Oct 1, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Bean Bulls Pause as Market Digests News....

Apr 11, 2014

Soybean market remains in a major state of confusion.  The logical fundamentalist will argue logistics in Brazil are much better than last year and they have a much bigger supply to export as domestic pipelines are more plentiful.  The Argentine basis is falling apart with very little bid.  China is canceling cargoes right and left. Imports here in the US are being aggressively pursued. Yes, US domestic supplies are tight right now, but is that going to be the story the market trades as we move forward??? From my perspective I am thinking the trade is getting closer and closer to flipping the page and forever closing this chapter of the book, but then again I have been saying this for the past $1.00. My hunch is the next chapter starts out with US producer planting a massive NEW record number of soybean acres and the world #1 buyer, China, is backpedaling on purchases.  I am not saying Chinese crush margins will stay in the RED forever, but I am saying it's going to take a bit of time for the Chinese to chew through this recent glut of supply.  Maybe after 90-days the situation changes, but as of right now I am just having a hard time figuring out why and what China is going to do with more soybean imports.  I remain extremely nervous about new-crop soybean sales.  I have 60% sold/hedged and would feel much more comfortable getting myself to 70-75% sold/hedged.  Unfortunately, the weather and planting uncertainties are causing me to pause a bit. And I generally don't like getting to 75% sold until I have a better idea about the crop itself.  With that said I just hope I am not kicking myself later down the road! For now I will remain nervously patient... CLICK HERE for my daily report....

Chinese Soy Problems Continue: Several sources as of late have been reporting that Chinese soybean importers are struggling to get "lines-of-credit." In the wake of the news fear of more Chinese "cancelations" linger. Bottom-line, crushing beans in China means a loss of between -$75 and -$100 per ton these days. Meaning it's tough importers to seek them to the crushers. In return its tougher and tougher fork the importers to make money, hence fewer loans and lines-of-credit are being offered. 

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