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December 2012 Archive for EHedger Report

RSS By: Dustin Johnson

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/21/12

Dec 21, 2012

Holiday markets continue as soybeans retrace part of the recent losses.  Jan soybeans settled 22 cents higher at $14.30 ¾, March corn up 5 ½ cents at $7.02, and March wheat up 1 ½ cents at $7.92.

It was a slow news day for grains. Outside markets were sharply lower after the Republicans in the house failed to pass the "Plan B" bill.  The Dow Jones futures were over 200 points lower at one point in the trading session while the dollar was sharply higher.  Usually this would be bearish grains and oilseeds but they shrugged off the weakness.

The recent cancellation of soybean orders by China has resulted in a massive liquidation.  Even with today’s rally we still finished 65 ¼ cents lower on the week.  We will have to continue to watch demand for direction until we get to the January 11th reports.

Now that we have had one day of reprieve the selling momentum may slow.  Wheat has broken enough for the US to become competitive again.  This may provide underlying support now that the funds are net short wheat and liquidation no longer means SELL.  Funds are still net long corn and soybeans as stated in the Commitment of Traders report.

Holiday trade is expected to be thin over the next few trading sessions so we expect grains to be choppy.  With the lack of fresh fundamental news they may follow outside markets.

We will be open on Christmas Eve until noon and closed Christmas Day.  Markets will reopen on the 26th at their usual morning open-outcry times.  For a trial of our services please click here.  Have a great weekend and Happy Holidays!!

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/20/12

Dec 20, 2012

Grain and oilseed markets continue to slide lower.  March corn closed 6 ½ cents lower at $6.96 ½ March soybeans 26 ¼ cents lower at $14.04 ¾, and March wheat 15 ¼ cents lower at $7.90 ½.

The USDA announced more soybean cancellations this morning.  China cancelled 540,000 MTs of 2012 - 2013 soybeans which is on top of the 420,000 cancelled yesterday.  That’s over 35 million bushels of soybeans cancelled in 2 days!  This is a significant amount on any year let alone when we were only expected to have a 130 million bushel carryout (December WASDE Estimate).  Exactly why we are seeing cancellations after such strong sales in the last few weeks is still unknown.  It could be for a number of reasons such as switching to South American beans or cancelling previous sales that were well above current levels.  Gulf basis was down 10-18 cents today.  With soybeans selling off and another poor corn export number this morning corn didn’t have much trouble breaking below the crucial $7 support level.  Corn looks poised to fill the gap it made over the 4th of July (see chart).

Front Month CornFront Month Corn

Wheat sales were strong but that market has been negatively affected by the residual selling from the corn and soybean markets.  We are once again competitively priced in the world market but from a technical standpoint wheat still looks negative.  The next downside target would be at the 68.2% Fibonacci retracement of $7.58 (see chart).

March WheatMarch Wheat

Friday will be the last trading day for January grain and oilseed options.  There are still over 10,000 January $14.00 soybean puts as of this morning’s open interest report so watch for breaks toward this level! 

January Soybean Option Open InterestJanuary Soybean Option Open Interest

We will be open on Christmas Eve until noon and closed Christmas Day.  Markets will reopen on the 26th at their usual morning open-outcry times.  We expect low volume and choppy trading over the next two weeks as many traders are out for vacation.  For a free two week trial of our services please click on the sign-up link below.  Have a great week!

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/19/12

Dec 19, 2012

Grain and oilseed markets finished sharply lower at the CBOT this afternoon.  March corn was 17 cents lower at $7.03, March soybeans 29 ½ cents lower at $14.31, and March wheat 5 ½ cents lower at $8.05 ¾.

Follow through weakness from yesterday, bearish ethanol data, and technical indicators contributed to today’s weakness. We had a build in ethanol stocks to 20.8 mln bbl which was also bearish for corn.  Large stop orders were triggered below the recent March corn lows and we settled below the 200 day moving average (front month chart).  A break below $7 could mean corn is poised to fill its gap from the 4th of July (see chart).

Front Month CornFront Month Corn

Fundamentally we did see some supportive news for wheat.  The USDA announced that Egypt purchasing 110,000 MTs of US HRW wheat while Egypt’s GASC also announced the purchase of 180,000 MTs of SRW for Feb shipment.  US wheat is once again competitively priced in the world and could find support for this reason.  Wheat finished lower today mainly due to flow over weakness from the corn and soybeans.

Informa released their latest 2013 acreage estimates putting corn at 99.026 million acres!  They lowered soybean acres to 78.926 and put winter wheat at 42.198 million.  This may have added a little extra pressure on new crop corn prices today.  No major changes were noted for the US or South American forecasts during the next 5 days.

Friday will be the last trading day for January grain and oilseed options.  We will be open on Christmas Eve until noon and closed Christmas Day.  Markets will reopen on the 26th at their usual morning open-outcry times.  We expect low volume and choppy trading over the next two weeks as many traders are out for vacation.  For a free two week trial of our services please click on the sign-up link below.  Have a great week!

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/18/12

Dec 18, 2012

This morning’s soybean cancellations sent soybean prices sharply lower.  January soybeans closed 30 ¼ cents lower at $14.66.  March corn was 4 cents lower at $7.20 while March wheat settled 3 ¼ cents higher at $8.11 ¼.

The market was expecting the USDA to announce more soybean sales this morning at the usual 8:00am time.  To the market’s surprise the USDA announced the cancellation of 300,000 Mts of US soybeans to China as well as 120,000 MTs to "unknown" destinations.  They did announce a sale to 110,000 Mts of soybeans to another "unknown" destination at the same time.  The recent soybean strength has been fueled mostly by strong export demand so this was an especially large shock to the market.

Corn futures were weak mainly following soybeans lower.  Wheat was lower for most of the day but found strength into the close.  It could be that wheat has had the largest selloff recently and this is just short covering.  Concerns over central US dryness are also providing underlying support for wheat.

March corn found technical support at last week’s lows (see chart):March Corn

January soybeans settled below the 200 day moving average (grey line).  Further setbacks may trigger sellstops to take us back toward the low.  With January options expiring Friday we could see some larger price moves on position squaring.  Larger put open interest is noted at the $14.00 strike while larger call option open interest is noted at the $15.00 strike.

Soybean Chart

Open Interest Chart

Wednesday we will see ethanol production as well as Informa’s 2013 acreage estimates.  Friday will be the last trading day for January grain and oilseed options.  We will be open on Christmas Eve until noon and closed Christmas Day.  Markets will reopen on the 26th at their usual morning open-outcry times.  We expect low volume and choppy trading over the next two weeks as many traders are out for vacation.  If you have been waiting for a chance to price grain having hopeful orders above the market may not be a bad idea during this timeframe.  For a free two week trial of our services please click on the sign-up link below.  Have a great week!

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/17/12

Dec 17, 2012

CBOT markets were stronger overnight but failed to hold onto their early gains.  Volume during the day session was rather low and the lack of fundamental news was evident.  We did see a sale of soybeans to "unknown" but it was already priced into the market.  Poor soybean export inspections were noted for soybeans while corn and wheat were slightly better than expected.  March corn closed 6 ¾ cents lower at $7.24, January soybeans up ¼ of a cent at $14.96 ¼, and March wheat 6 cents lower at $8.08.

Weather in South America still looks mostly favorable with the exception of a few dry sections of Brazil.  It has been soybean demand driving price lately and it appears the funds have recommitted to long soybeans.  Looking at Friday’s commitment of traders report we saw 8,971 new longs and 7,643 less shorts for a net change of +16,614 contracts of beans.  While they are adding to their long soybean positions they are liquidating a large portion of their corn longs.  Between Wednesday December 5th and Tuesday December 11th, the managed money liquidated 37,398 of their long holdings and increased shorts by 16,074 contracts for a net change of -53,472 combined futures and options!  This is very evident when looking at how much soybean prices have gained on corn during this timeframe (see chart).

January Soybeans-March Corn RatioSoybean-Corn Ratio

Precipitation is expected to improve in the next 10 days in the US.  A large system will impact much of Kansas and sections of Oklahoma and Texas bringing up to 6" of snow.  With normal precipitation expected wheat markets are continuing their technical move lower.  Today is the first day March wheat has settled below its 200 day moving average since June 19th 2012.

March Chicago WheatMarch Chicago Wheat

Friday will be the last trading day for January grain and oilseed options.  We will be open on Christmas Eve until noon and closed Christmas Day.  Markets will reopen on the 26th at their usual morning open-outcry times.  We expect low volume and choppy trading over the next two weeks as many traders are out for vacation.  If you have been waiting for a chance to price grain having hopeful orders above the market may not be a bad idea during this timeframe.  For a free two week trial of our services please click on the sign-up link below.  Have a great week!

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

Friday's Grain and Oilseed Report

Dec 14, 2012

Grains and oilseeds closed higher after crush comes in as expected.  March corn closed 10 ½ cents higher at $7.30 ¾, March soybeans 19 cents higher at $14.91 ½, and March wheat up 5 ½ at $8.14.

NOPA crush came out as expected at 157.31 million bushels while soyoil stocks came in well above expectations at 2.384 bln lbs.  Despite the bearish stocks soybean oil rallied sharply along with soybeans closing 0.95 higher in the March contract.

Why the strong rally soybean rally today?  Even though the market was expecting crush to be at this level it still confirms that domestic demand hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.  With strong export sales and strong crush we are starting to see the funds come back into the market.  We are now over a $1.20 off the lows in soybeans and have settled above the 50 day moving average for the first time since September 20th (see chart).  We expect soybean prices to remain firm while corn stays range-bound until the January reports.

January Soybeans

March corn found support at its November lows and looks poised to try to make a move back up to its 50 day moving average at $7.44 ¾.  Much of the strength seems to be following soybeans demand based market rally.

March Corn

Wheat had a major technical selloff to reach the 200 day moving average but the selling seems to have slowed.  Volume was down substantially today

March Wheat 

 

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/12/12

Dec 12, 2012

Grains closed lower with wheat selling off sharply into the close.  March corn closed 2 ½ cents lower at $7.25 ½, January soybeans 1 ½ cents higher at $14.73 ½, March wheat down 9 ½ cents lower at $8.12.

There were no fresh USDA sale announcements this morning to prop up the market and funds were estimated to be heavy sellers of corn and wheat.  The FOMC decision to purchase more assets was supportive for commodities but most of it seemed to already be priced into the markets.  Corn demand for ethanol production was down 1.32% from last week while stocks were up sharply.  Overall the report was bearish.  CBOT markets are also seeing follow-through selling from yesterday’s Supply and Demand report and technical sell signals. 

Traditionally the December WASDE report is not a major market mover.  Traders were expecting corn exports to decrease but they kept demand numbers unchanged in the US.  This was considered supportive for corn and its price action has remained stable even through the massive selloff in wheat.

Wheat’s export demand was actually lowered by 50 million bushels which lowered wheat carryout by the same amount.  This was enough for price to fall below the long term trendline support.  Yesterday at 9:30 am we saw a major volume spike and selloff which was odd since the pit was open early and the market had 2 hours to digest the report information. It seems obvious that this is black box (computer based) trading that isn’t turning on until its usual timeframe.  We crossed a major technical trendline in wheat which is spurring stop orders and additional selling.  The market also had a major selloff in the last 60 seconds of the close today which maybe an attempt to settle the contract near the lows.  Take a look at the volume in the last 60 seconds of the trading session of March wheat in the chart below. 

Daily March Wheat ChartDaily March Wheat

1-Minute Bar March Wheat Chart1 Minute Bar Chart

Soybean carryout fell right in line with expectations at 130 million bushels and beans have settled relatively unchanged ever since.  Soybean production was left unchanged at 55.0 MMTs in Argentina and 81.00 MMTs in Brazil.  Estimates were calling for slight decreases for both.  Corn production was lowered by 0.5 MMTs to 27.5 in Argentina and left unchanged in Brazil at 70.0 MMTs.  Chinese corn production was raised by 8 MMTs which was rather surprising.

NOPA crush will be released on Friday at 7:30am.  November’s crush number was higher than expected and we have to start seeing more rationing.  Friday’s report will be a big indicator for soybeans.

Export Sales Expectations for Thursday, December 13th, 2012 at 7:30am (Dow Jones Poll)

Wheat                       300,000 – 600,000 MTs

Corn                          150,000 – 400,000 MTs

Soybeans                  550,000 – 900,000 MTs

Soybean Meal            200,000 – 350,000 MTs

Soybean Oil               5,000 – 25,000 MTs

 

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/11/12

Dec 12, 2012

The initial reaction to the USDA report was mixed-friendly corn and soybeans and bearish wheat.

Traditionally the December WASDE report is not a major market mover.  Traders were expecting corn exports to decrease but they kept demand numbers unchanged in the US.  This was considered supportive for corn and price action remained stable even through the massive selloff in wheat.

Wheat’s export demand was actually lowered by 50 million bushels which lowered wheat carryout by the same amount.  This was enough for price to fall below the long term trendline support.  When 9:30 am arrived we had a sharp spike in volume and another major selloff.  It appears the algorithmic (computer based) trading is still waiting until the 9:30 timeframe before turning on (see charts).

Daily March Wheat ChartDaily March Wheat

15-Minute Bar March Wheat Chart15 Minute Wheat

Soybean carryout fell right in line with expectations at 130 million bushels and left beans mostly unchanged for the day.  Soybean production was left unchanged at 55.0 MMTs in Argentina and 81.00 MMTs in Brazil.  Estimates were calling for slight decreases for both.  Corn production was lowered by 0.5 MMTs to 27.5 in Argentina and left unchanged in Brazil at 70.0 MMTs.  Chinese corn production was raised by 8 MMTs which was rather surprising.

The forecast reduced some rain in northern Argentina early next week but increased rains in the 7-14 day forecast in the southeastern portion of the country.  Brazilian weather remains favorable.

NOPA crush will be released on Friday at 7:30am.  November’s crush number was higher than expected and we have to start seeing more rationing.  With the sale of 115,000 MTs of beans to China this morning and rumors of more today we continue to see strong demand.  Friday’s report will be a big indicator for soybeans.

USDA REPORT SUMMARYUSDA Report

 

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

 

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/10/12

Dec 10, 2012

Grains were weaker today while soybeans rallied late in the trading session.  Pre-positioning ahead of the December WASDE report seems to favor soybeans over corn.  Bear-spreading was prevalent across most grain and oilseed markets.

We aren’t expecting any major surprises for tomorrow.  The average market guess is calling for a 2 million MT decline in Argentine corn production but a rise in US carryout to 663 million bushels.  Export sales have been dismal but much of that should be reflective in today’s price already.

The market is anticipating a slight drop in US soybean carryout from the strong export demand most notably from China. The average analyst estimate is calling for a 130 million bushel carryout in the US (down 10 million from the November estimate).

The USDA announced a sale of wheat to Egypt for 115,000 MTs.  We are once again competitively priced in the world and are at the low end of a massive price range (see chart).  I wouldn’t be surprised to find support especially with the dry conditions for HRW.

Wheat Chart

Without much fresh bullish information March corn seems poised to test its September lows.  Weather is improving in Argentina and export demand has been non-existent.

Corn Chart

Please contact us for a complimentary review of your marketing current marketing plan.  To sign up for a free two week trial of our newsletters with hedge recommendations click here.

dfj@ehedger.com

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/7/12

Dec 07, 2012

Grain and oilseed markets were sharply lower at the close.  March corn closed 14 ¼ cents lower at $7.37 ¼, January soybeans down 19 cents at $14.72 ¼, and March wheat down a penny at $8.61.

After some major technical levels were breached markets turned lower this morning. January soybeans touched their 50 day moving average and had a sharp selloff around 7:30 am.  At about the same time corn broke below its 50 day moving average and short term range which triggered sell stops.

January Soybeans (50 day moving average touched and failed)January Soybeans

March Corn (50 day moving average breached – Red line)March Corn

The USDA announced another sale of soybeans to China this time for 115,000 MTs.  Demand remains strong and we thing downside moves are somewhat limited with current conditions.

Weather in Argentina is starting to improve and the Brazilian soybean production is expected to be strong.  We expect choppy holiday trade to continue.  We want to watch soybean export demand for direction while we expect corn demand to remain dismal.  Corn option volatility is starting to rise but still relatively cheap before the report in our opinion.  Have a great weekend!!

Please contact us for more information on how to implement the strategy discussed or a complimentary review of your marketing plan.

dfj@ehedger.com

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/6/12

Dec 06, 2012

Soybeans finished strong after a supportive weekly export sales report.  January soybeans closed 12 cents higher at $14.91 ¼, March corn 6 ¼ cents lower at $7.51 ½, and March wheat 2 cents higher at $8.62.

The morning session was rather weak for grains and oilseeds especially after the opening bell.  The US Dollar Index was sharply higher which weighed on commodities especially crude oil.  Soybean sales were strong but the highs weren’t made until the end of the day.  Corn was understandably weak throughout the day given their poor export sales.

Weekly Export Sales (million bushels)Weekly Export Sales

Conab is estimating Brazil’s soybean production to be 82.6 million MTs and corn at 71.9 million.  Respectively the USDA is estimating 81 million and 70 million.  A strong Brazilian crop still supports our re-ownership idea.  For those of you who haven’t had a chance to see the strategy please click on the video link below.


Demand continues to control the market.  As we saw today, the market reactions coincided with the divergence from sales expectations with soybeans and soymeal outpacing the rest.  March corn is still holding steady between the 50 and 100 day moving averages. 

Corn Chart

Volatility remains quite low from the range corn has set but can it stay that way through the January reports??  The chart below depicts how far vol has come off its highs made over the summer.

Corn Volatility

Please contact us for more information on how to implement the strategy discussed or a complimentary review of your marketing plan.

dfj@ehedger.com

www.ehedger.com/signup 

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/5/12

Dec 05, 2012

The grain and oilseed markets were strong Wednesday on rumors of Chinese soy purchasing and stronger outside markets.  March corn closed 5 ¾ cents higher at $7.57 ¾, March soybeans 23 ½ higher at $14.73 ¾, and March wheat 3 ½ cents higher at $8.60.

In addition to the rumors of Chinese soybean purchasing overnight we also had a technical breakout above the 200 day moving average in January soybeans which may have caused more short covering.

January SoybeansJanuary Soybeans

STATS Canada released their production estimates this morning.  To the market’s surprise they reduced canola and oat production when the average analyst guess was calling for an increase.  On the flip side they increased wheat production more than expected and may have been the weak factor for wheat futures today.

Analyst Guesses for Weekly Export Sales (million bushels)     

Corn:                                                   300,000 – 500,000 MTs

Soybeans:                                          400,000 – 700,000 MTs

Wheat:                                                300,000 – 500,000 MTs

Source: Dow Jones Poll        

Actual results will be released on Thursday at 7:30 am CST

Wet conditions in Argentina persist and more flooding is expected this week.  A drier pattern is in the works for this weekend.  HRW Country has rains forecasted for this weekend but amounts are not expected to be great enough to positively affect wheat.  US dryness has even helped support new crop prices as December ‘13 corn tied its October high today.

Wheat and corn are both suspended in the same situation… they can’t overextend pricewise as they still need to compete in the world market.  The market has already priced in the Argentine weather problems and the poor US winter wheat crop conditions, now it is up to demand to keep the rally going.  It is important to note that soybean demand remains very strong with exports running ahead of schedule and no significant signs of crush demand rationing.

For those looking for a soybean re-ownership strategy see video below.

Contact us for more information on how to implement this strategy or a complimentary review of your marketing plan.

dfj@ehedger.com

www.ehedger.com/signup 

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/3/12

Dec 03, 2012

Monday CBOT markets were mixed to start the month.  March corn closed 2 cents higher at $7.54 ¾, January soybeans up 15 cents at $14.53 ¾, and March wheat down 2 ¾ cents at $8.60 ¾.

Stronger manufacturing data out of China was supportive for early hour trading but poor export inspections and declining outside markets weighed on grains.

Export Inspections (million bushels)

                                                        Actual   Expected

Corn:                                                 9.62         24.5

Soybeans:                                        51.08        58.5

Wheat:                                              14.18       19.0

 

Much of the strength was from beginning of the month money-flow entering the market.  We also had Egypt buying 285,000 MTs of wheat over the weekend 165,000 MTs of which was from the US.  Even with this sale wheat held the least amount of support by the close.

There were no major changes to the midday South American forecast.  Argentina’s forecast is still too wet for fieldwork this week.  Deteriorating wheat conditions and delayed planting of summer crops is giving the market a bullish tilt.

Wheat and corn are both suspended in the same situation… they can’t overextend pricewise as they still need to compete in the world market.  The market has already priced in the Argentine weather problems and the poor US winter wheat crop conditions, now it is up to demand to keep the rally going.  It is important to note that soybean demand remains very strong.  Exports are running ahead of schedule and the November NOPA crush was 9 million bushels more than expected.

If you would like to receive our expanded commentary including hedge recommendations, morning highlights, and/or morning automated call please sign up using the link below.  Have a great week!

www.ehedger.com/signup 

Best Regards, 

EHedger 

866-433-4371

www.EHedger.com 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.

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