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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Preview of the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports

Mar 22, 2013

 Crop production and supply estimates are starting to be released by several sources ahead of next weeks highly anticipated USDA "Quarterly Stocks Report." Below are the highlights along with my guesses regarding the upcoming USDA report:

US March Prospective Plant

 
My Guess
February
2012 Final
Corn
97.5
96.5
97.155
Soybeans
78.2
77.5
77.198
All Wheat
56.2
56.0
55.736

 

US March 1 Inventories


 
My Guess
March 1, 2012
Dec. 1, 2012
Corn
5.050
6.023
8.030
Soybeans
1.0
1.374
1.966
Wheat
1.17
1.199
1.660
 


Farm Futures Magazine is projecting record US soybean acreage and the most corn acres planted since 1936. 
  • U.S. soybean acreage is seen at 79.09 million acres, up 2.5% on the year with as much as a 10% increase in parts of the Western Cornbelt.
  • Corn acreage is estimated at 97.43 million acres, slightly more than 2012 with year to year increases in the Eastern Cornbelt and Southern US.
  • All winter wheat acreage is estimated at 42.15 million acres, up 2% from last year. Soft red at 9.51 million acres, a 17.2% rise; Hard red at 29.1 million, a 2.5% decline; White winter at 3.54 million acres, 5.8% more than in 2012. 
  • All spring wheat is estimated at 11.91 million, down 3.1%; Durum at 2.06 million acres, 2.8% below last year. 
  • All wheat acreage is projected at 56.12 million acres, a 0.7% year to year increase.
  • The numbers above are dependent on spring weather and 18% of the farmers surveyed said they could shift 50% or more of their acres.
International Grains Council (ICG) updating global forecasts. 
  • World corn production to climb by 9% in the 2013-14 crop year, with the US harvest projected to rise as much as 30% . 
  • Global corn stocks may increase by 19% from a 16-year low, as output rises faster than consumption.
  • Argentina’s corn estimate cut by 1 million tons to 26 million, USDA currently at 26.5 million. On the flip side they raised production estimates for Turkey, Thailand and India. 
  • US exports were cut by 1.5 million tons (now 22 million), while they raised Brazil’s export shipments by 1.0 million tons (now 27 million). 
  • World wheat production will rise by 4% to 682 million. This is similar to there previous forecast. Basically production is forecast to be 29 million tons more than last year. But still less than the record crop in 11/12 of 697 million tons. 
  • Global wheat use should increase and leave "little room" to rebuild stocks, with inventories forecast to climb by just 3-5 million metric tons in 2013-14.
  • World wheat carryover stocks are seen at 177 million tons at the end of 2012-13, compared with a February outlook for inventories of 176 million tons.
  • World Soybean production in 2012-13 will be just 266 million tons, 3 million tons less than forecast in February.
  • Global rice harvest may move higher to 468 million tons, compared with last month’s prediction of 466 million tons. 

 

 

For the rest of the story including more insight into what traders believe are influencing market prices currently, sign-up here to receive a RISK-FREE 30-Day trial of my daily Grain and Livestock commentary. So many advisors want to tell you exactly how to market your crop, I want to teach you to better understand the markets and how you should respond.  If you are looking to be educated and not just told what to do, simply click here and get started!

Van Trump Report


 

 

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