May 25, 2012
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Economic Sense

RSS By: Matt Bogard, AgWeb.com

Matt's primary interest is in the biotech industry and ag policy.

Is the Finely Textured Beef Issue Just A Matter of Consumer Preferences?

May 04, 2012

 

By Matt Bogard
 
Previously I made a post entitled ‘Pink Slime: What is Seen and Unseen.’ Having made its way through some social media channels, it has received some interesting comments. A couple common arguments that seem to stand out, not only in my posts, but also in other articles could be generalized as follows:
 
"This is how the free market works. Supply chains will adjust. This isn't a unique situation that requires any further analysis. It doesn't stand out among the millions of other choices consumers make on a regular basis between numerous other products."
 
"Why even mention it. So what if consumers are uninformed. Education and evidence are really irrelevant to this issue (or any issue for that matter) because people are irrational. "
 
These comments really help to clarify the real issue here. The supply chain is really at the heart of the issue for many of those slamming pink slime. Its not pink slime in and of itself that is their only problem. They don't like modern food supply chains (think ADM, Monsanto, Wal-Mart), and if they get their way, our food supply chains would more closely resemble the balkanized gasoline market, with all of the restrictions and the required bottlenecking boutique of gasoline blends etc. and of course the high prices.
 
If I thought this were simply about food preferences, food choices, and consumers making decisions based on those preferences, and the markets  responding, then of course this would all be a moot discussion. Those that simply choose to avoid finely textured lean beef, are not necessarily the problem. The goal of the purveyors of the pink slime propaganda isn't simply to persuade consumers to choose alternative products, but to build the sentiment that will support coercive government intervention in the market place. (as has happened in other states with laws regarding 'child labor', ‘dust’ regulation, 'CDL  requirements for operating farm machinery', 'battery cages' in egg  production, 'gestation crates' in pork production, fat taxes, sugar taxes, salt  taxes, hormones, antibiotics, biotechnology...pick your technology,  ingredient, and regulation).
 
From fiction to reality, biotechnology, 'pink slime', pharmaceuticals, modern  food supply chains and processing, (name your villain) are all contemporary  analogs to 'Rearden Metal' from the book Atlas Shrugged. When Dagney had to go out on her own and  start the 'John Galt Line' it was in fact largely in part a response to the loss in demand as a result of the dynamics of public opinion regarding Rearden Metal, penalized for being virtue. Given the negative public perception and the heavy burden of the regulatory environment for the railroads, Taggert Transcontinental stock was plummeting.
 
Recognizing this dynamic between public opinion, market forces, and the regulatory apparatus and making it known is essential to the  perpetuation of a free society. As Don Boudreaux of George Mason  University states so well:
 
"What matters mostly – overwhelmingly – is the climate of opinion. And so affecting the climate of opinion for the better seems to me to be, by far, the only long-term means of ensuring the stability of a free society."
 
But, can we really affect public opinion for the better? Are people obstinate and irrational in their views?  Is evidence irrelevant?
 
 "Reason, my dear fellow is the most naive of all superstitions...logic is a primitive vulgarity" -Dr. Pritchett, Atlas Shrugged.
 
 Is evidence always and everywhere irrelevant, or is it just minimized by propaganda and undervalued in general?  Does the assumption of perfectly rational behavior have to hold to make these arguments, or to approach these issues utilizing the analytical way of thinking that economics teaches?  Should we just assume that all behavior is mindless and throw in the towel?  That would certainly relieve many of us a lot of stress and of course, that's what the interventionists like Dr. Pritchett in Atlas Shrugged wanted people to think. They desire a public that has grown disdainful of facts and evidence, looking to intellectuals and politicians to make things right.
 
But, as Steve Horowitz points out in his textbook 'Lessons for the Young Economist':
 
"When we look at the world and try to make some sense of it, one of the most basic and crucial distinctions we all make—usually without even realizing it—is the difference between purposeful action versus mindless behavior...The lessons in this book apply to purposeful actions performed by
conscious people who have goals in mind."
 
As Dr. Horowitz goes on to explain, even if people often 'miscalculate' or aren't "perfectly rational people" the logic of economic thinking holds. As Economist Peter Boettke states:
 
"The great free market economic thinkers from Adam Smith to F. A. Hayek never argued that individuals were hyper-rational actors possessed with full and complete information, operating in perfectly competitive markets.... Efficient markets are an outcome of a process of discovery, learning, and adjustment, not an assumption going into the analysis."
 
And in fact, blogs, even 'micro bloggers' with just a few thousand imprints or less, all have a role to play in adding to this pool of knowledge. Even if they are preaching to the choir (i.e. read mostly by like minded individuals) they provide an arsenal of ideas that help everyone to better structure their thoughts, and share them with others, and occasionally someone that may actually change their mind.  Not everyone is a general like Bodreaux and Roberts at Cafe Hayek,  but given this war of ideas and the role they play in a free society, every soldier counts. Post by post, line by line. While its origins are disputed, the quote often attributed to Thomas Jefferson is no less true:

"The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt."

 

Finely Textured Beef: What is seen and unseen

Apr 21, 2012

"But you don't want to have public opinion against you. Public opinion, you know, it can mean a lot."
"...I saw the whole industrial establishment of the world...all of it was run, not by bankers and boards of directors...all of it was run by any unshaved humanitarian in any basement beer joint, by any face pudgy with malice, who preached that virtue must be penalized for being virtue."
- Atlas Shrugged.

"Cargill cuts 'pink slime' output, sees hamburger price rise' (Reuters)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/28/us-food-slime-idUSBRE82R1LP20120328

Consumers say they want healthy sustainable food. They want it to be safe. They want it to be affordable. The market delivered with finely textured lean beef. Now in a classic illustration of group think, lead by celebrities, anti-farm activists, and advocates of big government, these same producers are being punished for catering to the expressed desires of their harshest critics. Some extremists are even peddling petitions and calling for government bans and regulations to 'label' or remove this product from stores and schools. Companies are shutting down operations and laying people off. Beef prices are taking a hit.

This summer, many of these same people will go to their farmer's market and feel good about themselves for doing their part to support local farmers, their community, and perhaps even bettering the environment. Certainly a laudable gesture. That is what is seen.

What remains unseen (to many at least) is the negative impact that this self-righteous orthorexic food fetish condeming so called pink slime will have on the rest of us. Particularly what is unseen is the loss of value that thousands of family farmers and local producers will have to absorb, while continiung to strive to feed the rest of us in a manner that modern agriculture makes efficient and sustainable.

 

Why Occupy Wall Street Will Keep Up (the Wrong?) Fight

Nov 26, 2011

 

By Matt Bogard
 
Previously I had said "Time will tell if those occupying Wall Street calling for ending the Fed and crony capitalism are the true voice of the movement, or if they will ultimately find themselves tools for more interventionism through a progressive policy agenda." With a recent article in the Washington Post, I think I’m starting to piece together an answer, at least from one protester.
 
 
Take, for instance, the following quote:

"Only a soft regime change can end the pervasive corruption at the heart of our political system, in which corporate money wins elections, drafts laws and trumps citizen desires."
 
How is it that corporate money wins elections, drafts laws, and trumps citizen desires? I've discussed previously the issue of disproportionate political power and abuse as it relates to extreme wealth and corporate influence. In short, it's the nature of unrestrained democracy, not unrestrained capitalism. By granting government powers beyond those specifically enumerated in the Constitution, progressive policies have represented bounty to be won by whoever can exert the most political muscle, as put by Public Choice economist Dennis Mueller. If we are going to be concerned with the outlier that is the 1% of wealthiest Americans, our concern should be with those that achieved their wealth via progressive coercive political means as opposed to those that achieved it through socially cooperative means enriching the lives of multitudes. The ignorant, shortsighted, prejudiced view of the 1% as being a homogenous group of thieves and manipulators is not enlightening.
 
The writer goes on:
 
"Only the plural voices of everyday Americans, the 99 percent, have the capacity to wake up the 1 percent to their greedy, self-serving ways, and to dismantle the global casino in which $1.3 trillion worth of derivatives, credit default swaps and other financial instruments slosh around every day without a hint of concern or regard for the millions of lives that such speculation can destroy.…And we will see clearly articulated demands emerging, among them…a move toward a 'true cost' market regime in which the price of every product reflects the ecological cost of its production, distribution and use; and with a bit of luck, perhaps even the birth of a new, left-right hybrid political party that moves America beyond the Coke vs. Pepsi choices of the past."
 
While financial instruments may be difficult to understand, they are not bets made at the track or in a casino, they are tools for managing risk and directing capital to fill the most urgent needs of society based on the knowledge and preferences of multitudes of individuals, all giving their input via the price system. While not perfect, as the great economist Frederick Hayek put it, I would prefer imperfect prices over the pretense of knowledge. It was through the pretense of knowledge and the Federal Reserve’s actions in the social planning of money, interest and housing ("without a hint of concern or regard for the millions of lives that such speculation can destroy") that we got the financial crisis and the current recession.
 
The idea of a "'true cost' market regime" is an even more futile exercise in the pretense of knowledge. As I mentioned in a previous article, when we as a society fail to have the knowledge to determine the correct price and quantity of ice cream for our community or nation, how can we determine the correct price or quantity of carbon (or the ecological cost of any good, for that matter)? Aren’t those sorts of calculations what would be necessary to implement a "‘true cost’ market regime"? The command and control structure necessary to implement this ("without a hint of concern or regard for the millions of lives that such speculation can destroy") would be demeaning to the millions in the 99% and empowering to the wealthiest and politically connected in the 1%. We’ve seen the effects of economics of scale in compliance in agriculture before. We saw how empowering the Waxman-Markey attempt to ecologically price carbon was to the world's largest corporations.
 
I think through all of their rhetoric and their own model of direct democracy, many of the OWS crowd may confuse the virtues of the market with democracy. Unfortunately, people think that there is something mystical and blessed about the end result of tallying votes. They fail to see how arbitrary this can be, and how poorly voting can work as a means to express and represent individual preferences about very specific issues that deal with the minute details of everyday life and work. They confuse voting with the role and social function of the price system. What we need isn’t more democracy, or fascist price-fixing regimes. What we actually need is more of the Coke vs. Pepsi choices of the past. I know the author was probably analogizing the little difference between political parties, but Coke vs. Pepsi is a great example of how empowering the price system is compared to the democratic decision making by two barely indistinguishable parties. Anyone recall how empowering markets were to the 99% with regard to New Coke? How about more recently Netflix’s change in pricing structure? Agvocates are well aware of how empowering markets and social media were when it came to the corporate policies of Yellowtail and Pilot Travel Centers. Could you imagine having to implement these types of changes and  getting these responses through our political system or any number of political parties? Of course not. Voting  is too blunt an instrument to do this.When we try to democratize these types of choices, votes are not empowering tools of democracy for the masses, they are empowering instruments for the politically connected 1%.  The answer isn't more voting or additional choices in political parties. The answer is, as our founders put it, a republic if we can keep it, restrained from interfering with the minute details and choices of our everyday lives.
 
So I conclude by asking, is the OWS movement really about empowering the masses, or will they ultimately find themselves tools for more interventionism through a progressive policy agenda? If the movement is more concerned about wealth redistribution and things like "‘true cost’ market regimes," they are fighting the wrong fight.

 

Occupy Wall Street: Hitching a Ride on the Tea Party Express?

Oct 08, 2011

By Matt Bogard


The #occupywallstreet movement seems to be a pretty diverse group. From ‘trolling’ the occupywallstreet forums , there seems to be a big concern with corporatism, what economists would consider rent seeking- which is using the political apparatus to gain special favors (in terms of taxes, subsidies, or regulations) . There are also many concerned about the role of the Federal Reserve, which through the social planning of money and interest played a significant role in the financial crisis . And of course, many are rightfully upset over the bailouts. On most of these issues, if they are serious about their concerns, they find themselves practically standing hand-to-hand with the Tea Party. Then, on occasion you will find some listing demands for things like living wages, tariffs, and increased regulation, a Buffet style tax and other progressive end policies. So, you’ve got people within the same movement coming from entirely polar extremes, all converging on Wall-Street with a beef.  While nothing seems official, you can’t help but notice two major themes- 1) a call for getting the money out of politics and 2) class warfare between the top 1% (in income or wealth) and the other 99%. 
 
Last week, I presented an exhaustive look at the facts related to the distribution of income and taxes paid by the highest income earners. The facts showed that that the wealthy actually do pay more in taxes than their ‘secretaries’ and that the income gains over the last few decades have not gone mostly to the rich. (I have actually added even more to the evidence on my principles of economics blog here). But what about the top 1%?
 
First off, the top concern should not be the disparity of income or wealth in any society, but the process that generates that outcome. As the data I presented last week indicates, the process in the U.S. allows lots of movement and economic mobility.  In fact, a free society that produces unequal shares of income and wealth (including people like Bill Gates, the late Steve Jobs, and the numerous unspoken entrepreneurs) is the kind of society able to deliver a lifestyle and opportunities to the masses.
 
But, if class warfare is the end in itself, it is interesting to ask, just how much wealth do the top 1% of wealthiest Americans control? Depending on your source you can get different results. According to one source, the top 1 % of Americans (in terms of wealth)  ‘control’ about 20-25% of the nation’s wealth. Another source indicates that they ‘control’ closer to 40%.   But, again, when we look back over the last century, we don’t observe any drastic increase in the concentration of wealth. Whatever the correct number, the idea that the wealthiest Americans control any proportion of the nations wealth is a bit elusive. It might be better to state that the top 1% of wealthiest Americans are connected to 40% of the nations wealth. 
 
Of course, if we were talking about King Henry the VIII, or Adolph Hitler, or Joseph Stalin, we might correctly say that these people controlled vast amounts of resources vital to the well being of millions of their citizens. However, if you are a wealthy individual that owns as part of your vast wealth a large amount of Netfilix’ stock, what would you say you are in control of? Given the recent drastic plunge in its value, wouldn’t you say that although you were connected to that vast wealth, it is subject to the individual decisions of multitudes of consumers and other investors? The simple fact is, no matter what the asset, owning an asset (be it stocks, collectible sports cars, beach homes, yachts, or Scrooge McDuck’s Money Bin) entails opportunity costs.  Those opportunity costs arise as a direct result of other people’s desires and interest in owning or having access to those resources.  Maybe you own a ton of real estate in shopping centers. That is meaningful only as long as the rest of society values shopping centers. (Again, just ask Coca Cola when they changed their formula, Netflix when they changed their pricing structure, or Blockbuster before them). This is in fact why we have so much mobility in the income and wealth distribution as shown in the data! As my economics professor taught long ago, we the poor college students, were able to outbid wealthy people every day in the ordinary transactions of buying and selling.  One of the most basic principles of economics is that prices force you to consider the impacts of your choices on others. When it comes to allocating resources in society, the market is the great equalizer. Appealing to class warfare by dividing society into fractions of 1 & 99 really gets us nowhere.
 
Of course, we may agree that when the top 1% (along with corporations and special interests) use their wealth to influence politics the free society paradigm breaks down. In fact, many of the protestors on Wall Street agree with the idea that ‘a democratic government derives its just power from the people… and that no true democracy is attainable when the process is determined by economic power. ‘ 
 
As public choice economist Dennis Mueller is quoted in the article Public Choice Revolution:
 
"Interest groups will engage in what public choice theorists call "rent seeking," i.e., the search for redistributive benefits at the expense of others. The larger the state and the more benefits it can confer, the more rent-seeking will occur. The entire federal budget...can be viewed as a gigantic rent up for grabs for those who can exert the most political muscle."
 
 Our founders were well aware of these issues as stated in Federalist #10:
 
"From the protection of different and unequal faculties of acquiring property, the possession of different degrees and kinds of property immediately results; and from the influence of these on the sentiments and views of the respective proprietors, ensues a division of the society into different interests and parties."
 
-like the 1% and the 99%?
 
In Federalist #10 they also warned us about the populist appeals and uprisings that may result, but proposed a solution:
 
"A rage for paper money, for an abolition of debts, for an equal division of property, or for any other improper or wicked project…we behold a republican remedy for the diseases most incident to republican government."
 
But the solution is not more government control through regulation of redistributive Buffet taxes. The remedy proposed by the founders is embodied in a constitution, with specifically enumerated powers, not true democracy as quoted by the occupiers on Wall Street. If we look at the many powers of government today, how many were transfers of power away from the people by avoiding the amendment process or via crazy court decisions (like Helvering vs. Davis or  Wickard v. Filburn)  The purpose of the constitution was to ensure that the government did very little without the consent of the governed.  For the most part, that was achieved through legislation held in the strict bounds of enumerated powers, with expanded powers of government coming through the amendment process.  This strict adherence to constitutional principles was the foundation for a workable democratic constitutional republic, as stated by Economist Thomas Sowell in  Judicial Activism Reconsidered,

"The federal Constitution is "the supreme law of the land," not because it is more moral than state constitutions or state or federal legislative enactments, but because it represents a larger and more enduring majority. Minorities receive their constitutional rights from that enduring majority to which transient majorities bow, not from whatever abstract moral rights are imagined to exist as a brooding omnipresence in the sky."
 
Democracy, limited by strict adherence to constitutional principles meant that government would have few powers and resources to spend on corporate interests, or progressive objects of benevolence.   As Thomas Jefferson stated:
 
"in questions of power then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the constitution"
 
 If the occupiers are seriously concerned about money in politics, then, once again, they should find themselves in lockstep with the Tea Party in calling for a return to constitutional principles and limited government.  Time will tell if those occupying Wall Street calling for ending the Fed and crony capitalism are the true voice of the movement, or if they will ultimately find themselves tools for more interventionism through a progressive policy agenda.
 
 

The Buffet Tax Deception

Sep 24, 2011

By Matt Bogard

"It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a 'dismal science.' But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance." - Murray Rothbard Making Economic Sense (1995)
 
Should we really be thinking about making national tax policies based on the single random anecdotal observation of a celebrity businessman? Recently there has been a lot of talk from the media, politicians, and other commentators about a ‘Buffet Tax’ to ensure that billionaires pay their fair share of taxes. The battle cry comes from comments by very successful businessman and investor Warren Buffet, who claims that his secretary pays more in taxes (as a percent of income) than he does. There are also claims that income for middle Americans has stagnated, while the wealthiest Americans have enjoyed most of the gains in income growth over the last decade. This is a long post, but the short of it is that these claims may sound good politically, and make great headlines for the media, but they don’t stand squarely with the facts.
 
Let’s look at the first claim. Do billionaires really pay less in taxes as a percent of income than their secretaries? 
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/88xx/doc8885/EffectiveTaxRates.shtml Historical Effective Federal Tax Rates: 1979 to 2005 Congressional Budget Office
 
Since these rates have not changed in the last 5 years, these numbers are still relevant, and show that historically the rich (like Warren Buffet) have always paid more. In fact, when it comes to ‘fairness’, the U.S. has one of the most progressive (meaning the rich pay more) tax systems in the world (see the data here at the Tax Foundation). Sure it is possible that with the correct shelters/loopholes/wealth management, a wealthy person like Buffet could actually end up paying lower overall rates than their secretary. However, what the data shows is that overall, on average, the rich do pay more, with only a few rare and random cases like Buffet paying rates similar to or less than working class Americans. This brings up many questions. Why make major changes in the tax code that will affect millions to address the very few Warren Buffets of the world? Some would say to be ‘fair’ but as noted above, we already lead the world in terms of tax fairness based on income and the rich are already paying more. In terms of all income taxes collected by government, the wealthiest Americans pay most of the taxes.
 
The top 10% of earners make up about 10% of all households earn about 40% of all income, but pay 55% of all taxes (way more than their proportional share of income). The top 1% of earners make up only about 1% of households, earn about 18% of all income, but pay almost 30% of all taxes, again more than their share of national income.

 

Source: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/88xx/doc8885/EffectiveTaxRates.shtml Historical Effective Federal Tax Rates: 1979 to 2005 Congressional Budget Office
 
 
No matter how you slice the data, there is no way you can claim that the rich are not paying ‘their fair share’ of taxes. (Note this is even after the 2001 & 2003 tax cuts)
 
Another myth related to this, is that income for middle Americans has stagnated, while the wealthiest Americans have enjoyed most of the gains in income growth over the last decade. Again, this is not supported by the data. The first problem is that commentators and politicians with axes to grind typically refer to the ‘median household income’ to represent ‘middle class.’   While using the median is statistically more robust (less biased) than just the average when it comes to skewed income data, using median household income is still inappropriate. As economists Thomas Sowell and Russ Roberts explain clearly here (video) and here, households have changed tremendously over time, and really aren’t comparable over time. But there are even more reasons why median household income can be misleading.  Researcher Steve Conover points out in a recent article at the American Enterprise Institute’s American magazine, just looking at the median to define middle class is a very restrictive definition. After assembling data on income over the last decade based on data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conover developed several definitions of ‘middle class.’ No matter how many different ways we could define ‘middle class’ when we actually look at data on income gains over the last few years, we find in fact that middle class income earners gained much more than the top 20% of earners, while the top 5% actually saw losses.
 

Source: The Myth of Middle-Class Stagnation, Steve Conover

 

Of course, if we are concerned about the distribution of income in society, the important thing isn’t so much who’s gaining in which category, but instead it is how often people move up and improve their standard of living.  After all, the American dream is not based on how much the rich pay in taxes vs the poor, or who gets the biggest piece of the pie. The American dream is about going out and getting your own piece of pie, or in other words, income mobility.  As economist Steve Horowitz explains in this video, even if you insist on looking at ‘median’ income earned by ‘households’ vs. individuals, when we follow these people over time we see lots of income mobility as they move from one part of the income distribution to another.  The data shows that income mobility in the U.S. has been very robust.  As reported in the U.S. Treasury report Income Mobility in the U.S. from 1996 to 2005:

 

"Economic growth resulted in rising incomes for most taxpayers over the period from 1996 to 2005. Median incomes of all taxpayers increased by 24 percent after adjusting for inflation. The real incomes of two-thirds of all taxpayers increased over this period. In addition, the median incomes of those initially in the lower income groups increased more than the median incomes of those initially in the higher income groups. The degree of mobility in the overall population and movement out of the bottom quintile in this study are similar to the findings of prior research on income mobility."

 

So, we’ve debunked the myth that the wealthiest Americans aren’t paying there fair share, we’ve shown that middle class Americans have received significant gains in income over the last decade, and that income mobility in the U.S. is a reality. What other excuses can we/they come up with to raise taxes? One might claim that this is necessary to increase revenues, or reduce the budget deficit. In a previous post I’ve already shown how revenues actually increased while the budget deficit drastically dropped after the Bush tax cuts.  Quite a bit of additional research actually shows that higher income individuals are extremely sensitive to tax increases, and that tax increases can contribute to decreased job creation and investment. 

 

Were it not for the recession, the data shows that the middle class and the American dream was thriving. Instead of focusing on class warfare inspired non-issues (at least when it comes to real data), the media, commentators and our law makers should focus on the real issues at hand, chiefly the regulatory climate and the uncertainty  (as mentioned last month) that it is creating.  Bad government policies, interventons, and regulations created the financial crisis which lead to the recession, and just as in the Great Depression, regulatory uncertainty is currently impeding the turnaround. Besides being based on bad evidence and false perceptions, talk about a ‘Buffet’ tax rule only adds to the cloud of uncertainty keeping us in the current economic rut.

 

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