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December 2009 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/30/09

Dec 30, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 12/29/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/30/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 12/30/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 85.35, just .15 from the actual high, and my support was 84.67, the EXACT actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas


86.60

86.00                        Key resistance (near DT line)

--------------85.35     Pivot

84.67 FG

84.32

       

         

Trend                         88.27 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…       Up from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ………Down        

Weekly chart ……..Sideways 

Monthly chart …... Sideways

ATR .80                   Balanced 39%  


February Cattle (elec.) for 12/30/09: 

I continue to say "Major resistance is the long term downtrend line near 86.00. Support is the bracket line (green) near 84.32, and then the gaps at 83.27 and at 82.17".

Bulls will try to overcome the downtrend line and turn the chart friendly.

  Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .07 from the actual high, my support was .05 from the actual low. 

Cattle: Spot on numbers. Same thoughts as before.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/29/09

Dec 29, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 12/28/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/29/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 12/29/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 85.37, just .07 from the actual high, and my support  was 84.75 FG, .05 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

  We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

86.60

86.00                        Key resistance (near DT line)

--------------85.37     Pivot

84.75 FG

84.32

       

         

Trend                         88.32 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....… Sideways from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways 

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .82                    Balanced 69%  




February Cattle (elec.) for 12/29/09: 

I continue to say "Major resistance is the long term downtrend line near 86.00. Support is the bracket line (green) near 84.32, and then the gaps at 83.27 and at 82.17".

Bulls will try to overcome the downtrend line and turn the chart friendly.

  Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

    In my daily numbers on Monday; my resistance was .05 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .02 from the actual low.

Cattle: Spot on numbers being .05 from the high (2 ticks) and the low was .02 (1 tick) from my support number. Bulls need to hurdle the downtrend line, bears will be selling against there.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/28/09

Dec 29, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 12/25/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/28/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 12/28/09: My resistance was 85.45, just .05 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 84.87, just .02 from the actual low.

On Thursday 12/24/09 my numbers were:

Grains: Exact low and $.01 from the high in soybeans, and spot on corn numbers.

Crude Oil: My numbers were $.41 from the high and $.03 from the low.

S&P: 4 ticks from the high and 3 ticks (.75) from the low.

Gold: On the spot support and helpful resistance.

Euro: .07 from the high and .23 off the low is spot on!

Bonds: 3 off the low and 7.5 off the high.

Natural Gas: .005 off the high and .012 off the low were perfect in a .319 range for the day.

Cattle: Helpful numbers.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has quadrupled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

 We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

85.92                        Key resistance (near DT line)

85.45

--------------84.87     Pivot

84.32

83.27 FG

       

         

Trend                         88.37 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….       Up from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways 

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .92                    Balanced 53%  




February Cattle (elec.) for 12/28/09: 

I continue to say "Major resistance is the long term downtrend line near 86.00. Support is the bracket line (green) near 84.32, and then the gaps at 83.27 and at 82.17".

Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

   In my daily numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .32 from the actual high, my pivot also acted as support and was .37 from the actual low. Market is looking for direction rotating at the pivot.

Cattle: I have the same thoughts as before as to future direction. Green bracket line supports, and the downtrend line (red) resists.

Commentary for 12/24/09

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bulls are not dead yet. Red downtrend line is resistance, and green uptrend line supports. I could trade either line using a stop to protect.

Commentary for 12/23/09

Cattle: Accurate numbers, but more important was the trade idea to sell near the downtrend line, which was rewarded nicely again. Little risk if wrong and stopped out, great location for a good reward if right.

Bulls must hold this level to form the lower part of a right shoulder to set up a possible head and shoulder bottom. Bulls still have to prove their case to me; I want to continue to sell rallies at resistance.

Commentary for 12/22/09

Cattle: Accurate numbers. I have the same thoughts as yesterday

Commentary for 12/21/09

Cattle: Spot on numbers! My idea of selling near resistance risking .32 to make .65 worked in the morning, but the resell at resistance late in the day only produced a .42 break. There was never any pain in either sell because the rejection at resistance was quick both times. Bulls held exactly above the steep downtrend line and I think the chart wants to test the crisscross above at 86.27 next (as long as my first support holds early this week). I want to be a seller there and risk .40 to make 1.20.

Commentary for 12/18/09

Cattle: Spot on numbers! Chart is catching its breath before attempting an assault on the downtrend line. I would sell near first resistance risking .32 looking to make .65 on a day trade. Long term bulls should have a stop just below the first support, and bears should throw in the towel above 86.27.

   Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, February crude oil, March S&P, March Euro FX, March 30 yr TBond, February gold, and February natural Gas and February cattle

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/18/09

Dec 18, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 12/17/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/1/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Corn

After the close on 12/18/09: My resistance  was 404 1/4, .03 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 3.90 1/4, just .00 3/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

 We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

4.10 1/4 FG

4.04 1/4                          

--------------3.97 1/4      Pivot & 200 day MA

3.90 1/4

3.79                                Key Support

 

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Up                                                            

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down     

Monthly chart …Down $3.97 1/4  is the 200 day ma

ATR 12 1/4               Balanced 51%




I said "Green uptrend line is pivotal now, red bracket line is resistance. I also said "$3.97 the 200 day is in play now" and proved to be good support".

Market closed on the 200 day and awaits further direction. Firm tone on chart still.

March Corn for 12/18/09

 I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Thursday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.02 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.03 from the actual low.

Grains: Accurate corn numbers. Soybean resistance helpful but not support numbers. General selling in commodities helped by the stronger rebounding $ was a good excuse for grains to correct from their resistance levels. The dollar rallied 5% from their November lows, and just cannot be ignored.

Soybeans came very close to my prediction before the beginning of the month and on 12/2/09 when I said "Soybeans $10.80 is going to be a hard wall to breakdown, then the bulls are facing the high in the summer when the perception that the crop was floating away and posted $11.05. As long as $10.12 holds I think we will be range bound $11.05 to $10.12. Corn has looked weak lately, and the thoughts I have had about this market are surprising to see this market at this level at this time".

I am not bearish at this level but I am a willing seller of grains at resistance levels for a day trade. When near $10.60 I am more willing to take it overnight. I really think this is a trading affair into year end and trading in a $.60 range bound trade in soybeans, and $.20 in corn, but in time with a stronger dollar I think we will further erode to lower support levels.

   Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March  corn, January crude oil, March S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/17/09

Dec 18, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/16/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/17/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 12/17/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 85.30, just .15 from the actual high, and my support was 84.32, just .05 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has more than tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

 We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

 

86.27                        Key resistance (Downtrend line)

--------------85.30     Pivot

84.32

83.27 FG

  Use the same numbers as used on 12/16/09

         

Trend                         88.47 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….       Up from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways 

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .85                    Overbought 86%  




February Cattle (elec.) for 12/17/09: 

I said "Major resistance is the long term downtrend line near 86.30. Support is the steep uptrend line near 84.32, and then the gaps at 83.27 and at 82.17".

   Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

     In my daily numbers on Wednesday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .10 from the actual high, my support was the EXACT actual low. 

Cattle: Spot on resistance, and the exact low was the support number. Improving chart picture but I still have the same thoughts.

                           

   Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March  corn, January crude oil, March S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  


Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/16/09

Dec 18, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/15/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/16/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Corn 

After the close on 12/16/09: My resistance  was 4.14 1/2 FG, just .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 4.00, .03 1/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

 We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

4.21 1/4

4.14 1/2 FG                             

--------------4.07 1/4      Pivot

4.00

3.90 1/4

      Use the same numbers as used on 12/15/09

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Up                                                            

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down     

Monthly chart ….... Down $3.97  is the 200 day ma

ATR 12                    Overbought 83%




Green uptrend line is pivotal now, red bracket line is resistance. I said "$3.97 the 200 day is in play now" and proved to be good support.

  March Corn for 12/16/09

 
I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".


Grains:
Spot on soybean numbers in a 19 cent range, with corn stuck in a 5 cent range for the day. I was impressed with the way grains held up in spite of a stronger dollar. As you know I am a bear at these price levels, but until January soybeans (SF) get below $10.19, March corn (CH) below $3.70, and March wheat (WH) below $5, I want to continue to look at it as a trading affair, which means selling it near resistance above $10.60, and buy it near $10.30.

This is what trading is all about, trade management. Approach, structure, strategy, plan, money management, and execution. Since we are discretionary traders, we can use the tools of the technical's, fundamentals, and some intuitiveness in how we trade. Every market is different and has their own nuances, and this the discretionary trader also observes and tries to utilize. All trades are not created equal, as well as time and price. One thing we all have in common, on the day we want to enter or exit, we all need and want to optimize the best price on that given day, and that is where the daily numbers come in. But even if you have a black box, or your own system, my numbers will verify your numbers or give caution if different.  


In my daily numbers on Tuesday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.02 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot also acted as support was $.01 1/2 from the actual low. This market is looking for direction trading so close to the pivot the entire day.                            

  

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March  corn, January crude oil, March S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

 

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/16/09

Dec 17, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 12/15/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/16/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 12/16/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 85.30, just .10 from the actual high, and my support was 84.32, the EXACT actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for the Free Live one on one Farmer Hedging Program Webinar By: Howard Tyllas

 

 

86.27                        Key resistance (Downtrend line)

--------------85.30     Pivot

84.32

83.27 FG

 

         

Trend                         88.50 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….       Up from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways 

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .87                    Overbought 86%  


February Cattle (elec.) for 12/16/09: 

Major resistance is the long term downtrend line near 86.30. Support is the steep uptrend line near 84.32, and then the gaps at 83.27 and at 82.17.

   Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

   In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .02 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .35 from the actual low.

Cattle: Spot on resistance stopped the rally in its tracks, support was helpful. Market closing above the first downtrend line is friendly, that line now acts as support. Long term downtrend is next for the bulls and will prove tough to hurdle.

You see the same downtrend lines as I do; I want to sell this correction in a bear market. I would have sold yesterday and stopped out for a small loss, and would have resold near resistance and remain short looking to buy back near support today or tomorrow. I would sell near 86.00 with a buy stop at 86.30 stop close only. If I was aggressive I would sell against the pivot with a buy stop just above to protect

                            

   Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March  corn, January crude oil, March S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

  $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/16/09

Dec 16, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/15/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/16/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans 

After the close on 12/16/09: My resistance  was 10.68 1/2, just .01 1/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 10.49, .02 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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10.78 1/2                      

10.68 1/2                       Resistance

-------------10.49      Pivot  

10.29 1/2                               

10.19                            

      

Trend              

5 day chart.……….  Up (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways       

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.71 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 24 1/4               Overbought 72%


"Double top" is once again resistance. This is the main reason technically for playing the sell side against these tops. Uptrend line remains key support. Failure at red bracket line and closing lower is bearish near term.

Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events.                                                       

In my daily numbers on Tuesday my pivot acted as resistance and was $.04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.00 1/2 from the actual low. (Bracket line at

$10.68 1/2 was perfect resistance)

 January Soybeans for 12/16/09

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68 or $10.80) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

 Grains: Spot on soybean numbers in a 19 cent range, with corn stuck in a 5 cent range for the day. I was impressed with the way grains held up in spite of a stronger dollar. As you know I am a bear at these price levels, but until January soybeans (SF) get below $10.19, March corn (CH) below $3.70, and March wheat (WH) below $5, I want to continue to look at it as a trading affair, which means selling it near resistance above $10.60, and buy it near $10.30.

This is what trading is all about, trade management. Approach, structure, strategy, plan, money management, and execution. Since we are discretionary traders, we can use the tools of the technical's, fundamentals, and some intuitiveness in how we trade. Every market is different and has their own nuances, and this the discretionary trader also observes and tries to utilize. All trades are not created equal, as well as time and price. One thing we all have in common, on the day we want to enter or exit, we all need and want to optimize the best price on that given day, and that is where the daily numbers come in. But even if you have a black box, or your own system, my numbers will verify your numbers or give caution if different.    

I want to buy the spreads again if they pullback, they should remain firm going into the year end. Farmers are getting cash rich seeing prices at harvest that is historic. This should have them in a position to hold remaining soybeans and to hedge some downside in hopes S. America will have a weather event and send futures and cash basis levels sharply higher. This induces an inverted situation to give reason for them to sell their beans.

PRC purchases both days this week underpins the old crop, bulls will talk about the disappointing soy yields, record November crush figures, and maybe the seasonal of strong soybean prices through Christmas. I will point out bearish supply/demand, my bullish stance on the dollar, Brazil has plenty of idle acreage now and going forward, global feed demand is stagnant for 20 years, Universities and seed companies forecast a jump in yield in a couple of years that is mind boggling. No one can predict events that will truly change the short or long term picture, but this is a futures market and "perception" drives the market to levels that produce opportunities to take advantage of a prediction (by the perception) for something to happen before it does, and get a price that equates to if it did happen before it even does. That is why I a technical trader do not care why a market gets to a price level, I try to exploit that.   

No matter bullish or bearish, outside markets will force realities in the grain market in time. Stock market could turn bearish; the dollar bullish, current government looks to change free trade agreements that have boosted farm income for 30 years.

I could quote these thoughts I am gathering for my 2010 outlook, but the bottom line is the FUNDS either do not know world supply/demand for grains, or do not care, they got the money and at the end of the auction they will have been the buyer. They need not be right the fundamentals to drive a market past reality, but the pendulum in time will swing back; I just want to take trades along the way.

I made a few trades buying my shorts back and going long 1 all at $10.51, and sold it back and got short from $1061 to $10.66 1/2. I covered them at $10.58 and tonight at $10.54 and have no position now.        I want to sell rallies at resistances, and I would get long lightly near $10.30.


   Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March  corn, January crude oil, March S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

February Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/15/09

Dec 15, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/14/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/15/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

February Cattle

After the close on 12/15/09: My resistance  was 10.80, just .01 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 10.49, .03 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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85.27                        

--------------84.27 FG     Pivot

83.27 FG

82.17 FG

 

       

Trend                         88.52 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....….       Up from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways 

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .82                    Overbought 85%  


February Cattle (elec.) for 12/15/09: 

Major resistance is the steep downtrend line near 84.70, and then the gap at 85.25. Support is the gaps at 83.27 and at 82.17.

  Notice how I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

  In my daily numbers on Monday; my resistance was .20 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .32 from the actual low

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bulls are trying to get above the gap resistance. I would still sell against the gap but would use a buy stop just above. I would try and sell against the resistance if stopped out. Bulls need the market to close above the long term downtrend line to have a chance to get above the October highs and regain control of the market.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

 

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/15/09

Dec 15, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/14/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/15/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans 

After the close on 12/15/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 10.63 3/4, .04 3/4 from the actual high, and my support and was 10.49, just .00 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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11.05                             2009 High

10.78 1/2                       Resistance

-------------10.63 3/4      Pivot  

10.49                               

10.31                            

      

Trend              

5 day chart.……….  Up (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways       

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.69 1/2 is 200 DMA

 ATR 25                    Overbought 79%


"Double top" is once again resistance. This is the main reason technically for playing the sell side against these tops. Uptrend line remains key support.

Many reasons this year for the swings in price.

Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events.                                                       

In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.04 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.04 1/2 from the actual low. 

January Soybeans for 12/15/09

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68 or $10.80) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Grains: Accurate numbers. You know the story in here. So what will the funds do? I do not know what they will do, but what I do know is that I will continue to day trade using the numbers. I have said this for awhile, and also said that it is worth a small position to trade at support and resistance bracket lines, and take profits somewhere along the way. Many times we have rotated up and down between $10.60 and $10.30, and the extremes have traded briefly above and below there, but within the parameters I have laid out in the past on 12/2/09 when I said "Soybeans $10.80 is going to be a hard wall to breakdown, then the bulls are facing the high in the summer when the perception that the crop was floating away and posted $11.05. As long as $10.12 holds I think we will be range bound $11.05 to $10.12. Corn has looked weak lately, and the thoughts I have had about this market are surprising to see this market at this level at this time". (more comments like this on 12/1/09 & 11/30/09)

I bought back my short corn last night (Sunday) at $4.01, and even got long 1 at $4.00 1/2 before selling it back at $4.03 1/2 before calling it a night. I also covered my short soybeans at $10.27 so I would have no position going into open outcry on Monday. Selling again at $10.39 in open outcry soon proved to be not a good idea and covered some for a few cents loss, but the others I am still short. What saved me from that loss was my bull spreads worked well making 3 cents from Friday's close, and I covered all for now. I am not telling anyone to give up on their bull spreads of SF/SH from -8 cents (went to -9 cents, now -6 1/4) and the spread I had SF/SK from -17 cents (now 10 cents making 7 cents).

The market looks so strong, but remember it has looked strong every time before it failed. This short trade like the previous sells at this resistance that worked, has a protective buy stop and risking less than I am willing to make. As long as it works more times than not I will take the trade. Sometimes I might sell only 1, and sometimes 5 or more, but I always keep it reasonable and insignificant no matter right or wrong. Futures traders really don't have much hard news around them but do have plenty of small talk and rumors that Managed Money and Index Funds will be allocating a lot of new money to the grain markets at the turn of the year.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, March S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/10/09

Dec 10, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/9/09 5:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/10/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Corn

After the close on 12/10/09: My resistance  was 3.97, just .01 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 3.80 1/4, just .00 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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3.97                              200 Day moving average

3.90 1/2

--------------3.80 1/4     Pivot

3.70

3.66 1/4 XX                 Stops Below      

   

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Down                                                           

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down     

Monthly chart ….... Down $3.97 is the 200 day ma

ATR 12 1/4               Extremely Oversold 10%


I said "Green uptrend line is resistance now, downtrend line near $3.70 is now support".

March Corn for 12/10/09

 I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Wednesday my resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.00 1/2 from the actual low.  

Grains: Spot on numbers! Same thoughts as yesterday going into the report. So I will mostly review briefly my thoughts since the last report 11/10/09.

Snow storm and 1.5 billion bushels in the corn fields provides the most support going into the new year. With all that corn in the field, we will not know what production really is until Feb.1 or after. Soybeans plunge to my $10.21 bolsters my thought of a sufficient pipeline need even though I feel carryout will be lowered tomorrow to 230 or under. This also tells me that the market is more focused on supply fulfilling current needs now rather than the supply down the road. I also think that is because by April, S. American soybeans will be flooding the world market. This has been the main reason I was trading the bull spreads of SF/SK. I did not plan on the current high prices which have served the purpose of getting farmers to market their beans now, which has filled the pipeline to meet the current strong export sales in full. This is why the spreads collapsed, and at these levels the risk reward is worth it. If demand picks up and carryout continues to tighten, the spread will work well.

I have stressed to you how I do not care what drives the market to levels, I want to exploit them, and regardless of if you are a speculator or producer, you make decisions at these levels to buy or sell depending on your needs. It does not matter what the market does when you are out, it only matters when you are in the market. In the market for a speculator means you are long or short the market, gambling, seeking profit and have some protection if wrong. For a producer if they are not hedged using the market, they are gambling, and if hedged it is like they are out of the market.

Everyone knows who to bet once the race is over. Reality is the same in trading, you make your bet before the race begins, and you bet using the knowledge, experience, and wisdom, execute a risk management program, money management, and try to make bets that puts the odds in your favor.

You know the levels of support and resistance, the dollar looks like it is holding and not the doomed currency that was the perception for so long until recently, funds I said would not buy until next year, and now that looks to be true. The outside markets will not help the grains the next 3 weeks, the technical's are eroding as I have predicted, and now it comes down to trading the market technically with my continued bearish bias stance at these price levels. How you trade it is up to you.      

Lastly, As I said before and continue to think, spread traders should still consider buying the December 2010 corn and selling December 2010 wheat (CZ'10/WZ'10), fundamentally it looks really good. I also have said and still say, buy December 2010 corn and sell December 2010 soybean meal (CZ'10/SMZ'10).

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

WASDE Report on December 10, 2009

Dec 10, 2009



WASDE December 10, 2009

My Take: WASDE Report was a non event. I would say that the soybean carryout was disappointing.

Another gain (2.2mmt) in world wheat stock despite lower production (USDA reduced 09/10 world wheat usage.

A 20 cent bushel increase in the ‘09/10 US on farm soy price to $9.20 despite expectations for a record large 2010 S. American soybean crop.

Exports on today's export sales report: More impressive than the trade was looking for.

My Early grain call: Soybeans 5 cents higher, corn mixed, and wheat mixed.

What do I think and how will I trade it? Subscribe Now!

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OILSEEDS:  Total U.S. oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 97.9 million tons, up fractionally due to a small increase in cottonseed.  Soybean exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1.34 billion reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and higher projected soybean imports by China.  U.S. export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) were record high through November, up almost 60 percent from a year ago.  With projected crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 255 million bushels, down 15 million from last month.  

Soybeans and product price projections are all higher this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is projected at $8.75 to $10.25 compared with $8.20 to $10.20 last month.  The soybean meal price is projected at $260 to $310 per short ton, up $10 on the bottom of the range.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 35.5 to 38.5 cents per pound compared with 33 to 37 cents last month.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 428.6 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month.  Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and cottonseed more than offset by reductions for sunflower seed and peanuts.  Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 59.4 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month with gains for Canada more than offsetting lower production for India.  Canadian rapeseed production is raised 1.6 million tons to 11.8 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. 

Higher-than-expected yields account for the change.  India rapeseed production is lowered due to reduced harvested area.  Hot, dry conditions during much of the planting season prevented area from reaching earlier expectations.  Global sunflower seed production is projected at 30.7 million tons, down 1 million from last month.  Lower production in Argentina and Russia account for most of the change.  Other changes include reduced peanut production for China and India, and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 94.4 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month.  Increased rapeseed exports from Canada and Australia and increased soybean exports from the United States account for most of the change.  China soybean imports are raised 0.5 million tons to 41 million, just below the record 41.1 million imported in 2008/09.

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 15 million bushels higher this month reflecting lower expected food use.  Food use is projected 15 million bushels lower based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Census Bureau and indications of 2009-crop quality that suggest higher-than-normal flour extraction rates again in 2009/10. 

Higher flour extraction rates reduce the quantity of wheat needed for milling.  Food use for 2008/09 is estimated 1 million bushels higher based on the latest revisions to mill-grind data.  The marketing-year average farm price projection is unchanged at $4.65 to $5.05 per bushel.

 Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 1.0 million tons higher as increased production in Canada and EU-27 more than offset lower beginning stocks and production for Australia.  Global wheat production is projected 2.0 million tons higher.  Production is raised 2.5 million tons for Canada

based on the latest estimates from Statistics Canada which sharply raised yields in the Prairie Provinces.  Production is revised 0.3 million tons higher for EU-27 based on an upward yield revision for Italy.  FSU-12 production is also raised slightly with a 0.2-million-ton increase in production for Belarus.  Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia production based on a downward revision to the

latest government forecast.  Australia production is also lowered for 2007/08 and 2008/09 in line with recently revised government estimates.  These changes lower 2009/10 Australia beginning stocks 0.8 million tons.

Global wheat trade for 2009/10 is projected slightly lower this month, mostly reflecting lower imports by Iran and lower exports by Australia and China.  Imports for Iran are lowered 1.0 million tons based on the slower pace of reported shipments as compared with last year at this time.  Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Australia, reflecting tighter exportable supplies.  Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for

China based on the slow pace of shipments to date and relatively high internal wheat prices.  Exports are also lowered 0.2 million tons for India based on smaller-than-expected recent shipments.  Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton increase in exports for Canada with larger available supplies.  Global consumption is lowered this month mostly reflecting a 1-million-ton reduction in expected EU-27 feeding and reductions of 0.8 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, in food use in India and the United States.  With higher production and lower use, global ending stocks are raised 2.6 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS:  U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected higher this month with a reduction in expected corn exports.  Corn exports are lowered 50 million bushels based on the slow pace of shipments to date and increased competition from larger supplies in Ukraine. 

Projected U.S. corn ending stocks are raised 50 million bushels.  At the projected 1,675 million bushels, ending stocks would be nearly unchanged from 2008/09.  The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price projection for corn is unchanged at $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel. Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 3.0 million tons lower mostly as a result of reduced India millet production.  Global coarse grain beginning stocks are lowered based on multiple year revisions that raise estimated

corn feeding in Iran and barley consumption in Kazakhstan. World corn production is raised mostly reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine.  World barley production is raised 1.0 million tons with increases for Australia, Canada, and Belarus.  World oat production is lowered slightly with small

reductions for Canada and Australia more than offsetting an increase for Belarus.  Production changes for Australia, Belarus, and Canada reflect the latest government estimates from these countries.  India millet production is lowered 4.0 million tons as area expansion on unplanted rice land was less than expected and the erratic monsoon season lowered yields.  Lower production reduces India millet consumption, but has little impact on global coarse grain trade.

Global coarse grain trade for 2009/10 is nearly unchanged this month as higher Ukraine corn exports offset lower U.S. corn exports and higher Australia barley exports offset lower EU-27 barley exports.  World coarse grain consumption is lowered mostly as a result of reduced India millet use. 

Sorghum consumption is also lowered reflecting a small reduction in food, seed, and industrial use for China and a small reduction in feed use for EU-27.  World barley consumption is raised with increased feed use for Canada and Australia and increased food, seed, and industrial use for Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Australia.  Mixed grain feeding is also raised for EU-27.  Global coarse grain ending stocks are

down 0.8 million tons with reductions in projected stocks of mixed grains, millet, rye, barley, and oats more than offsetting an increase in sorghum.  World corn stocks are nearly unchanged.

RICE:  No changes are made on the U.S. 2009/10 rice supply side; however, on the use side exports are raised slightly and ending stocks lowered by the same amount.  Domestic and residual use is unchanged from last month.  The export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 97.0 million with rough rice exports raised 2.0 million, and combined brown and milled exports (rough-equivalent basis) lowered 1.0 million. 

The combined medium- and short-grain export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 29.0 million, while the long-grain export projection at 68.0 million is unchanged from last month.  The changes in the export projections are based on analysis of export data through September from the U.S.

Census Bureau along with U.S. Export Sales report data through the end of November.  The pace of combined medium- and short-grain exports for both milled and rough rice are ahead of last year, while long-grain exports in both categories are lagging a year ago.  Ending stocks are projected at 43.2 million cwt, 1.0 million below last month, with the reduction all in combined medium- and short-grain.

The all rice season-average farm price for 2009/10 is forecast at $13.90 to $14.90 per cwt, up 5 cents per cwt on both ends of the range.  The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.60 to $13.60 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  The combined medium-and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.75 to $18.75 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on each end.  U.S.

long-grain prices have been supported largely on an increase in import demand led by increased import activity by the Philippines, while medium-grain prices have softened since the beginning of the marketing year.

World 2009/10 rice supply and use projections are raised from a month ago.  Global rice production is projected at 433.9 million tons, up 1.8 million from a month ago largely on increases for China, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Korea offset some by reductions for Brazil, North Korea, and the Philippines.  Global exports are increased 0.8 million tons largely on expected increases for India and China.  The increase for India is based on larger expected exports of basmati rice to markets in the Middle East.  The increase for China is based largely on an increase in available exportable supplies due to an increase in production.  Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 89.5 million tons, up 3.5 million from last month, but 2.1 million below 2008/09.  The increase in stocks is mostly due to larger stocks projected for Thailand, India, and Vietnam.

SUGAR:  Projected 2009/10 sugar supply and use are unchanged from last month.  Compared with a year earlier, supply is projected at 11.6 million short tons, raw value, down 5.2 percent.  Total use is projected at 10.6 million tons, down 1.9 percent.  Ending stocks, at 1 million tons, are down 435,000 tons.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is forecast slightly lower as fourth-quarter broiler production is reduced, more than offsetting small increases to the beef production forecast.  Egg production is forecast slightly higher.

Meat production for 2010 is lowered from last month as forecasts for beef, pork, and poultry meat production are reduced.  Cattle slaughter is unchanged but carcass weights in the first quarter are forecast lower.  Hog slaughter is reduced on lower expected hog imports from Canada. 

Growth in broiler and turkey production is slower as hatchery data show few signs of expansion.

Red meat export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are raised.  Beef exports are forecast higher on expected economic recovery in a number of markets.  Pork exports for 2009 are increased because third-quarter shipments were stronger than expected, and higher 2010 pork exports reflect improved economic prospects in several markets.  The poultry export forecast for 2009 is adjusted to reflect higher third-quarter shipments. 

Cattle price forecasts are reduced for 2009 and 2010 as relatively weak demand for beef is expected to pressure prices.  The hog price forecasts are raised for fourth-quarter 2009 and first-quarter 2010.  The broiler price is lowered for 2009; turkey price forecasts are raised for 2009 and 2010.  The egg price forecast is increased for 2009 and 2010 as demand for eggs has strengthened in the fourth quarter.

COTTON:  This month's U.S. 2009/10 cotton forecasts include a slight increase in production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks.  Production is raised 96,000 bales from last month as reductions for the Mississippi Delta states are more than offset by increases in the other three regions. 

Domestic mill use is unchanged.  Exports are raised 500,000 bales due to higher expected foreign import demand.  Ending stocks are forecast at 4.5 million, 400,000 bales below last month and 31 percent of total use.  The average price received by producers is forecast at 56 to 64 cents per pound, 4 cents higher on each end of the range.

The world cotton 2009/10 forecasts include lower beginning stocks and higher consumption relative to last month, resulting in a 3.6-percent reduction in ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are lowered mainly in India and Uzbekistan due to adjustments in the prior-year balance sheets. 

Production is lowered in India and Peru, but is raised in Pakistan and the United States.  World consumption is raised 1.0 million bales from last month, including increases for China, India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, and Thailand.  World trade also is raised due to increased demand by several importing countries, which is partially offset by a reduction for Pakistan.  The China import forecast is increased 500,000 bales to 9.0 million as the government has recently announced larger-than-expected import quotas, thereby removing a key constraint on imports and consumption. 

Exports are raised in the United States, Brazil, India, Pakistan, and Greece, but are lowered in Uzbekistan.  World ending stocks are now forecast at 51.8 million bales.

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/9/09

Dec 09, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/8/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/9/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans 

After the close on 12/9/09: My resistance  was 10.56 1/2, .05 from the actual high, and my  support was 10.21, .00 1/2 from the actual low.

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10.64 1/2                         Resistance

10.56 1/2                         

-------------10.43 3/4        Pivot  

10.31                               

10.21                               

      

Trend              

5 day chart.……….Down(from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways       

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.65 1/2 is 200 DMA

 ATR 24 1/2              Balanced 40%


I continue to say "Since downtrend line was hurdled the bulls hit their target of $10.68 but failed and created a "double top", then the pullback, then the extension to the next and more significant "double top" and failed a second time. As I said before "I consider this a key reversal, but lately the funds have come back to negate this signal, so I consider the action bearish but not as strong as usual. Uptrend line is pivotal at $10.42 3/4 now".

    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

   In my daily numbers on Tuesday my resistance was the $.00 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.05 1/4 from the actual low. 

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

    Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68 or $10.80) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, as well as spot on resistance and helpful support in soybeans.

Corn is still extremely oversold technically even though they were firm on Tuesday. Crude oil corrected 12% coming $10 off their highs, gold retracing the $100 (I was looking for) or 8% from their high, maybe stemming from the dollar showing bottoming action on the chart. This is not helpful for the bulls. I will admit that soybeans seem to defy gravity, and I can make a case for the bulls but not at this price level. To me, the fact that the SF/SH is 8 cents tells me that the high price has produced the farmer selling to fill the pipeline and thus so the basis has weakened. Corn has been in a carry charge for this entire year, with only brief times the spread would narrow a few cents. This could induce more farmers selling of soybeans next year, and get the carry for corn.

Trade is taking off 50 million bushels of corn exports on the report Thursday and adding 40 million bushels of usage for soybeans. This is not the final report and even then (January 2010) it is already expected to be updated once or twice thereafter because of this historic late harvest. I am thinking that the export sales report that comes out every Thursday could be as important this week as the USDA supply/demand report.

I covered my shorts at $10.48, and still have my spreads that I want to take into the report. I spun my wheels making a little more on my swing trade than what I lost on my spreads Tuesday. Outside markets are no longer helpful to the bulls, the fundamentals I perceive as bearish, corn chart is breaking down, but soybeans are holding up. Both these markets are hard to hold no matter bull or bear positions, and day or swing trading at locations with a bearish bias is how I continue to want to approach trading the grains at this time. I want to continue to sell rallies at resistance. Funds look like they are defending their soybean "bet" and they have the money to be in control, but when the day comes to unload ownership, you will see quick movement to a bracket line support area.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/9/09

Dec 09, 2009



This report was sent to subscribers on 12/8/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/9/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Corn

After the close on 12/9/09: My resistance  was 3.90 1/2, just .01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 3.79, .00 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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3.97 1/2                         200 Day moving average

3.90 1/2

--------------3.84 1/2     Pivot

3.78 1/2                       Support

3.71 XX                      Stops Below      

   

Trend     

5 day chart....….….  Down                                                           

Daily chart   ……….Sideways          

Weekly chart …….. Down      

Monthly chart ….... Down $3.97 is the 200 day ma

ATR 11 1/4               Extremely Oversold 6%



Green uptrend line is resistance now, downtrend line near $3.70 is now support.

March Corn for 12/9/09

 I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

In my daily numbers on Tuesday my resistance was $.01 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.01 1/2 from the actual low.  

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, as well as spot on resistance and helpful support in soybeans.

Corn is still extremely oversold technically even though they were firm on Tuesday. Crude oil corrected 12% coming $10 off their highs, gold retracing the $100 (I was looking for) or 8% from their high, maybe stemming from the dollar showing bottoming action on the chart. This is not helpful for the bulls. I will admit that soybeans seem to defy gravity, and I can make a case for the bulls but not at this price level. To me, the fact that the SF/SH is 8 cents tells me that the high price has produced the farmer selling to fill the pipeline and thus so the basis has weakened. Corn has been in a carry charge for this entire year, with only brief times the spread would narrow a few cents. This could induce more farmers selling of soybeans next year, and get the carry for corn.

Trade is taking off 50 million bushels of corn exports on the report Thursday and adding 40 million bushels of usage for soybeans. This is not the final report and even then (January 2010) it is already expected to be updated once or twice thereafter because of this historic late harvest. I am thinking that the export sales report that comes out every Thursday could be as important this week as the USDA supply/demand report.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/9/09

Dec 09, 2009


This report was sent to subscribers on 12/8/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/9/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 12/9/09: My resistance  was 81.85, .60 from the actual high (only .12 in open outcry), and my support was 79.17, just .07 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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82.97

81.85

--------------80.67      Pivot

79.50                         Low since June 15, 2008

79.17

Use the same numbers as used on 12/ 4 thru 8 /09

       

Trend                         87.75 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…. Down  from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .77                    Extremely Oversold 9%  



December Cattle (elec) for 12/9/09: 

  The red steep downtrend line finds resistance at 81.50; support is at 79.50 on the weekly chart". I want to sell rallies near the downtrend line.

Notice how the lower channel line acted as perfect support on Wednesday, and perfect resistance on Thursday. Also note the high on Monday was exactly on this same line.

 In my daily numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .45 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .10 from the actual low. 

Cattle: Spot on support did little to buoy this market. Same thoughts as before, sell rallies at a good location, and I cannot buy this market looking at a chart like this. I would rather wait for bottoming action and buy 1.00 or 2.00 higher than where we are now, than buy it here.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow? 

The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

December Cattle Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/7/09

Dec 07, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 12/5/09 8.00 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/7/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

December Cattle

After the close on 12/7/09: My resistance  was 81.85, .20 from the actual high, and my support was 80.67, .27 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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82.97

81.85

--------------80.67      Pivot

79.50                         Low since June 15, 2008

79.17

     Use the same numbers as used on 12/4/09

       

Trend                         87.87 is the 200 day MA

5 day chart....…. Down  from last week same day                                                          

Daily chart   ……….Down        

Weekly chart …….. Sideways   

Monthly chart …...  Sideways

ATR .90                    Extremely Oversold 8%  



December Cattle (elec) for 12/7/09: 

  I said "The red steep downtrend line finds resistance at 83.00; support is at 79.50 on the weekly chart". I want to sell rallies near the downtrend line.

Notice how the lower channel line acted as perfect support on Wednesday, and perfect resistance on Thursday.

 In my daily numbers on Friday; my resistance was .55 from the actual high, my support was .12 from the actual low.  

Cattle: Market is in trouble, and for me I need a few more daily bars to setup a place for an attempt to buy and get long. Not easy to buy, but this location is long term support and attracts bottom pickers. Close below $79 could cause panic liquidation if it has not been doing that already. I am not interested in selling here, but as for buying using a sell stop for a day trade might be tempting, but last week that idea did not work at all.

 Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

January Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/2/09

Dec 02, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 12/1/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/2/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans

After the close on 12/1/09: My pivot acted as resistance and was 10.64 1/2 the EXACT actual high, and my support was 10.29, .03 1/4 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

Are you still using a service that comes out in the morning and gives you numbers reflecting what has already traded, and worse than that uses 4 or more support, and 4 or more resistance numbers?

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10.80 XX                         Resistance                            

-------------10.64 1/2        Pivot  

10.49                               

10.29                               

       

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up   (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.60 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 25 1/2               Overbought 69%


Since downtrend line was hurdled the bulls hit their target of $10.68 but failed and created a "double top", then the pullback, then the extension to the next and more significant "double top" and failed a second time. As I said before "I consider this a key reversal, but lately the funds have come back to negate this signal, so I consider the action bearish but not as strong as usual". 

Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

   In my daily numbers on Tuesday my resistance was $.01 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.03 1/2 from the actual low.

January Soybeans for 12/2/09

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

 Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68 or $10.80) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Grains: Spot on numbers in soybeans. Fund scenario before the grain open outcry open of a weak dollar and resumption of first of the month buying propelled soybeans higher with corn being dragged along for the ride. Corn bulls were disappointed in the fact that the government has postponed a decision of a higher ethanol blend until spring 2010. The proposal for more usage was based upon projections of gasoline use which is in reality decreasing and not increasing. The higher blend rate would have picked up the slack, but the concern I had when it was proposed was the ability for current production cars would be able to run on the blend without damage to the engines. This is what they want more information about before going further.

Soybeans rallied to my number that you have been looking at for some time ($10.80). The lower close after making a new high for the run is bearish, but as I said last week when the same thing happened, I warned that I felt the funds could easily override this technical signal, not this time though. Unless there is a further dollar collapse, I cannot make a case for the upside from this current level. Can they go up? Of course, I have learned markets can and will do anything and everything, but I have also learned that it is prudent to always have a risk strategy to take you out of the market when wrong and have it remain a trade that did not work, rather than to "think" or give reason why the market will not do this or that and risk more on a losing trade, because if wrong then, you gave away your control, become emotional, and wind up losing more than you were willing to make, in other words a gambler who cannot walk away until broke and forced to. The casino I try to always be knows when the odds are not in their favor, does not try to win every bet, and does not try to get back their losses all at once if a player (the market) got lucky and took away some of our money.

Bottom Line: Weak dollar producing across the board commodity buying is the only factor I see for grains to rally from here. Charts are still bullish, but looking "toppy" to me. Corn bracket line resistance is holding let alone the highs nearby at $4.25. The funds provide opportunities and prices no matter high or low that I continue to want to exploit. I do that through my charts and daily numbers on any given trade day. End users and producers should remain focused on profits not furthering a gamble for further gain without at least protection if the price gets away from them. 

Soybeans $10.80 is going to be a hard wall to breakdown, then the bulls are facing the high in the summer when the perception that the crop was floating away and posted $11.05. As long as $10.12 holds I think we will be range bound $11.05 to $10.12. Corn has looked weak lately, and the thoughts I have had about this market are surprising to see this market at this level at this time.

I had little time to trade but I did take a limit order to sell SF at $10.78 and took out $.08 before I had to stop trading for the rest of the day. These are only trades to me. I really do not care where prices are now, or where they will be, but I am always cheering for higher grain prices for our farmers and lower energy costs for all of us. High grain prices/lower crude is my lifelong "home team" and I will always cheer for that. My guess for the corn in your cereal box cost about as much as $.05 more for every $1 corn goes up, yes meat goes up too, but I remember paying $5 for a gallon of gas last year. The $1.00 stays here on the farm; you know where most of our crude oil money goes.

 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, December corn, December crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, December gold, December natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

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www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390



Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

January Soybeasns Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/1/09

Dec 01, 2009

 

This report was sent to subscribers on 11/30/09 6:00 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/1/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

January Soybeans 

After the close on 12/1/09: My resistance  was 10.80, just .01 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 10.49, .03 1/2 from the actual low.

Ask yourself, how well would I have traded this market if I had these numbers last night? Subscribe now! See for yourself why this second year of service has tripled my subscriber base.

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10.80                                Resistance                            

10.69 1/4                                     

-------------10.49               Pivot  

10.29                                Support at uptrend line

10.21

        1/2 way rule might be in play today

Trend             

5 day chart.……….. Up   (from last week same day)                                                 

Daily chart   …….…Down              

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.59 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 25 1/2               Overbought 83%




I still say "Red bracket line near $10.50 is pivotal; downtrend line is now support near $10.12. Since downtrend line was hurdled the bulls hit their target of $10.68 but failed and created a "double top". I consider this a key reversal, but lately the funds have come back to negate this signal, so I consider the action bearish but not as strong as usual". After this spike low was made, it warranted the adjustment of the steep uptrend line.

    Many reasons this year for the swings in price. Bottom line: Bracket lines are areas that correspond with news events. Green are when crops look good, red when the crops do not, or are delayed, aided by demand. 

    I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".

   In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.01 1/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.02 from the actual low.

     January Soybeans for 12/1/09

More chart comments: After you have seen this type of rejection at a high ($10.68) after rallying $1.14 in less than 2 weeks (almost a 10% gain) you will get the confidence that I have had for decades in taking trades at this type of location. When you look at the times it works versus the times you will get stopped out, and the amount gained when right versus the amount lost when wrong (does not hold) you see how I look at this trade as me being the casino getting the odds versus the player who gives up the odds.

 Patience to wait for good locations to enter a trade will reward you by providing minimum loss if wrong, and more profit if right. You might miss trades (some glad you did) and not be as active, but this type of trading makes you a casino, not a player. These locations are also valuable to the day trader that can use (in this case) the red bracket line (or the high of $10.68) to be a seller and have a stronger resistance backing you, hence easier to sell than when in the middle of bracket support and resistance lines.

Commodities in general: funds are known to buy the last few days of a month as well as the first 3 days of the new month. If they are not in the market buying the next 3 days, I do not think the money will inflow this month, and might even see some profit taking before year end. Then they can come into the new year buying with both hands if they want to, not hold what they got, window dress it into year end, and try to push it higher with only one strong hand, not two.

This is how I look at the chess board for now. I am not buying into the "buy commodities" at these levels, even though I think they could test their resistances like $80 crude, $10.68 soybeans and so on. I am watching the dollar because I know their (the funds) focus is on a bigger picture, longer term, and basically revolves around the dollar. I know I probably seem like a contra trend trader, but I would like nothing better than to be on the side of the fundamentals as well as on the side of the trend. But I have a problem being on the side of the trend without the fundamentals on my side at resistance (in this case) levels for longer than a day trade. There are also funds that act as "raiders" and will take advantage of technicals in a big way quickly, and get out quickly (a day or two).

Grains: I am taking any weather premium out of Argentina, but the excess rain in Brazil could spell trouble there, I will keep watching for us. There were only a handful of December corn deliveries that caught me as well as the trade floor by surprise. This caused the December to gain $.01 3/4 on the March, but did little to help rally the market.

I have the same thoughts as before, because what changed? Nothing. Price and time, market breathes, and I want to catch some of that at the point of inhale and exhale. Day trading the numbers has worked well lately, holding a long or short position is more or less spinning your wheels. It is easier to make $.50 $.10 at a time than $.50 on one move (for now). Put it like this, you know I feel the market fundamentally should be much lower than where we are now. I do not want to be right the fundamentals and wrong the market, but I would rather be right the market for all the wrong reasons. I want to sell longer term but the dollar action does not warrant that idea for now. That leaves me to day trade with a bearish bias. Will I buy it? Yes, but would rather take the sell signals and am more likely to trade a few more contracts on the short side.

The pivot could have been between the support and resistance at $10.59, but I felt it could produce a choppy pivot today and I want to avoid that action. I would rather buy the pivot support or sell the resistance number I am using, rather than using a $10.59 pivot and buying or selling against it. Can we trade using the $10.59, of course, but remember I want to be a casino, and I can intuitively and being "chart wise" strongly feel this is a choppy location today. I do not want to trade just to trade, so why trade a choppy pivot. THAT is the reason when you see numbers like what I am using in soybeans today no matter the market. It is to avoid a choppy pivot, and take a stronger signal at (in this case) the pivot (acting like support) or resistance.

I did well selling against $10.68 both in the night session and in open outcry. I bought back my short December corn at $3.98 1/2 on Sunday night. Please take note: when the market went above $10.68 late in the day by only $.01 1/4, and in a minute was trading below, this is the reason for my 5 minute rule. It means if you cannot trade above the resistance for more than 5 minutes, it is not facilitating trade and is just buy stops. I use a buy stop anyway because if they do facilitate trade above, I do not want to risk too much and see how wrong I can be. If the stop is not hit and still above my resistance for 5 minutes, I cancel the stop and just take a small loss. Wheat defies gravity and I shy away from trading this market for the last few years. I am flat (no position) grains right now.

Producers: Consider selling some upside on 2010 soybeans, this can be accomplished in a way that reflects your thoughts, but gives you let's say $.30 in the hand instead if $1.00 in the bush. Selling upside with a known margin $1 or more out of the money is a wise business decision that adds profits, and yes does not allow you more of that $1 than the $.30, but selling price areas that have only been traded once in history (2008) is to me always a casino bet to get 1 in the hand, the player must be right by 10% or more just to get close to the money he gave me, and then he gets his money back after that, and then it must go another $.30 to get an even money bet. He must be right $1.60 to get even money from me the producer or speculator. Of course this is in general, but your casino odds increase greatly if you have the margin money to work with. In options the old saying of "money makes money" is 100% true, and if interested you should email me or call. There are many strategies that can even get you long soybeans below, and at the same time sell them higher and still collect money.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow?   

 The 9 markets now covered daily are January soybeans, March corn, January crude oil, December S&P, December Euro FX, December 30 yr TBond, February gold, January natural gas, and December cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why people from Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

 $199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $199.00 monthly

 HowardTyllas a weekly newsletter $479 yearly

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390


Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

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