Aug 28, 2014
Home| Tools| Blogs| Discussions| Sign UpLogin


November 2011 Archive for EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

Tuesday's Grain Market Recap 11-29-2011

Nov 29, 2011

Grains finished stronger with December corn up 6 ¼ cents, January soybeans up 4 cents, and December wheat up 19 ¾ cents. Though we finished stronger, soybeans and corn came well off their day session highs before settlement.

Supportive outsides contributed to the strength today, but otherwise it was a Tuesday without much fresh fundamental news.  Yesterday’s Commitment of Trader’s data showed massive liquidation of corn and increases to short positions in wheat/beans by the "managed money".  Wire reports this morning show Japan has already increased their imports of feed wheat substantially and are expected to continue through March (bearish corn).  Even though the outsides were supportive today we still haven’t resolved the issues that are plaguing Europe right now (bearish dollar denominated assets such as commodities).

Even though we are coming off of oversold levels we remain with our bearish stance for grains.  We still feel corn/wheat are overpriced and until the world burns through its supply of wheat, corn will have a hard time sustaining any rallies.  Soybeans are well oversold and off of their moving averages by quite a bit.  Unless there are any weather problems in South America it may be hard for soybeans to sustain any rallies as well.  First notice day for December futures is tomorrow, Wednesday November 30th for the following: December Corn, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Oats, Treasuries, and Metals.

Please call EHedger if you would like to discuss developing a marketing strategy for 2012. Our grain marketing software can help you discover your risk based on your current strategy and help you make marketing decisions going forward.  Have a great week!

Chart: December Corn

Chart: January Soybeans

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

Monday's Grain Market Recap 11-28-11

Nov 28, 2011

Corn, soybeans, and wheat all finished stronger. Beans lead the way finishing 14 ½ cents higher at $11.21 (January). Corn finished 9 ¼ cents higher at $5.91 ¾ (December) and wheat ¼ cent higher at $5.74 ¾ (December).

Outside markets were once again affecting grains this time giving them some support.  With the Dow Jones futures up over 300 points and the US Dollar down over 750 the markets were easily supported.  Export inspections were in-line with expectations and weren’t a major market mover.  Grains were just a little overcooked to the downside and have come off of oversold levels.

The Commitment of Traders report was delayed until today due to the holiday last week.  The results show the Managed Money reducing their net long corn position by 48,543 contracts!  They increased their net short wheat position by 13,730 contracts, and went from net long to net short in the soybeans on a 18,756 position swing. So obviously from Tuesday November 15th until Tuesday November 22nd there was a big negative net change for the Managed Money using futures/options.  In that same Tuesday-Tuesday timeframe we dropped 46 ½ cents in December corn,  47 ¼ cents in January soybeans, and 38 ¾ cents in December wheat.

The other report that was out today was the Weekly Crop Progress.  This showed a gain in the Winter Wheat crop condition from 50% to 52% in the good-excellent category.

Even though we are coming off of oversold levels we remain with our bearish stance for grains.  We still feel corn/wheat are overpriced and until the world burns through its supply of wheat corn is going to have a hard time sustaining any rallies.  Soybeans are well oversold and off of their moving averages by quite a bit.  Unless there are any weather problems in South America it may be hard for soybeans to sustain any rallies as well.  First notice day for December futures is on Wednesday November 30th for the following: December Corn, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Oats, Treasuries, and Metals.

Please call EHedger if you would like to discuss developing a marketing strategy for 2012. Our grain marketing software can help you discover your risk based on your current strategy and help you make marketing decisions going forward.  Have a great week!

Chart: December Corn

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

Monday's Grain Market Recap 11-21-11

Nov 21, 2011

Grains continued their selloff from last week with a gap open lower.  December corn finished 12 ½ cents lower at $5.97 ¾, January soybeans 20 ¼ cents lower at $11.48, and December wheat 6 ¾ lower at $5.91 ½.

Outside markets helped push grains lower with the Dow Jones futures falling over 300 ticks at one point in the day.  Crude oil was trading over $2 lower during the weakest part of the trading session while the dollar was stronger for much of the day. The outside market weakness was stemming from the failure of the Super Committee to produce a budget plan that they could agree upon, their deadline is midnight tonight.  This is the 4th trading day in a row that December corn has finished lower.  The near-term downside target for December corn is at the lows we found on July 1st and October 3rd in that lower to mid $5.70’s (see chart).  Of course if it does get to those levels, this doesn’t mean it has to stop there, this is just where we found support in the past when production was still quite unknown.  Of course production is expected to be well off of trendline levels, but we are still seeing demand rationing at these levels.  Over the weekend Egypt contracted more Ukrainian and Russian wheat (240,000 MTs). Chinese corn imports are down 36.5% year to date.  Every week we seem to be hearing more and more stories about Asian countries contracting feed grade wheat in place of corn.  Until demand picks up we can see the price of corn and wheat continue to slip here in the US.  Soybeans have not had great demand either, but if there were to be any weather problems in South America this winter we could see this market remain better supported than corn in that timeframe.

Fundamentally we still stand bearish especially in the wheat and corn markets. Technically these markets are also looking to point lower.  Please call EHedger if you would like to discuss developing a marketing strategy for 2012. Our grain marketing software can help you discover your risk based on your current strategy and help you make marketing decisions going forward. Have a great week!

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-18-2011

Nov 18, 2011

Grains finished mixed after trading sharply lower early in the session.  December corn settled 4 ¼ cents lower at $6.10 ¼, January soybeans finished unchanged at $11.68 ¼, and December wheat finished up 5 ¾ cents at $5.98 ¼.

Despite the early weakness we did find strength going into the end of the day taking us higher in beans/wheat.  This morning the USDA announced a bean sale to China for 124,500 MTs.  Other than that there was not a whole lot of new fundamental news out in today’s trading session.  After the close however we did get the Cattle on Feed numbers as well as the Commitment of Traders data.  The Commitment of Traders report shows the Managed Money increasing their net short on Chicago wheat by 10,695 contracts, reducing their net long in corn by 21,370 contracts, and reducing their net long in soybeans by 18,140 contracts (all numbers discussed are using combined futures and options).  For soybeans Managed Money is only holding a net long position of 10,133 contracts, which is a significant reduction!

Cattle on Feed:

                                              Estimated                            Actual

On Feed November 1st                104%                                     104%

Placements During Oct                  99%                                       99%

Marketings in Oct                        101%                                     103%

The feed wheat story is still a very important key to this weakness in feed grains.  With the price of wheat still undercutting the price of corn around the world we have to imagine that the price of corn is going to have a hard time being supported by much export demand.  I have talked about all of the examples of feed wheat being purchased in these past few weeks especially in the Asian countries.  As long as this is the case I find it hard for corn to stay at these price levels.

Fundamentally we still stand bearish especially in the wheat and corn markets.  Technically we are starting to point lower as well in many of these products.  The 50 day moving average for corn has crossed below the 200 suggesting the longer term trend is heading lower.   Please call EHedger if you would like to discuss developing a marketing strategy for 2012. Our grain marketing software can help you discover your risk based on your current strategy and help you make marketing decisions going forward.  Have a great weekend!

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Closing Comments 11-17-11

Nov 17, 2011

Grains finished sharply lower with corn leading the way.  December corn settled 28 ¼ cents lower at $6.14 ½, but at one point was 32 ½ cents lower.  January soybeans finished 19 ½ cents lower at $11.68 ¼, and December wheat down 24 ¼ cents at $5.92 ½.

Why did we collapse today?  For one corn sales were extremely weak for the second week in a row.  Net corn sales were 208,900 MTs which basically says it all.  Bean sales were net 746,100 MTs and wheat sales 317,100 MTs.

On top of the obvious demand destruction we also had outside markets sharply lower.  Crude oil was over $4 lower at one point while the Dow Jones futures were 160 lower.  There were reports of basis levels dropping this morning as well.  All of these combined factors were causes for the sell-off in prices.

The feed wheat story is still a very important key to this weakness.  With the price of wheat still undercutting the price of corn around the world we have to imagine that the price of corn is going to have a hard time being supported by much export demand.  I have talked about all of the examples of feed wheat being purchased in these past few weeks especially in the Asian countries.  As long as this is the case I find it hard for corn to stay at these price levels.

Export sales estimates vs actual:

                                                            Estimated Range:                             Actual:

Corn:                                                 250,000 – 600,000 MTs                   208,900 MTs

Soybeans:                                          450,000 – 700,000 MTs                   746,100 MTs

Wheat:                                               300,000 – 500,000 MTs                   317,100 MTs

Cattle on Feed will be released Friday and expectations are as follows:

On Feed November 1st                  104%

Placements During Oct                    99%

Marketings in Oct                           101%

Fundamentally we still stand bearish wheat/corn especially.  Technically many of these markets are starting to point lower as well.  The 50 day moving average for corn has crossed below the 200 suggesting the longer term trend is heading lower.   Please call EHedger if you would like to discuss developing a marketing strategy for 2012. Our grain marketing software can help you discover your risk based on your current strategy and help you make marketing decisions going forward.

Chart: January Soybeans

Chart: December Corn

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-16-2011

Nov 16, 2011

Grains finished the day lower reversing some of yesterday’s gains.  Wheat was originally leading the support today but by the end it was the downside leader down 16 cents.  December corn finished 2 ¾ cents lower and January soybeans 12 ½ cents lower.

For the first time since July we have crude oil trading back above $100 per barrel.  It is interesting to point out that at this time in 2008 the 50 week average corn price was about $5.38 while the average 50 week crude price was about $106. Now the 50 week average for corn is at $6.83 while the crude oil is at $94.  We also had wheat about 50 cents more expensive then as it is now (50 week average). There are many reasons for these prices but it is interesting to see where we line up comparatively.

There were more reports of feed wheat purchased by S Korea this morning.  They purchased 55,000 MTs of option-origin corn and 55,000 MTs of option origin feed wheat.  I still think the world wheat supply and discount to corn is going to weigh on corn prices here in the US.  Beans are still well oversold to corn but demand hasn’t been all that great to warrant a strong rally.  Today we found more upside resistance on that month-long trendline (see chart).

Export sales will be released tomorrow and estimates are as follows:

Corn:                                                  250,000 – 600,000 MTs

Soybeans:                                           450,000 – 700,000 MTs

Wheat:                                               300,000 – 500,000 MTs

Cattle on Feed will be released Friday and expectations are as follows:

On Feed November 1st                104%

Placements During Oct                 99%

Marketings in Oct                       101%

For now we want to take advantage of this strong basis in the cash market where possible.  It is not hard to believe that we ration enough corn demand that we are trading lower than these levels going into next year.  If you would like a free consultation for your 2012 marketing strategy, please call us at 866-433-4371 or signup for our research using the link below. 

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

Chart: January Soybeans

Chart 11.16.11

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-14-2011

Nov 14, 2011

Grains finished the day mixed with December corn down 5 cents, January soybeans up 2 ¾ cents, and wheat down 1 cent.

Outside markets were rather weak and helped lead corn lower.  Over the weekend we had reports of Vietnam purchasing Australian feed grade wheat and Malaysia purchasing Ukrainian feed grade wheat.  Last week it was announced that Openfield, which is a large UK coop, has signed a contract with a US company to deliver feed wheat with the first load being shipped next week.  As wheat continues to undercut corn in many parts of the world (including the US) eventually it will start showing up in the futures price.  Ethanol production is the one source of demand that seems to be really helping basis lately but after the blender’s credit expires this year will the bids still be as strong?

The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report was delayed until Monday afternoon on account of the holiday.  For corn the Managed Money increased their net long positions by 23,719 contracts of corn as of last Tuesday using Futures/Options combined.  They now hold a net long position of 218,997 corn contracts.  For soybeans they decreased their net long position by 7,435 contracts and now hold a net long position of 28,272 contracts.  They are still net short Chicago wheat but overall net long ALL wheat by 2,394 contracts using futures and options.

Crop progress was also out and still shows the corn harvest well ahead of schedule.  Total harvested is at 93% while the 5 year average is at 82%.  Ohio is still behind schedule at 51% complete.  Beans are also ahead of schedule at 96% complete compared to the 5 year average of 94%.

If you have any questions about your marketing plan or how EHedger may be able to help please give us a call.  Have a great weekend!

Chart: December Corn (Weekly)

Chart 11.14.11

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Closing Grain Comments 11-11-11

Nov 11, 2011

Grains closed mixed with December corn down 7 cents, January beans up 8 cents, and December wheat down 3 ¼.  For the week December corn finished 17 ¼ cents lower, January beans were 45 ½ cents lower, and December wheat was 20 cents lower.

Poor export sales and the USDA report were the main reasons for the decline in grain prices this week.  Despite the strength in the outside markets including crude oil and the bearish dollar grains couldn’t hold much support.  The large world wheat stocks are still weighing on US feed grains.  A favorable start to the South American growing season has also been weighing on soybeans.

Going forward we think exports will suffer with such a large world wheat crop supply.  Even today the US Grains Council reported that Taiwan and Japan have switched over to buy Ukrainian feed wheat in place of US corn.  This morning it was announced that Openfield, which is a large UK coop, has signed a contract with a US company to deliver feed wheat with the first load being shipped next week.  As wheat continues to undercut corn in many parts of the world (including the US) eventually it will start showing up in the futures price.  Ethanol production is the one source of demand that seems to be really helping basis lately but after the blender’s credit expires this year will the bids still be as strong?

On a side note the CME announced a pledge of a $300 million guarantee to SIPC Trustee to help facilitate the release of customer funds from the MF Global bankruptcy.  This is great for those who have money still tied up at MF Global.  Again, I like to stress the importance of having a solid reputable clearing firm that doesn’t engage in proprietary trading, investment banking, and other forms of conglomerate finance involving outside market risk.

If you have any questions about your marketing plan or how EHedger may be able to help please give us a call.  Have a great weekend!

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-10-2011

Nov 10, 2011

Grains finished weak after poor export sales for corn and a continued weakness from the Supply and Demand report.  December corn finished 9 ½ cents lower at $6.46 ½, January soybeans 16 cents lower at $11.69 ½, and December wheat down 21 ¼ cents at $6.21 ¾.

Today’s export sales for corn were extremely weak at 251,900 MTs.  This was down 60 percent from last week and 75 from the 4-week average.  Corn basis has remained strong, but a lot of that could be the ethanol tax credit expiring and ethanol producers rising up to meet the demand of the blender before year end.  For bean sales we were a bit stronger at 604,000 MTs and wheat sales at 298,500 MTs.

Yesterday’s S & D report was rather neutral for corn and bearish for beans/wheat.  For corn they did lower their yield estimate to 146.7 bringing their total production estimate down 123 million bushels from the October report. At the same time they also lowered their feed estimate by 100 million bushels so their overall carryout was still pegged at 843 million bu which was above estimates.  We also had an increase in expected Chinese production going from 182 million MTs of corn to 184.5 million MTs of corn.

For beans we also found a reduction in average yield to 41.3 but they lowered export expectations by 50 million bu which ended up raising the US carryout guess to 195.  The world carryout estimate also was increased and part of the reason for a continued selloff.

Wheat still shows a massive amount of world carryover with yet another increase in stocks.  They still did not change their feed estimates from 160 even though we feel that number could be closer to 250 when it is all said and done.

Outside markets finished strong with crude oil over $2 higher crossing that 200 day moving average.

If you have any questions about your marketing plan please give us a call.  Have a great weekend!

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-9-11

Nov 09, 2011

Grains finished weak on negative outside markets and the November USDA Supply and Demand Report.  December corn opened sharply lower but finished down only 4 ½ cents on a two sided market trade.  January soybeans finished 19 ½ cents lower at $11.85 ½, and December wheat down 14 cents at $6.43.

The much anticipated November Supply and Demand report was rather neutral for corn and bearish for beans/wheat.  For corn they did lower their yield estimate to 146.7 bringing their total production estimate down 123 million bushels from the October report. At the same time they also lowered their feed estimate by 100 million bushels so their overall carryout was still pegged at 843 million bu which was above estimates.  We also had an increase in expected Chinese production going from 182 million MTs of corn to 184.5 million MTs of corn.

For beans we also found a reduction in average yield to 41.3 but they lowered export expectations by 50 million bu which ended up raising the US carryout guess to 195.  The world carryout estimate also was increased and part of the reason for a bearish day.

Wheat still shows a massive amount of world carryover with yet another increase in stocks.  They still did not change their feed estimates from 160 even though we feel that number could be closer to 250 when it is all said and done. 

BESIDES the USDA report we also had a major selloff in the Dow Jones and major rally in the US Dollar (bearish).  This was weighing on most commodities today and helped keep grains lower into the close despite corn’s best efforts to trade higher. 

Tomorrow morning we have export sales out at 7:30 am.  I will have those posted in the morning letter.  Please call in if you have any questions.

Estimates for Export Sales

Corn                                                     550,000 – 750,000 MTs

Soybeans                                              400,000 – 600,000 MTs

Wheat                                                  350,000 – 450,000 MTs

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-8-2011

Nov 08, 2011

Grains finished strong with wheat leading the way.  December corn settled 7 ¼ cents higher at $6.60 ½, January soybeans up 3 ¼ cents at $12.05, and December wheat up 18 ¼ cents at $6.57.

Just like the day before the October Supply and Demand report we found some pre-report buying.  Chicago wheat had quite a bit of volume throughout the day, outpacing soybean volume.  We did see supportive outside markets to add to the strength as well.  Crude oil was up over $1.40 and the dollar down over 300.

Our report estimates are listed in the spreadsheet below.  We still think the market may be overestimating demand, and underestimating supply for corn.  We are still going with a 41.5 soybean yield which would be unchanged from the latest USDA report.  With such a large world wheat stocks number we expect it will continue to weigh on feed grain prices, especially the most expensive one-US corn.

At this point we will just have wait and see what the report says tomorrow morning.  We will have the results in the morning grain letter and automated morning phone call.  Please call in if you have any questions.

Chart 11.8.11

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-7-2011

Nov 07, 2011

It was another wild day in the grains this time heading lower.  For corn it is pretty amazing how well it has held its trading range over the last 3 weeks staying right at the 200 day moving average.  Leading into this report it is expected that we won’t see much more movement unless there is some massive liquidation from MF Positions that are getting transferred without the total funds (at least that was the rumor today).

Near the grain close the CME Group petitioned the USDA to request that the November 9th Supply and Demand report to get pushed back until Monday the 14th to allow time for all the positions/money to be transferred adequately.  This is very unprecedented and we will update you with any fresh news to their response.  As of right now the report will still be held on Wednesday November 9th.

Our report estimates are listed in the spreadsheet below.  We still think that the market may be overestimating demand, and underestimating supply for corn.  We are still going with a 41.5 soybean yield which would be unchanged from the latest USDA report.  With such a large world wheat stocks number we expect it will continue to weigh on feed grain prices, especially the most expensive one-US corn.  If you have extra bushels to sell before the report, it may not be a bad idea to lock some more in while the basis is decent for many areas.

If you have any questions please let us know.  

Chart 11.7.11

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11-4-11

Nov 04, 2011

It was a fairly quiet day at the Chicago Board of Trade as everyone waits to see what the outcome of the transfer of positions and accounts out of MF Global to other firms will be. December corn settled 2 ¼ cents higher closing at $6.55 ¾ while January soybeans were 6 ¼ lower finishing the week at $12.21 and December Chicago Wheat was ¾ higher closing at 6.36 ¾. There isn’t much to talk about today in the way of fresh grain news. The outside markets were supported early in the day on the heels of better than expected jobs data. By the end of the grain close the dollar was higher and the Dow Jones was 70 points lower. It appears to us that traders are waiting to see what will happen when all of the MF Global accounts are actually transferred and positions are liquidated by those that are unable to margin their current positions. On top of this situation we have a USDA Supply/Demand and Production report next Wednesday. I have included our Supply and Demand estimates in the chart below. The main demand differences we have from the October report are the ethanol usage as well as the wheat feeding number. We still think the USDA is underestimating the amount of wheat being fed in the US, and we also feel the conversion ratio they are using is too low for ethanol production resulting in an overestimation of corn used.  (see chart below)

Until the November 9th Supply and Demand report the market could continue to chop around as it has over the past few weeks. Given the discount world grains have to undercut our prices, as well as the net long positions the spec longs are still holding, we like making sure the downside risk is well covered. We like remaining with the current EHedger recommendations.  Have a great weekend! 

Chart 11.4.11

 

To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

Thursday's Market Recap 11/3/11

Nov 03, 2011

Markets finished strong with beans leading the way. December corn finished 8 ½, January soybeans finished 24 ½ cents higher at $12.27 ¼, and December wheat 12 ½ cents at $6.36.

We started the day out stronger and with the ECB cutting their key interest rate by 25 basis points we found extra strength from the outsides.  The Dow was up over 200 points by the end of the day and the dollar was sharply lower.

Export sales were rather weak for soybeans and at the high end of estimates for corn.  Wheat was as expected.

                                           Estimated Range                                 Actual

Corn                                   375,000 – 650,000 MTs                   622,600 MTs

Soybeans                            400,000 – 800,000 MTs                   209,700 MTs

Wheat                                 300,000 – 500,000 MTS                  320,100 MTs

I have included our Supply and Demand estimates in the chart below.  The main demand differences we have from the October report are the ethanol usage as well as the wheat feeding number.  We still think the USDA is underestimating the amount of wheat being fed in the US, and we also feel the conversion ratio they are using is too low for ethanol production resulting in an overestimation of corn used.   (see chart)

Until the November 9th Supply and Demand report the market could continue to chop around as it has over the past few weeks.  Given the discount world grains have to undercut our prices, as well as the net long positions the spec longs are still holding, we like making sure the downside risk is well covered. To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

 

EHedger

 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

Wednesday's Grain Recap 11/2/11

Nov 02, 2011

Markets finished mixed to lower with December corn reversing its gains from yesterday.  December corn sits at 10 cents lower on the week, beans are down 23 ½ cents on the week, and wheat is down 21 cents.

There was a lot of economic data out today that put a positive spin on outside markets, but despite this grains still were unable to hold much support.  Yesterday’s late corn rally on heavy volume was basically worked back out of the market today.  The main fundamental news out this morning was Informa’s crop estimates.  Informa left their US national average corn yield at 149.5 which is the same as their October guess.  They also left their soybean guess unchanged at 41.8.  FC Stone is projecting 148.4 for corn and 42.2 for beans.

Tomorrow morning we will have export sales released at 7:30 am.  The estimates are as follows:

Corn                                  375,000 – 650,000 MTs

Soybeans                            400,000 – 800,000 MTs

Wheat                                300,000 – 500,000 MTS

We will have the actual results in the morning email.

Until the November 9th Supply and Demand report the market could continue to chop around as it has over the past few weeks.  Given the discount world grains have to undercut our prices, as well as the net long positions the spec longs are still holding, we like making sure the downside risk is well covered.  To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

 

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

 

EHedger

 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

 

EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 11/1/11

Nov 01, 2011

Markets finished mixed.  Corn had a sharp rally off the lows late in the day to finish 7 ¼ cents higher.  January soybeans finished 14 ¾ lower at $12.02 ½, and December wheat finished up 1 ¾ at $6.30.

Early on it looked to be a rather weak trading session with the outside markets sharply lower after the Greek referendum call. Basically we could see an undoing of the agreement that was made last week which was the base reason for sending the outside markets sharply higher. Today the Euro currency finished sharply lower and the US Dollar sharply higher which would typically be a negative factor for grains.

The late day session rally was on heavy volume in corn and we can speculate that it may have been a liquidation move.  In the last 15 minutes 25,000 contracts of December corn traded on the screen rallying the contract 14 cents!  There was no 1pm grain announcement or outside market move that warranted such a rally and so we think it could have been someone short having to get out, whether it was related to MF Global or not I am not sure.

The rally also put us right back to where we have been for the past 3 weeks and I am beginning to sound like a broken record but we finished just above the 200 day moving average.  Beans on the other hand did not rally with corn and the November-December corn/bean spread posted new settlement lows of 1.82 to 1.  The market continues to favor corn over soybeans even going out to new crop with the 2012 spread trading at 1.99 to 1.

FC Stone came out with their yield estimates today.  They are projecting the national average corn yield to be 148.4 which compares to their previous estimate of 148.7 in October and the USDA October estimate of 148.1.  They are projecting the national average soybean yield to be 42.2.4 which compares to their previous estimate of 42.8 in October and the USDA October estimate of 41.5. Until this November 9th report the market could continue to chop around as it has, but given the discount world grains have to undercut our prices, as well as the net long positions the spec longs are still holding, we like making sure the downside risk is well covered.  To receive a two week trial of our services please contact an EHedger broker today or sign up using the link below.

Chart: December corn 15 minute chart w/ volume

Chart: December corn daily chart

For a free trial of EHedger research please sign up using the link below:

www.ehedger.com/signup/

Best Regards,

 

EHedger

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

Receive the latest news, information and commentary customized for you. Sign up to receive Top Producer's eNewsletter today!

 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions