Aug 28, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

What Bullish Cards are Left for Corn?

Apr 15, 2014

Corn traders continue to talk about US weather; the planting pace of US corn; how many corn acres US producers we will ultimately end up planting; and overall demand.   Below are a few thoughts on each and why I believe producers need to be locking in sales or building floors to protect downside exposure: 

 

  • US Weather - There is obviously lots of talk and uncertainties regard US weather. But as I have said many times, nobody can outguess "Mother Nature." This will be an ongoing debate for several more weeks and will include careful analysis of June precipitation, overall July pollination temperatures and ultimately harvest conditions. I currently believe one can easily argue both sides of the fence. Just keep in mind as each week passes the bullish card....  CLICK HERE for my daily report.... 
  • Current Planting Pace - Just remember as with any race...it's not necessarily how you start but rather how you finish. Should I remind everyone that last year during just a 1-week time period 40% plus of the US corn crop was planted. 
  • Total Corn Acres - I know this will not be of popular opinion, but I am still thinking the USDA's current corn planted acreage estimate might be 2-3 million acres too LOW.  The recent rally in price is certainly not discouraging new-crop corn acres. I just believe the USDA currently has "total crop acreage" estimated too low and we will need to make some adjustments higher as we move forward.    CLICK HERE for my daily report......  
  • Demand - The bullish demand cards might be close to being eliminated form the deck.  As we started the marketing year the bullish card count was fairly high considering we had no where to go but up.  Now that everything has played itself out I am starting to worry the deck has run out of "aces."  There is more talk from bears that bushels used for ethanol production could be close to 100 million too high. Rather than 5.0 billion bushels in corn usage perhaps it should be more like 4.90 billion bushels.  There is also heavy debate starting to rage again about the feed usage numbers and if US exports will in fact be able to reach the USDA's rather lofty goals. Understand, I am NOT bearish demand, I am just thinking we may have already turned over all of the bullish cards for this marketing year.                          CLICK HERE for my daily report....
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