EHedger USDA Report Breakdown
Jan 11, 2013
Grains and oilseeds finished mixed after the report. March corn closed 10 cents higher at $7.08 ¾, March soybeans 6 ½ cents lower at $13.73 ¼, and March wheat 10 ¼ higher at $7.54 ¾.
The net changes fell in line with the USDA report results. Corn had a rather favorable report after grain stocks came in at 8.03 billion bushels (average guess was 8.283 billion). Corn production was slightly higher than expected but so was use. The WASDE report raised feed demand by 300 million bushels for the year lowering carryout expectations to 602 million.
Soybean stocks were 1.966 billion which was right in line with expectations. Soybean production was stronger than expected after harvested acres were reported at 76.1 million. This was rather bearish for those looking for lower production and the market traded down to new lows for the move.
Wheat had the strongest report when all-wheat acres were reported at 41.8 million almost a full million less than expected. With a poor start the growing year, lower acres than expected, and a competitive price in the world market again, wheat has the strongest fundamentals in our opinion. Given the fact that corn stocks came in less than expected we feel both products have a chance to at least hold support at these levels.
New crop corn and soybeans both closed lower. Bullspreading was evident since old crop supply is known to be tight while new crop acre estimates continue to come in large. Although I agree that we need to hold solid prices through March 1st to get the higher insurance revenue guarantee, the higher acres are a concern of ours for 2013 prices. For this reason we want to remain with the current EHedger sale recommendations especially through March 1st. If you would like a second opinion of your current marketing plan, please sign up for a trial using the link below.
USDA REPORT SUMMARY WITH EXPECTATIONS
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Trade Estimates for US Dec. 1 Stocks
|
|
|
|
|
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USDA
|
Average
|
Range
|
Dec 1, 2011
|
Sept 1, 2012
|
|
Wheat
|
1.660
|
1,684
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1,553-1,750
|
1,663
|
2,104
|
|
Corn
|
8.030
|
8,219
|
8,000-8,750
|
9,647
|
988
|
|
Soybeans
|
1.966
|
1,981
|
1,800-2,100
|
2,370
|
169
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Trade Estimate for US Crops
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|
|
|
|
|
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USDA
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Average
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Range
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2012
|
2011
|
|
Corn
|
10.780
|
10,650
|
10,325-10,800
|
10,725
|
12,358
|
|
Corn Yield
|
123.4
|
122.6
|
121.3-125.0
|
122.3
|
147.2
|
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Harvested Acres
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87.375
|
86.89
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84.56-87.72
|
88
|
83.981
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybeans
|
3.015
|
2,993
|
2,935-3,104
|
2,971
|
3,094
|
|
Soybean Yield
|
39.6
|
39.6
|
38.9-41.0
|
39.3
|
41.9
|
|
Harvested Acres
|
76.104
|
75.56
|
74.70-75.90
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75.693
|
73.776
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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Trade Estimate for U.S. 2013 Ending Stocks
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|
|
|
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USDA
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Average
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Range
|
2013
|
2012
|
|
Wheat
|
716
|
741
|
637-792
|
754
|
743
|
|
Corn
|
602
|
647
|
489-760
|
647
|
988
|
|
Soybeans
|
135
|
135
|
114-186
|
130
|
169
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Trade Estimates for US Winter Wheat Acres
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|
|
|
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USDA
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Average
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Range
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2012-13
|
2011-12
|
|
All Winter
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41.8
|
42.585
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41.700-44.650
|
41.324
|
40.646
|
|
Hard Red
|
29.1
|
30.296
|
29.900-31.000
|
29.863
|
28.480
|
|
Soft Red
|
9.42
|
8.898
|
8.217-10.000
|
8.120
|
8.561
|
|
White
|
3.27
|
3.474
|
3.300-3.920
|
3.350
|
3.360
|
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Best Regards,
EHedger
866-433-4371
www.EHedger.com
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. The market information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Market information may not be consistent with current or future market positions of EHedger LLC, its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or agents.
