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July 2013 Archive for Market Watch

RSS By: Alan Brugler, AgWeb.com

Alan Brugler is the President of Brugler Marketing & Management, and the primary analyst and advisor.

Implosion

Jul 26, 2013

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

July 26, 2013

Implosion

 

The web site FreeDictionary.com defines an implosion as:

1. A violent collapse inward, as of a highly evacuated glass vessel.

2. Violent compression.

 

Corn and soybean basis imploded this week, and the spot futures contracts did as well. Such a collapse happens every time we have an inverse coming into a year with larger crops. The timing is almost always a surprise, and sometimes the move is violent. For beans, the break was violent because the short squeezes in May and July futures had provided a road map of higher prices due to zero expected delivery notices. There are still no old crop deliveries expected, so the squeeze could still unfold in August. In the short run, meal bids collapsed and put a lot of pressure on crush margins. Once spot futures started to break, the big specs headed for the exit and couldn’t all get out gracefully. It was a "get me out" situation driven by the margin clerks. They may have been given extra incentive by the pending expiration of their protective options positions, which happened on July 26, and the upcoming end of month asset allocation adjustments. Then the merchandisers pulled cash soybean bids or rolled them to November in an attempt to avoid the volatility. Producer sales of old beans were not the main factor in the drop. 

 

September corn futures were down 52 cents per bushel, or 9.6% in a single week. December was better, but still lost 24 ¾ cents as weather conditions and forecasts improved at a time that much of the crop is pollinating. Weekly ethanol production dropped off by 5,000 bpd, while ethanol imports were large at 41,000 bpd as Brazil had more early ethanol production due to weather that was not favorable for sugar. Ethanol stocks rose again as combined production and imports were larger than domestic offtake. RIN values dropped back below $1. Weekly export sales were net negative for old crop, with more cancellations than sales. New crop bookings were over a half million metric tonnes. China has also been aggressively buying DDGs from the US, confirming 300,000 MT in the past week or so.

 

Nearby August soybeans plunged $1.41 per bushel for the week, a 9.5% decline.  Soy oil was only down 4.2%, which is the only reason soybeans weren’t down as much as soybean meal. The latter sank 10.8% in a single week. Soybean commitments YTD are 102% of the USDA forecast for the year ending August 31. Soybean meal commitments are 102% of the forecast as well.

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

07/05/13

07/12/13

07/19/13

07/26/13

Change

% Change

Sep

Corn

$5.26

$5.45

$5.44

$4.92

($0.52)

-9.56%

Sep

CBOT Wheat

$6.60

$6.81

$6.65

$6.50

($0.14)

-2.14%

Sep

KCBT Wheat

$6.8575

$7.085

$7.053

$6.915

($0.14)

-1.95%

Sep

MGEX Wheat

$7.64

$7.67

$7.51

$7.37

($0.14)

-1.87%

Aug

Soybeans

$14.32

$14.29

$14.91

$13.50

($1.41)

-9.46%

Aug

Soybean Meal

$428.60

$442.90

$482.40

$430.30

($52.10)

-10.80%

Aug

Soybean Oil

$47.11

$46.22

$45.50

$43.58

($1.92)

-4.22%

Aug

Live Cattle

$121.95

$121.85

$121.98

$121.80

($0.18)

-0.14%

Aug

Feeder Cattle

$151.80

$150.13

$152.25

$152.60

$0.35

0.23%

Aug

Lean Hogs

$97.75

$94.90

$96.48

$97.78

$1.30

1.35%

Oct

Cotton

$86.43

$85.13

$86.52

$85.37

($1.15)

-1.33%

Sep

Oats

$3.60

$3.52

$3.55

$3.31

($0.24)

-6.69%

Sep

Rice

$15.18

$15.50

$15.17

$15.89

$0.72

4.71%

 

Wheat futures were almost a bastion of strength compared to the corn and beans. Chicago was down 2.14%, while KC was off 1.95% and MPLS was down 1.87%. Wheat benefitted from tightening global stocks forecasts, and also from the fact that winter wheat harvest is just about over and the hedge pressure is gone. Egypt found credit to buy 240,000 MT of wheat for early September shipment. None was US origin due to US prices being too high. USDA reported weekly export sales last week were 661,400 MT. Outstanding export commitments are now 42% of the USDA forecast for the year vs. the 5 year average of 32% for this date. Total commitments are 45% larger than they were on this date in 2012. We are off to a good start.  US spring wheat condition ratings continue to point to trendline or higher yields, despite the late planting of the crop.

Cotton futures were down 1.33% this past week. Weekly export sales totaled 130,100 running bales (RB) of upland and 7,400 RB of pima. Cotton export sales commitments are 105% of the USDA forecast for the year. They would typically be 111% with only 2 weeks left in the marketing year. Texas and the Southeast have been wetter recently, but the forecasts call for much of Texas to go back to the dry side and up to one third of the Texas acreage is still at risk of abandonment if moisture conditions do not improve.

Cattle futures were down 18 cents after being up 13 cents last week and down 10 the week before that. This is the poster child for a sideways market! Of course that is expected to change at some point! Feeders were up 0.23%. Choice beef prices are still reverting to the mean after their record levels in May. Wholesale beef prices were lower this past week, with Choice down 1.1% and Select down 0.8% on a Friday/Friday basis. USDA reported weekly beef export sales were 14,900 MT vs. 15,200 MT the prior week. Weekly beef production was up down 1.6% from the previous week and 1.5% larger than the same week in 2012. Slaughter was 1.1% larger than year ago. YTD beef production is still 0.8% below last year.

 

Hog futures were up 1.35% for the week.  The estimated weekly slaughter is 1.9882 million head. That was down 0.9% from last week, and 1.1% smaller than the same week in 2012. Pork production YTD is down only 0.3%. The pork carcass cutout value gained 0.58% this week. Pork belly quotes were up more than 5% for the week. USDA weekly export sales report improved to 6,800 MT vs. 4,100 MT from the prior week. Cash hogs were a little higher in the IA/MN market on Friday, but weaker in the eastern Corn Belt.

 

Market Watch

 

Grain traders will begin the week adjusting to life without August grain options to help buffer futures positions. Those expired on Friday. USDA will issue the usual weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. The Export Sales report will be on Thursday morning. Friday will mark the expiration of the August live cattle options. Delivery notices for August soy complex futures will be out on Wednesday. Funds with big gains on short positions may be lightening positions on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday as we come into month end. Some might also have a few longs left to dump that they don’t want to admit owning after the implosion this past week.

 

Visit our Brugler web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.

 

Attend the Brugler Marketing Summer Seminar in Richmond, Indiana on July 29-30. See the agenda and registration info on our web site.   

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.               

 

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

Waiting and Watching

Jul 19, 2013

 

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

July 19, 2013 

Waiting and Watching

September corn futures were down 1 cent per bushel for the week. December didn’t fare as well, down 8 /12 cents as weather patterns and forecasts were sufficiently varied to weaken arguments for major yield losses. Weekly ethanol production dropped off by 5,000 bpd, while ethanol imports rose to 50,000 bpd as Brazil had more early ethanol production due to weather that was not favorable for sugar. Ethanol stocks rose. Weekly export sales also jumped to more than 1.74 MMT, aided by more than 1.2 MMT of new crop corn sold to China. China has also been aggressively buying DDGs from the US. US corn export commitments are now 105% of the amount needed to hit the USDA forecast for the year, which is running ahead of the 5 year average pace of 102%.

Nearby August soybeans gained 62 cents per bushel for the week.  Futures are trying to close the expiration gap left by the July contract, with similar old crop fundamentals going into the August delivery period. November futures were up sharply on Monday and Tuesday following the Three Line Strike candlestick formation the week before. Soybean export commitments are at 102% of the USDA projection for the marketing year vs. the average pace of 103% for this date. Meal bookings are at 100% of the more recent USDA export forecast, a little ahead of the 97% average for this date.

KC Wheat futures ground another 3 cents lower this week. Chicago was the beneficiary of some large export sales to China, but futures were 17 cents lower. Chicago was pressured by competition from new crop harvests in Europe, Russia and Ukraine. Egypt got organized enough to buy 300,000 MT of wheat for late August shipment, but it came from Romania, Russia and Ukraine. USDA reported weekly export sales last week were 996,600 MT. Outstanding export commitments are now 40% of the USDA forecast for the year vs. the 5 year average of 30% for this date. We are off to a good start.  

Cotton futures gained 1.7% for the week. USDA raised projected old crop ending stocks to 3.9 million bales from 3.6 million earlier in the month. Weekly export sales for upland were 90,500 RB. Pima sales were 4,800 RB. Cotton export sales commitments are 105% of the USDA forecast for the year. They would typically be 111% with only 3 weeks left in the marketing year. Texas and the Southeast have been wetter recently, but the forecasts call for much of Texas to go back to the dry side between now and month end.

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

06/28/13

07/05/13

07/12/13

07/19/13

Change

% Change

Sep

Corn

$5.47

$5.26

$5.45

$5.44

($0.01)

-0.26%

Sep

CBOT Wheat

$6.58

$6.60

$6.81

$6.65

($0.17)

-2.42%

Sep

KCBT Wheat

$6.7625

$6.858

$7.085

$7.053

($0.03)

-0.46%

Sep

MGEX Wheat

$7.75

$7.64

$7.67

$7.51

($0.16)

-2.09%

Aug

Soybeans

$14.31

$14.32

$14.29

$14.91

$0.62

4.32%

Aug

Soybean Meal

$434.90

$428.60

$442.90

$482.40

$39.50

8.92%

Aug

Soybean Oil

$46.29

$47.11

$46.22

$45.50

($0.72)

-1.56%

Aug

Live Cattle

$122.03

$121.95

$121.85

$121.98

$0.13

0.10%

Aug

Feeder Cattle

$149.45

$151.80

$150.13

$152.25

$2.13

1.42%

Aug

Lean Hogs

$97.45

$97.75

$94.90

$96.48

$1.57

1.66%

Oct

Cotton

$85.61

$86.43

$85.13

$86.52

$1.39

1.63%

Sep

Oats

$3.66

$3.60

$3.52

$3.55

$0.03

0.78%

Sep

Rice

$15.74

$15.18

$15.50

$15.17

($0.33)

-2.13%


Cattle futures were up 13 cents this week, offsetting a 10 cent loss the week before.  Feeders were up $2.13, or 1.4%. Choice beef prices are still reverting to the mean after their record levels in May. Wholesale beef prices were mixed this past week, with Choice down 1.2% and Select up 0.3% on a Friday/Friday basis. USDA reported weekly beef export sales rose to 15,200 MT vs. 14,600 MT the prior week. Weekly beef production was up 1.9% from the previous week, and 0.5% larger than the same week in 2012. YTD beef production is still 0.9% below last year. Estimated carcass weights are running 4-5 pounds above year ago. The USDA Cattle on Feed report on Friday night showed July 1 numbers down 3.2% from year ago. June marketings were larger than expected at 96.4% of year ago, but placements were 95.4% of last year and didn’t offset the marketings.

Hog futures were up 1.66% for the week.  The Estimated weekly slaughter was 2.007 million head. That was down 1.5% from last week, but 2.3% larger than the same week in 2012. Pork production YTD is now down only 0.3%. The pork carcass cutout value lost 2.5% this week after being down 4.25% the previous week. Cash hog prices on Friday afternoon were sharply higher in the west but lower in the east. The IA/MN average was up $1.65.  The WCB average was down $1.55 and the ECB was 11 cents lower. USDA weekly export sales report slowed to 4,100 MT from 6,400 MT the prior week.

Market Watch

Cattle traders will begin the week reacting to the Friday night Cattle on Feed report. They will also get the monthly USDA Cold Storage report data on Monday evening. USDA will issue the usual weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday. Export Sales report on Thursday morning. Friday will mark the expiration of the August grain options.

Visit our Brugler web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses. 

Attend the Brugler Marketing Summer Seminars on July 24-25 in Omaha and July 29-30 in Richmond, IN. See the agendas on our web site.    

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.               

 

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

 

Hodgepodge

Jul 12, 2013

Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler

July 12, 2013

Hodgepodge

 

A hodgepodge is a jumbled up mixture, and that pretty much fits the weather forecasts and crop condition reports coming across our desk. It’s fairly typical for mid-July, with one of my favorite sayings being " You can get any weather forecast you want to pay for."  With money on the line, you were told it was too wet or too dry or too hot or too cool for somebody, in some time frame between now and November. The USDA corn and soybean crop condition ratings were above average for early July, while wheat ratings were, you guessed it, a hodgepodge of good and not so good.  

July Corn futures continued their bullish ways, up 17 cents per bushel for the week as they went off the board. They did give up 14 ½ cents on the last day as some very patient longs took profits ahead of expiration. December futures were up 18 cents despite losing 17 ¾ on Friday.  Weekly ethanol production increased, keeping strong basis bids in place if you are anywhere near an ethanol plant. On Thursday, USDA cut projected old crop ending stocks 40 million bushels, while also increasing expected imports. Weekly export sales also jumped to more than 1.049 MMT for the holiday shortened July 4 week. They will be over 1 MMT again this coming week, since USDA announced a 960,000 MT sale under the daily reporting system on Friday morning. US corn export commitments are now 102% of the amount needed to hit the USDA forecast for the year, which matches with the 5 year average pace.

Nearby July Soybeans lost 25 cents for the week, due to a 38 cent collapse on Friday as the contract expired. July meal futures, on the other hand, were up $9.80 on their last day. That didn’t stop August from plunging $15.10/ton on Friday. November futures were up 29 ¾ cents, with the gain on Monday and Tuesday. Both soybean and soybean meal export commitments are at 102% of the USDA projection for the marketing year. USDA left projected old crop soybean ending stocks UNCH at 125 million bushels in their Thursday WASDE report. They increased their new crop figure from 265 to 295 million bushels, expecting the cash average price to drop below $11 because of the additional supply.

KC Wheat futures shot up 5.4% this week despite a larger than expected USDA HRW production estimate on Thursday. Chicago was the beneficiary of some large export sales to China, but was also pressured by a larger production estimate from USDA. The net gain there was 20 cents per bushel. MPLS gained 4.6% as it chased KC. USDA also reported weekly export sales last week were 1,473,300 MT, almost 40% larger than trade expectations going into the report. Projected global wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 crop were cut 5.37 MMT, and the new crop USDA estimate was down 8.87 MMT from last month. For the 2013/14 marketing year, US HRW ending stocks were put at 209 mbu, HRS ending stocks are estimated to be 181 mbu, and the total ending stocks figure is 576 mbu.

Cotton futures gained 1.7% for the week. USDA raised projected old crop ending stocks to 3.9 million bales from 3.6 million. They left new crop production and consumption unchanged, so the extra 300,000 bales all flowed to higher new crop ending stocks of 2.9 million bales. USDA also increased its projection for 2013/14 world ending stocks by about 2%.  The Indian production estimate was raised from 27 to 28 million 480lb bales.

 

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

06/21/13

06/28/13

07/05/13

07/12/13

Change

% Change

July

Corn

$6.62

$6.79

$6.85

$7.02

$0.17

2.45%

July

CBOT Wheat

$6.98

$6.49

$6.56

$6.76

$0.20

2.97%

July

KCBT Wheat

$7.37

$6.7625

$6.765

$7.128

$0.36

5.36%

July

MGEX Wheat

$8.14

$7.85

$7.61

$7.96

$0.35

4.60%

July

Soybeans

$14.93

$15.65

$15.88

$15.63

($0.25)

-1.56%

July

Soybean Meal

$447.70

$490.30

$489.10

$535.50

$46.40

9.49%

July

Soybean Oil

$48.02

$46.42

$47.23

$46.09

($1.14)

-2.41%

Aug

Live Cattle

$121.60

$122.03

$121.95

$121.85

($0.10)

-0.08%

Aug

Feeder Cattle

$146.93

$149.45

$151.80

$150.13

($1.68)

-1.10%

July

Lean Hogs

$99.75

$101.28

$102.35

$102.10

($0.25)

-0.24%

July

Cotton

$85.32

$82.71

$83.68

$85.13

$1.45

1.73%

July

Oats

$3.96

$4.01

$3.99

$3.90

($0.09)

-2.32%

July

Rice

$15.91

$15.74

$15.18

$15.50

$0.32

2.14%


Cattle futures were off 10 cents this week.  Feeders lost $1.68 or 1.1%. Choice beef prices are still reverting to the mean after their record levels in May. Wholesale beef prices were lower this past week, with Choice down 2.4%% and Select down 2.2% on a Friday/Friday basis. We did get some evidence that large export sales to Japan during May drove much of the spike to record highs in the Choice that month.  USDA reported weekly beef export sales through July 4 were 14,600 MT, which is 17.7% more than last week.  Weekly beef production jumped 14.8% from the holiday suppressed prior week, but output was still down 0.3% from the same week in 2012. YTD beef production is still 0.9% below last year.

Hog futures were down 25 cents for the week in the expiring July contract, supported by their discount to the CME Index. August futures were $2.85 lower. The USDA weekly export sales report slowed to 6,400 MT from 10,000 MT the prior week. Estimated weekly slaughter was 2.038 million head. That was up 13.9% from the holiday week, and 4% larger than the same week in 2012. Pork production YTD is now down only 0.4%. The pork carcass cutout value lost 4.25% this week after being down 3.61% the previous week. Pork loins and pork butts were hit the hardest. Cash hog prices on Friday afternoon were sharply higher in the west but lower in the east. The IA/MN average was up $2.55.  The WCB average jumped $3.09 and the ECB was 88 cents lower.

Market Watch

Traders will start the week with the monthly NOPA crush report on Monday morning. Trade estimates appear to be in the 115-120 million bushel range. Also on Monday, USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections report and the Crop Progress report. There is some sentiment for a decline in the weekly crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans, due to drier and hotter weather (and a seasonal tendency for the ratings to decline each week into the end of August.  USDA will issue the usual weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. The main monthly reports will be Cattle on Feed and Milk Production on Friday afternoon. Friday will also mark expiration of the monthly equity futures options.

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.               

 

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

A Few Boats Are Floating

Jul 05, 2013

 Brugler

Market Watch with Alan Brugler and Ryan Palmer

July 5, 2013

A Few Boats Are Floating

 

There is a saying that "a rising tide floats all boats". If this is a rising tide for commodity markets, more than a few of the boats have leaks. For corn and wheat, Shakespeare may be more appropriate: "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries." The CRB index, a broad measure of a basket of commodity futures prices in dollars, dipped below the low seen in June 2012 last week, but bounced this week. The boats that are floating are crude oil and hogs.  

 

July Corn futures continued their bullish ways, up 5 cents per bushel this week. Such was not the case for December futures, which lost 19 ¾ cents for the week.  Western Corn Belt stocks on June 1 were the tightest since 1996, also the case for Eastern Corn Belt (OH, IN,IL) states. This should continue to be supportive to old crop cash prices, with basis doing most of the work. July futures are buoyed by a lack of corn in delivery position, forcing shorts to buy their way out of the contract. Weekly export sales announced this morning totaled a better than expected 233,100 MT of old crop and 81,400 MT of new crop. USDA also announced 120,000 MT of new crop sold to "unknown" on Friday under the daily reporting system.

 

Nearby July Soybeans gained 81 cents per bushel this week. Old crop stocks are tight, and the shorts remember the delivery squeeze in May. They are buying their way out. There are currently no bushels registered for delivery against July. USDA reported 120,600 MT of old crop export sales for the last week of June, a slightly bullish input. Strong soybean meal export sales continue, with old crop bookings of 116,300 MT in the latest weekly report. Both soybean and soybean meal export commitments are at 102% of the USDA projection for the marketing year. November soybean futures lost 23¾ cents for the week, with ideas that USDA will show improved crop condition ratings on Monday.  With wet conditions slowing SRW harvest, there are some questions about whether the expected record number of double crop soybean acres will be planted.

 

KC Wheat futures were nearly dead even to last week, gaining a mere ¼ cent.  Chicago wheat gained 7 cents, but Minneapolis lost 24 cents, or just over 3%. Weekly export sales were a solid 593,000 MT in the Friday morning report, including 239,300 MT sold to China. China also bought 360,000 MT mid-week, which will be reported in next weeks’ Export Sales report. USDA reported another 120,000 MT on Friday morning under the daily reporting system. A Memphis based consulting firm lowered projected All Wheat and Winter Wheat production estimates, projecting that HRW production will be about 50 million bushels smaller than the June USDA estimate while SRW production will likely be larger in their opinion.

 

Commodity

 

 

 

 

Weekly

Weekly

Month

06/14/13

06/21/13

06/28/13

07/05/13

Change

% Change

July

Corn

$6.55

$6.62

$6.79

$6.85

$0.05

0.81%

July

CBOT Wheat

$6.81

$6.98

$6.49

$6.56

$0.07

1.16%

July

KCBT Wheat

$7.12

$7.37

$6.7625

$6.765

$0.0025

0.04%

July

MGEX Wheat

$8.04

$8.14

$7.85

$7.61

($0.24)

-3.03%

July

Soybeans

$15.17

$14.93

$15.65

$15.88

$0.24

1.50%

July

Soybean Meal

$450.70

$447.70

$490.30

$489.10

($1.20)

-0.24%

July

Soybean Oil

$48.48

$48.02

$46.42

$47.23

$0.81

1.74%

Aug

Live Cattle

$118.33

$121.60

$122.03

$121.95

($0.08)

-0.06%

Aug

Feeder Cattle

$143.40

$146.93

$149.45

$151.80

$2.35

1.57%

July

Lean Hogs

$98.03

$99.75

$101.28

$102.35

$1.08

1.06%

July

Cotton

$91.29

$85.32

$82.71

$83.68

$0.97

1.17%

July

Oats

$4.00

$3.96

$4.01

$3.99

($0.02)

-0.50%

July

Rice

$16.51

$15.91

$15.74

$15.18

($0.57)

-3.59%

 

Cotton futures were 97 points higher in the July contract this week, and the later months did better than that.  December was 102 points higher on the week, and March was 145 points higher.  Net export sales of Upland cotton for last week were a very slow 34,500 RB for 2012/13 and 41,500 RB for 2013/14.  China was in for 8,000 and 5,600 respectively.  Pima sales for 2012/13 were 2,900 RB, and were 1,700 RB for the 2013/14 marketing year. WTI crude topped $102 per barrel on Wednesday due to unrest in Egypt and closed above $103 today.  The dollar took off this morning after a better than expected jobs report, and ended the day 1.238 higher.

 

Cattle futures were off 8 cents this week.  Feeders gained $2.35 or 1.57%.  Choice beef prices are reverting to the mean after their record levels in May. Wholesale beef prices were mixed this past week, with Choice down 0.6% and Select up 0.3% on a Friday/Friday basis. Cash cattle trade was slow all week, with light volume reported at $119 in the South. Weekly slaughter was 559,000 head, up from 575,000 for the same period last year.  Net weekly export sales for 2013 were reported by USDA at 12,400 MT, and weekly export shipments through June 27 were 15,600 MT.

 

Hog futures were $1.08 higher for the week.  That makes it 13 of the past 15 weeks that the front month hog futures posted a weekly gain.  The USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 10,000 MT of pork for 2013, down from 18,000 MT reported last week. Estimated weekly slaughter was 1.795 million head. That was up from the same week last year which had a weekly kill of 1.745 million head.  The pork carcass cutout value lost 3.61% for the week, due in part to a 12.26% drop in bellies and both ribs, loins and picnic cuts losing more than 2%.

 

Market Watch

 

We return back to a "normal" market schedule this week. There are no Fed meetings, and no federal holidays. USDA will release the usual Monday Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports. Weekly Export Sales will be on Thursday morning. The main USDA reports for the week will be on Thursday morning, with Crop Production and the monthly WASDE Supply/Demand estimates. There will be new wheat production numbers, but corn and soybean surveys don’t begin until August. WASDE will change projected production, based on the June 28 acreage update. July grain futures expire on Friday, July 12. The CFTC commitment of traders report that would have been published today, should be available by Monday afternoon.  The Brugler 2013 Marketing Semninar in Omaha is just around the corner on July 24 and 25.

 

There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading.  Such trading is not appropriate for all individuals. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  Comments made in this article are in no way to be seen as an endorsement of futures and options trading. Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this article without written consent of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC is strictly prohibited.  Visit our web site at https://www.bruglermarketing.com or call 402-697-3623 for more information on our consulting and advisory services for farm family enterprises and agribusinesses.               

 

 

Copyright 2013 Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

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