EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 1/16/13
Jan 16, 2013
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all finished higher Wednesday with soybeans leading the way. It appears the market is still ready to buy soybeans which could be in anticipation of large soybean sales on Thursday morning’s export sales report.
Corn closed higher but traded lower for much of the day after the EIA Ethanol numbers were below estimates and considered "bearish". In fact this is the lowest weekly production since they began recording it in June of 2010. Ethanol stocks were also the highest they have been in 4 weeks. With ethanol profit margins in the red for so many weeks in a row it is not surprising to see the slump in production.
Weekly Export Sales Guesses for January 17th 2013:
|
Corn
|
|
250,000 – 475,000
|
|
Soybeans
|
|
550,000 – 750,000
|
|
Wheat
|
|
275,000 – 425,000
|
|
Soymeal
|
|
75,000 – 150,000
|
|
Soyoil
|
|
10,000 – 25,000
|
Colder temperatures in the US are still supportive for wheat and the dryness in Argentina and Southern Brazil are supporting soybeans. As of right now we don’t believe South American production will be cut from current estimates but it warrants monitoring the forecast for any changes.
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