, he was a Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Montana State University, focusing on commodity markets. He has received numerous academic awards for his research and outreach work, and was (and still is) widely regarded for boiling down complex economic issues into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

 

Planting Delays Spur Market Recovery

Apr 30, 2013

Grains found mild support overnight after a limit move in the corn market on Monday pushed prices to their highest level since the March 28 Stocks report. Corn was up 2 cents a bushel, while soybean prices were up 5 cents a bushel. Wheat prices came under pressure, losing 6 cents.

In corn, USDA planting progress report showed only 5% complete, just 1% higher from a week ago.  This matches the slowest since 1984, when farmers also had completed just 5% of their corn planting and in that year acreage fell 2% from the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report. However, growing season weather is still the biggest driver for final yield but for the near-term traders will likely react with a bullish bias to the planting delays occurring. Looking at the weather, heavy rainfall and snow are expected this week across the western U.S. Midwest and eastern Plains. There is a big storm system starting Tuesday which will spread in intensity and coverage by Thursday and linger into the weekend. As a result, planting should continue to be stalled which should remain supportive for the corn market.

gh planting pace

gh planting pace

For wheat, the Wheat Quality tour kicks off today in Kansas and continues through Thursday. Kansas State agronomist Jim Shroyer said to the tour participants that Central Kansas looks pretty good thanks to spring precipitation but he expects to  see freeze damage in some south-central areas around Great Bend, KS, including Pratt, Barton and Rice counties. He noted that in western Kansas, west of Jetmore and Quinter, KS, the wheat goes downhill in a hurry and speculated that some fields will not be harvested. Shroyer said that area of Kansas reminds him of 1989, when the state’s winter wheat struggled after the big U.S. drought of 1988. Internationally, South Korea purchased 48,900 MT of U.S.-origin milling wheat.

stop paying so much to trade

For soybeans, export business continues to remain quiet while domestic crushing plants bid up basis levels to draw out beans from farmers. A key processor in Decatur was up 10 cents on basis on Monday.

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