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August 2010 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

October Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 8/27/10

Aug 27, 2010

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This report was sent to subscribers on 8/26/10 6:15 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 8/27/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

October Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 8/27/10: My resistance was 99.10, .25 from the actual high, and my support was 97.50, just .15 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 8/30/10 will be sent to subscribers tonight 8/27/10. 

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  99.10                          Resistance

------------98.30        Pivot 

  97.50                      Top Channel Line Support

                    

        

Trend                                  92.10 is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart.......      Down     (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ......   Up                  

Weekly chart .......Up                      ATR 1.07

Monthly chart....    Sideways       Balanced 57%

 cat 8 27 10

I continue to say "Gap was filled at 99.92 and continues to act as resistance. Top channel line acts as support".

In my daily cattle numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .15 from the actual high, my support was .10 from the actual low.           

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/27/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers! I continue to have the same ideas of taking the sell signals only and only use the support numbers to take profit if they get there. I do not want to take the buy signals. I want to use a buy stop to protect and risk .35 on any sell signal

New Subscribers: Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr T Bond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea, Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

October Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 8/26/10

Aug 26, 2010

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This report was sent to subscribers on 8/25/10 5:59 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 8/26/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

October Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 8/26/10: My pivot acted as resistance and was 98.85, .15 from the actual high, and my support was 98.30, only .10 from the actual low.

All Results for 8/26/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .01 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .01 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .50 from the actual high; my support was .56 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 4.00 from the actual high; my support was 5.75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $3.40 from the actual high; my support was $2.30 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .34 from the actual high; my support was .08 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 5 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .025 from the actual high; my support was .015 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .15 from the actual high; my support was .10 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 8/27/10 have already been sent to subscribers at 6:15pm. 

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers

 

  99.47       

------------98.85        Pivot 

  98.30                      Uptrend Line Support  

 

        

Trend                                  92.05 is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart.......      Up     (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ......   Up                  

Weekly chart .......Up                      ATR 1.10

Monthly chart....    Sideways       Overbought 71%

 

cat 8 26 10

I continue to say "Gap was filled at 99.92 and continues to act as resistance. Top channel line acts as support" (at 98.00 on Monday).

In my daily cattle numbers on Wednesday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .32 from the actual high, my support was .25 from the actual low. 

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/26/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Idea to take the sell signal only was spot on. I want to continue to take the sell signals only and use a buy stop of .35 to protect the idea if wrong. Bulls must look at the uptrend lines and take a stand at them. If I was bullish because I knew about the fundamentals (which I do not) I would still risk only .35 at each line if they do not hold.        

New Subscribers: Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/25/10:

Cattle: Spot on resistance and accurate support. My idea to trade the sell side only was spot on. I continue with those thoughts and want to risk .35 trading the sell signals using a buy stop to protect. I always place the stop the same time you place the entry order.

 Results for 8/25/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .06 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .02 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .13 from the actual high; my support was .41 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was .50 from the actual high; my support was .75 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $3.80 from the actual high; my support was $0.60 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .03 from the actual high; my support was .20 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 24 from the actual high; my support was the EXACT actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .002 from the actual high; my support was .047 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .32 from the actual high; my support was .25 from the actual low. 

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/24/10:

Cattle: Numbers produced the exact high, and the actual low was .02 from my support. Not wanting to take the buy signal did not lose money on Monday, but rather kept me from making money. Keep a journal on your bias to see if it helps or hurts you. Not losing money is helpful, keeping you from making money like this one, is not. I want to trade from the sell side only today using the numbers risking .35 using a buy stop to protect. If the market closes above 101, we could see the market go into panic mode, or capitulation, either way expect volatile action if above.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr T Bond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea, Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

October Cattle (elec.) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 8/23/10

Aug 23, 2010

Top

This report was sent to subscribers on 8/21/10 8:30 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 8/23/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

October Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 8/23/10: My resistance was 100.00, the exact actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 99.15, just .02 from the actual low

Results for 8/23/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .04 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .38 from the actual high; my support was .46 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 1.75 from the actual high; my support was 3.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $4.20 from the actual high; my support was $3.90 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .51 from the actual high; my support was .33 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 13 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .012 from the actual high; my support was .004 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was the EXACT actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 8/24/10 have already been sent to subscribers at 5:10pm.

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers

 

100.00                         Resistance

------------99.15       Pivot 

  98.30                         Support

 

             Use the same numbers as used on 8/20/10 

Trend                                  91.85 is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart.......      Up     (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ......   Up                  

Weekly chart .......Up                      ATR 1.29

Monthly chart....    Sideways       Overbought 86%

 

cat 8 23 10

 I said "Gap was filled at 99.92 and continues to act as resistance. Top channel line acts as support" (at 98.00 on Monday).

 October Cattle (elec.) for 8/23/10:

In my daily cattle numbers on Friday; my resistance was .45 from the actual high, my pivot acted as support and was .17 from the actual low.           

 I use the open outcry chart to locate gaps, but I do my numbers for the electronic market as always. Open outcry is where I find the major players doing business.

Cattle: Accurate support and helpful resistance at best. I have the same thoughts and numbers as on Friday.               

New Subscribers: Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/20/10:

Cattle: Spot on resistance off .02 and accurate support numbers. Another example of the power of a gap which once again provided a good place to risk a little to make a lot if it holds. Using my normal .35 or .40 buy stop, I was never threatened being stopped out. It only took 10 minutes to watch the market break 1.00. I want to play the sell side only taking the sell signals today and risk .35 on a buy stop to protect.

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/19/10:

Spot on support off .02 but the resistance was helpful at best. What was more than helpful was my only comment for the last 2 days saying "If the market can close above 77.20, the next real resistance is the gap at 99.92".

The market is at 99.12 as I write! Any short who did not get out with Wednesday's close above 97.20 ignored the chart, and is an example of how the charts give me parameters of wrong or right, not the fundamentals.

 Results for 8/19/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .00 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .03 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .53 from the actual high; my support was .13 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.00 from the actual high; my support was 2.00 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $5.00 from the actual high; my support was $4.50 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .44 from the actual high; my support was .38 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 5 from the actual high; my support was 6 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .001 from the actual high; my support was .001 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .07 from the actual high; my support was .27 from the actual low. 

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr T Bond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea, Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 8/19/10

Aug 20, 2010

Top

This report was sent to subscribers on 8/18/10 5:59 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 8/19/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

November Soybeans

After the close recap on 8/19/10: My resistance was10.39, .00 1/4 from the actual high, and my support was 10.11, .04 1/4 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 8/20/10 have already been sent to subscribers at 7:10pm, many were sent before 4pm. 

Sign up For Free 1 Day Trail of Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas

Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers

 

soybean 8 19 10

I continue to say "Uptrend line is key support at $10.28, and (last) Thursday's high resists, and then $10.65 1/2 on the weekly chart".

I said "Notice how the uptrend acted as perfect support on Thursday. Remember, the 3rd time at a trend line is the strongest time at the line. In this case it was strong support".

November Soybeans for 8/19/10:

In my daily soybean numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .02 1/4 from the actual high; my support was .04 from the actual low.   

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. My idea for day trading the market is working well when the numbers are spot on; there is something for both bulls and bears. I did think we would see some back and fill on Wednesday which was indeed the case when the markets did pull back to test my first support numbers.

With huge export sales reported so far this week, the market is expecting big numbers Thursday morning on the weekly export sales report that comes out 2 hours before open outcry begins (and after the electronic session closes). If this number is bigger than expected, that would be the catalyst for new buying and a retest of the strong resistance at the gap at $4.47 1/2. If this happened, I would be more interested in where the market closes rather than the news itself. This is 1 of 52 reports and will be used for the "gasoline" to drive the market higher, the car is the market and the drivers buy futures contracts instead of gasoline, and when the buying dries up, so does the movement higher, like when a car runs out of gas. I am more concerned with how the market trades after the report than the report itself. If I was a bull I would want to see a bearish report (less than expected sales) and have the market test support once again and close higher, that I would consider really bullish. 

I expect the bulls will make their push to test $4.50 by Friday's close because this is their best opportunity to do so this year. We are at resistance levels so you will not see me buying except for a day trade only, and it would never be more than 1/4 the size I would want to trade if I got a sell signal. Since this is a market of perception and money flow right now, I would trade 1/2 the size of normal on the sell side until after confirmation a "top" is in place. I would risk the same as I have been, and if I lost $.06 I would not think anything except "next trade". No emotion to it. No ego in it. I know selling against a high for the last 20 months and risk $.06 in doing so is a casino bet, when the resistance does not hold I lose $.06, and when it does I am rewarded nicely, one that allows me to build another casino and let in all the players that feel "lucky" and "want to beat the odds".

If you are a bull you need not go short because if they do go higher this time you will be losing money instead of making it, but if you just take profits there, it does not matter if they go up or down, you do not have any risk and so you deserve no gain. People, who can hold their long position and it does go above $4.50, will have earned every penny they made. Look at the chart since January 2009 and you will see how much risk you had just to get another chance to make more than the $4.50, and every 6 months in that time frame we get another look at this price level no matter the fundamentals reason.

The more you read the more you know that the consensus of analysts is like reading a rainbow of colors this year. Whatever you want to read to justify your thoughts of where prices are going based on fundamental outcome; you will be able to find someone who agrees with you. Old subscribers will once again read from me saying "I do not want to be right the fundamentals and wrong the market, I would rather be right the market for all the wrong reasons". I never forget what I learned as a young trader. Being a trader for decades I have always had to manage risk, and be concerned with price and time, not trying to be right fundamentals. In 2008 when crude oil witnessed weekly bearish reports and watched the market climb to unheard of prices of $147. As I was right the bearish fundamentals, if I did not take profits on the pullback from the report, a day or two later the trades would have been losers.   

What I have been saying lately is I do not know where we will be next week let alone a month or two from now based on the fundamentals. The task no matter bull or bear is to manage risk and give you the time to be proven right or wrong. Known risk option strategies offer an easy way to do that, a futures trader finds the task more difficult, much more. And if they try and hold onto an idea that is going more against them than what they expected, they find themselves breaking many rules for successful trading, such as becoming emotional and losing more money than they were willing to make if right. I on the other hand use charts for location of where we are compared to the realities of price in the past, and use them to get numbers to trade with. Fundamentals do not prove me right or wrong, but rather the price does that for me. Yes, as long term subscribers know, I can hold an opinion for 6 months or longer, but the charts justify that. Grain charts are in bull mode but at resistance levels. I have outlined how I approach this, it is up to you to form your own plan and strategy, and faced with the task of execution of your plan. You must also have a risk reward with whatever you do, and remain unemotional.

Bottom line: Uncertainty is a bull's friend, the charts are mine. Even though some of my producers need to send margin money, the fact that they are getting or already got the hedges back and able to add money onto their original hedge is a good thing. I just got another new producer who has been with a "big name firm" for years and never heard of a way to own your crop again if the market rallies, only the pain of endless margin calls that in the past made his life more than miserable. With that being said, I hope that grains can follow through to the upside no matter the reason why. If it does great, if not they know the protection they have, and that allows the ability to sit back and see if the market can add money in their pocket and not worry if the market fails.

New Subscribers: Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

November Soybeans for 8/18/10:

Grains:  Spot on corn numbers, and accurate soybean numbers. Soybean chart remains bullish holding its uptrend line, while corn chart was unable to close above its downtrend line. We are retesting the highs from 2 weeks ago which will prove to be strong until broken. I did say in my comments for Tuesday that the uptrend line at $10.28 would be strong support and it was.

News of the SDS I talked about in my comments for 8/16/10 that I warned could become the "talk", the bulls were playing up on Tuesday with dramatic articles of 50% of Iowa farmland being affected.

Bulls also are expecting huge export numbers on Thursday.

Numbers produced the exact low in corn which was lower on the day, and when everyone is selling, my number was buying. The resistance was also spot on and served as a good place to take profits. If you have been looking for a place to sell to go short longer term, the resistance on the close paid off for those who were patient to wait for a good place to sell. Since the market was above the pivot from the opening bell, if you wanted to sell you really had no choice but to wait for the market to get near the resistance or if the market got below the pivot for 5 minutes and sell at a lower price. At least I and people who use some or all of my approach as best described in my numbers explanation trade it that way.

I want to play it from the short side today and risk $.04 in corn and $.06 in soybeans using a buy stop to protect. Even if they want to go higher, today is not the day and back and fill should be seen. Any follow through to the upside today could spell trouble for the bulls if export numbers on Thursday are not what they expect. This is a demand driven rally (strong sustainable rallies are driven by 1/2 demand and 1/2 tight supplies, but the demand part of the equation is essential) and the market is "thinking" crops are overstated. Think what you want, but NOBODY knows what crop is out there, but they do know the current demand. 

corn 8 19 10

Here is a 5 minute bar chart of December corn on 8/17/10. The low of $4.21 1/2 was made within 10 minutes of open outcry which was the low of the day and my exact pivot number. Even though the market was down $.01 1/4, my pivot said to buy because they were above the pivot. If you have time you should look at other markets 5 minute charts to review how well my numbers work, and you will observe patterns that will be helpful.

November Soybeans for 8/17/10:

Spot on numbers Monday. Remember, these numbers were sent out on Friday night, no chance of knowing the weather, exports, rainfall and so on. It does not matter to me. I am trading the chart (and charts cannot read the news or listen to reporter's chatter) and getting my numbers from them. I have an approach that is uses my numbers and charts to provide minimum risk if wrong, and a good reward when right. No matter day or longer term trading. 

That is why I laugh when I read people giving trade ideas based upon the fundamentals which are totally unknown. And even if known, will not help you in price discovery of how high or low it can go, and then again the fundamentalists would have to go to a chart for some kind of an idea where that may be. How can I make a trade idea based upon fundamentals that are unknown? I don't try.

As I have just said over the weekend, for me it is easier to day trade right now, and the only long term position I can have when at chart resistance levels, is to sell or stand aside and not buy

November Soybeans for 8/16/10:

Grains: Spot on corn numbers and accurate soybeans numbers. My idea to trade the numbers without bias is always the right thing to do when the numbers are spot on. August soybeans expired on Friday and were down $.05 on the day.

On the latest commitment of traders report (COT) out weekly, it showed that the funds bought 54.000 of corn and 14,000 contracts of soybeans in the latest week, while Index funds sold 2.000 corn and 14,000 wheat contracts. Index funds did buy 4,540 contracts across all 12 commodities. The CRB index did close 1% lower for the week led by crude oil plunging $5.31 for the week.

Weather will be the key on Sunday night and will be reflected if rain in the eastern Midwest and KS fail to provide a good drink. Market is expecting a huge crop and if this fails to materialize or the thought of a possible shortfall, end users could "pay up" and send the market to test the highs of the year. Tightening stocks amid good demand is the reason a shortfall of any size could send the market into "panic mode", but as long as the crop looks to be a good one, will cap any rally and limit the upside potential. The "what if" that could limit a rally even with a shortfall would be a meltdown in world economies, so nothing is guaranteed on supply demand alone.   

Iowa State University and U. of Wisconsin are talking up SDS or sudden death syndrome occurring in soybean fields. Losses can be up to 100% on the acreage with this condition. Keep your eye on this in places like Iowa. This happened in 2008 but they said it had less damage then than this year. Spring and June weather this year set up could be widespread in many areas. This is the first time I am reading that this is a problem, and none of my Iowa producers have even mentioned this to me, so it is a factor that could be in play soon, but not here yet. I certainly would not buy right now because of this, but it is another "what if" in the bull camp.      

Crop conditions are expected to come down on Monday's weekly crop progress report, FSU weather will be looked at closely as well as end user buying, export sales, comments from the Pro Farmer Tour which is in full swing this week, and the funds who have small gains at best for this year, and their willingness to sustain or increase their long position.

No denying the feel of the market is we are trading off of demand that seems to be increasing, and more concern that this year's crop production will not be as large as the market anticipates. Perception is what I am talking about, and that does enter into price discovery in the short term.

I have been telling you for some time that for me it is easier to take out of the market money on a daily basis rather than to try and predict direction, even where prices will be up or down in a week from now. I always want to take the path of a casino and getting the odds instead of giving them. I feel I am getting the odds by day trading the market daily than by predicting a direction that I admit is hard to do at this time. If you have been following my ideas of day trading, you can see that it is working well and is painless, rather than holding trades overnight. The $.10's add up and the $.04 and $.06 losses do not jeopardize wiping out profits. I would really like to have an opinion to hold a longer term position, but with the fundamentals being so "unknown" it is impossible for me to do at this time. I can trade technically longer term, but the markets are in bull mode at resistance levels, so if I was long I would have taken profits already and would be waiting to buy again on a pullback to support levels. This would leave me in day trading mode for now anyway.

Soybeans have held their uptrend line but are extremely overbought now and at resistance levels. Corn is holding their downtrend line and is still balanced even though on the high side, and is free to move higher if above that downtrend line, until then it is a sale against that line. I would trade the numbers without bias today and risk the same $.04 and $.06 I have been using for awhile. That seems to be enough room to allow the trade to work, and if not limits the loss if it does not hold. I have a plan, strategy, and approach that try to take advantage of chart set ups and use the fundamentals when possible for direction.

Remember, trading is gambling, and all bets are not created equal.

The only difference in speculating is that it is not a "created wager" like a horse race, game, or casino wagers, but rather one that is there for producers and end users who do nothing by hedging.  Speculators take over this risk from them. If the end users and producers do not use the market, THEY are the speculators (or gamblers) but if they hedge, the speculators take the gamble away from them and assume the gamble themselves. 

Results for 8/16/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .00 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .18 from the actual high; my support was .16 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 1.75 from the actual high; my support was 4.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $4.30 from the actual high; my support was $3.10 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .40 from the actual high; my support was .24 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 13 from the actual high; my support was 7 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .020 from the actual high; my support was .014 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .17 from the actual high; my support was .25 from the actual low. 

November Soybeans for 8/13/10:

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. High soy oil stocks due to a cut in bio diesel usage by 200 million pounds for 2010/11 were bearish. Soybeans ending stocks held unchanged from the July report at 360 million bushels (MB), while corn stocks slipped from July's 1373 MB to today's report at 1312. The average trade guess was 1307. Last year's August estimate of corn demand was off by 500 MB compared to what the Final report showed in January 2010. It was 600 MB short in 2005/06 compared to the Final report demand. They have underestimated corn demand the last 4 years. My takeaway is the market knows that demand is probably more than what was reported, and the ending stocks figures will probably be going down as time goes on. Only a larger than expected 2010 crop production figure would be the only thing to put a halt to eroding grain stocks (of course a drop off in demand would do the same).  

This is a reprint from what I wrote on 7/26/10: Last year the August report projected yields fell short of the Final report that increased by 5.4 BPA in corn and 2.3 BPA in soybeans. August to Final declines rarely decline by more than 5 BPA and most years less than 2 BPA. US soybean yields have declined in 9 of the last 17 years by .5 to 2.5 BPA. On the demand side, USDA August 2009 to July 2010 estimates of 2009/10 corn demand increased a whopping 440 million bushels. 2009/10 US soybean demand increased a hefty 120 million bushels.

Interesting to note, with the 5.4 BPA increase in corn production resulted in a $.25 break in price into September 2009 (about 9%) when the front month traded below $3. November soybeans fell $1.50 in the same period even though they posted numbers 14 million bushels below the average trade guesses, go figure? Another perfect example of why I do not trade fundamentals for price discovery. Sure you are right that the crop was 14 million lower than what the trade thought which is bullish, you were rewarded by losing money. I would rather have been short and make money rather than being right the report and lose money. It also can help you lose more than what you thought was imaginable. How can they break $1.50 on a friendly report? That is why I remind you that markets can and will do the unimaginable, and that is why I always use stops and or known risk strategies. Yes, I sometimes use stops on known risk strategies too. I have seen countless traders go broke on a trade idea. (end of copy from 7/26/10)

World wheat stocks plunged 20 MMT compared to last year, but still up 50 MMT from the 124.4 MMT low in 2007/8. China has 1/3 of the world's wheat in their bins now. Global wheat production plunged 34 MMT, shortfall of 27 MMT in FSU, and the rest in the EU and Canada.

You can read my comments from 7/1/10, and you can also read 7/19/10 and you might find helpful to read again.

Bottom line: I cannot be alone with thinking the USDA does not have it right in some of their projections. This is almost entirely true every year if you walk around the trading floor and talk to other floor traders, but this is one of the high uncertainty years. This leads to perception driving price, and my charts and numbers have always been the only tool I use for price discovery, and where that "perception" might drive the price to for me to take advantage of, no matter to take profits, or to enter a trade idea.

The unknowns are the same, 2010 production, August/September weather, Russian wheat, demand, actual acres that will be harvested, desire for the PRC to increase stocks, upcoming SA weather and planting intentions. These perceptions are the drivers for the bulls because "unknown" usually works in their favor. But like all markets, they will get to a price (maybe the recent highs) that will bring out real sellers and cap the rally. The bulls that came through the door 1 at a time to join the party, but if they hear the word "fire", will try and rush the exit which could be only 1 door, resulting in a lot of dead bulls who could not get out. I trade numbers NOT fundamentals. I have outlined my parameters clearly as to the support and resistance levels, and since this time the report was not a surprise, the chart technical levels remain the same.

Since we are nearing chart resistance levels, I am shy to buy unless for a day trade at these levels. I am comfortable to take the sell signals, but would trade only a smaller than normal contract size at this time of the year with the fundamentals being unknown. Unlike a surplus stocks situation that would give me the comfort knowing that inventory would be quick to dump on the market at the right price and would weigh on any rally, farmers are willing to sit tight unless they know they must make room for this crop. Some I am sorry to say will not fill their bins this year and some know that they need to empty them before they combine.

I want you to note and you can look on a 5 minute bar chart, after the market opened in open outcry sharply higher, the corn market plunged in the first 10 minutes to where? In December corn to $4.12 1/4 and my pivot was there at $4.12 1/2 to provide a buy signal. November soybeans opened just below their pivot and broke down to my support number of $10.11 posting a low of $10.11 1/4 in open outcry. My idea to trade without bias using $.04 and $.06 stops to protect, is another example of my trading approach of entering trades because of my numbers, that provide a minimum risk if the number does not hold, and provides a good reward when it does.

Nothing changed for me. I am not compelled to trade a longer time frame which I feel is a player giving up the "odds" instead of my approach of trying to be a casino and only trade when I feel I am getting the odds. I still feel that the market is providing a "moving target" and I want to only take an arcade "shot at the ducks" rather than go to war (with a bigger position trying to forecast where prices will be in a month or two. I want to continue to day trade using the numbers and taking into consideration where we are located on the chart in doing so. If we close above $4.50 for a couple of days, I would be a willing buyer, but until then I am a willing seller against there.

November Soybeans for 8/12/10:

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. Trading without bias provided sell signals in both markets were a good one. Position adjustments helped choppy trade before the report. No sense me talking about the debate over the next 14 days of the weather forecasts and the implications from them. Today the report comes out and the market will have a better idea of what production, supply on hand, and demand estimates that will equate to what stocks (supply) will be next year. Again I tell you that the August report numbers (as the past few) are only guesstimates and I consider them "moving targets" same as I consider prices at this time of the year, and this year more so than the vast majority. NASS's August crop report underestimated final soybean yields in 4 of the last 6 years, as well as corn 7 times in the last 9 years. They have overestimated final yield in only 6 times in the last 22 years.

That brings me right back to my charts and numbers. I am more interested in how the market reacts to the report than the report itself. Because it is perception, asset allocation, end users and producers who make up the market and whose votes are cast by what their "risk taking" or "needs" are, and are in an auction process that results in a daily price discovery that settles at a price at the end of trade that day. No matter what the bulls or bears "think", that is the reality of price at that point of time. The bulls are buying because they think too cheap, bears sell because they think too expensive, but reality is the last trade price which is NEVER wrong!

I will send out my initial thoughts and the report at 9am. The numbers should cover the day's volatility, but if there is a surprise, the parameters I have commented on recently cover it. I cannot tell you what I want to do today because of the report, but I would trade without bias using the numbers and risk the same as before using a stop to protect.

Results for 8/12/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/2 from the actual low

Corn:    My resistance was .03 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .10 from the actual high; my support was .33 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.00 from the actual high; my support was .50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $3.50 from the actual high; my support was $1.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .55 from the actual high; my support was .48 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 16 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .007 from the actual high; my support was .021 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .17 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

November Soybeans for 8/11/10:

Grains: Spot on numbers! My idea to sell the market was a good one and the stops were never in jeopardy. My support was hit near the close in soybeans and corn came within a penny of it. 

Not much to say except that this is the last day and night before the report that comes out at 7:30am Chicago time tomorrow, to adjust your position according to what you think and want to risk going into it.  

I think the market bulls were a little concerned at these levels while looking at pretty good weather the next 10 days. Going into the report the 200 day moving average at $4.02 looks like solid support as well as $4.07. The downtrend line at $4.30 is solid resistance and then $4.38 3/4, after that the major resistance remains $4.50. These numbers will be good after the report too, and the bulls want to see the market continue to close over the 200 day moving average in order to maintain control and eventually try and test $4.50.

Today I would trade my numbers without bias and risk the same $.04 in corn and $.06 in soybeans.

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

10.49                                      Double Top         

10.39                              

-------------10.31 1/4        Pivot

10.23 1/2                          

10.11                                      Support

  

Trend                          

5 day chart...       Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   ....  Up                    

Weekly chart ... Sideways           

Monthly chart    Sideways       $9.59 1/4 the 200 DMA

ATR 19 1/4         Balanced 52%  

October Cattle (elec) Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 8/16/10

Aug 16, 2010

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This report was sent to subscribers on 8/14/10 8:30 a.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 8/16/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

October Cattle (elec.)

After the close recap on 8/16/10: My resistance was 97.00, .17 from the actual high, and my support was 95.02, .25 from the actual low

Results for 8/16/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .00 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/4 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .00 3/4 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .18 from the actual high; my support was .16 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 1.75 from the actual high; my support was 4.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $4.30 from the actual high; my support was $3.10 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .40 from the actual high; my support was .24 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 13 from the actual high; my support was 7 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .020 from the actual high; my support was .014 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .17 from the actual high; my support was .25 from the actual low. 

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

All charts and numbers for 8/17/10 have already been sent to subscribers. We cannot post every market, if you are interested sign up for free & get "how I use my numbers".

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97.00                            Resistance

96.05

------------95.52       Pivot 

95.02                           Support

                    

 Use the same numbers as used on 8/ 10 & 11 & 12 /10  

Trend                       91.62 is the 200 day MA    

5 day chart.......      Down  (last week same day)                                                          

Daily chart   ......   Up                  

Weekly chart .......Up                      ATR 1.02

Monthly chart....    Sideways       Balanced 47%

 cat 8 16 10

I continue to say "Top channel line acts as resistance again, and then 97.50 resists at the top uptrend line. Key support at the bottom uptrend line".  

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/16/10:

I said "Notice how the downtrend line acted as perfect resistance on Thursday. This is another example of how the top channel uptrend line acts as resistance, while the bottom line acts as support. When the market was above the top line, it then acted as support". (Last Thursday) Notice how it acted as perfect support on Thursday.

In my daily cattle numbers on Friday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .02 from the actual high, my support was .15 from the actual low.         

Cattle: Spot on numbers. Trading without bias was a good idea once again, and with the market in the middle of the uptrend channel I want to continue to trade without bias and risk .40 on a trade idea.              

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/13/10:

Cattle: Spot on support and accurate resistance numbers. Same thoughts as yesterday when I said "Bull chart but the bears are trying to take control. I want to trade without bias and risk .40 on a trade idea".

Results for 8/12/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .03 from the actual high; my support was .00 1/2 from the actual low

Corn:    My resistance was .03 3/4 from the actual high; my support was .02 1/2 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .10 from the actual high; my support was .33 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.00 from the actual high; my support was .50 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $3.50 from the actual high; my support was $1.40 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .55 from the actual high; my support was .48 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 16 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .007 from the actual high; my support was .021 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .17 from the actual high; my support was .02 from the actual low. 

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/12/10:

Cattle: Accurate numbers. Bull chart but the bears are trying to take control. I want to trade without bias and risk .40 on a trade idea.

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/11/10:

Cattle: Spot on support and helpful resistance. With this longer term bull chart but bears are in short term control, I want to trade without bias today using the numbers and risking .40 on a trade idea.

Results for 8/10/10 were:

Soybeans: My resistance was .00 1/2 from the actual high; my support was .01 from the actual low.

Corn:    My resistance was .01 from the actual high; my support was .01 from the actual low. 

Crude Oil: My resistance was .26 from the actual high; my support was .37 from the actual low.

S&P:    My resistance was 3.75 from the actual high; my support was 8.25 from the actual low. 

Gold:     My resistance was $3.60 from the actual high; my support was $3.80 from the actual low. 

Euro:    My resistance was .14 from the actual high; my support was .19 from the actual low. 

Bonds: My resistance was 8 from the actual high; my support was 5 from the actual low. 

Nat. Gas: My resistance was .026 from the actual high; my support was .033 from the actual low.   

Cattle:  My resistance was .32 from the actual high; my support was .12 from the actual low. 

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/10/10:

Cattle: Spot on resistance and accurate support. Taking the sell idea was a good one especially with the resistance number and chart so helpful. This is a bull chart but $1 is a solid resistance number. I would cautiously trade the numbers without bias but only risk .35 on a trade idea.

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/9/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers off .05 on the resistance (2 ticks) and off .10 on the support. Idea to trade the numbers without bias always works well when the numbers are spot on. I want to only take the sell signals today and risk .40 on the trade idea. I do not want to take the buy signals when near long term chart resistances.

New Subscribers: Keep in mind that these are day trading numbers. They are equally to be used for swing trading and longer term trading time frames on the day I want to enter or exit my position. The charts are to be used for overall trade location looking for areas of price discovery of support and resistance levels. When the market does go to the charts longer term support or resistance levels such as bracket lines or longer term trend lines, I use my numbers on that day to enter or exit my position. The numbers do not tell you what to do, you are in control of that, but they will give you a framework to try and buy or sell at the best price for that day. For me it gives me a strategy and the best way I have found to discover the best price for entering or exiting my trade ideas.

If I have the exact numbers for the actual high and low of the day 12 hours in advance, the question has always been, how do I trade it? That is what I best describe in my numbers explanation. Any intuitiveness or nuances I trade, I would keep a journal to see if it is worthwhile overriding my plan. I rarely go against my explanation

October Cattle (elec.) for 8/6/10:

Cattle: Spot on numbers off .10 on the support and also the resistance number. Idea to only take the sell was a good one, and the trade I left on the table being the buy was a good one too. I have no bias today and would risk only .35 on a trade idea.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 9 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, Euro FX, 30 yr T Bond, Gold, and  Natural Gas and Cattle.

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea, Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 9 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

 HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

 

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www.howardtyllas.com          

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           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

WASDA Report 8/12/10

Aug 12, 2010

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WASDE Report 8/12/10

 ISSN: 1554-9089

 WASDE - 485     August 12, 2010

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WHEAT:  U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are lowered this month as higher expected exports more than offset an increase in forecast production and lower projected feed and residual use. Production is forecast 49 million bushels higher mostly reflecting higher yields for durum and other spring wheat,especially in the Northern Plains.  Winter wheat production is also raised slightly as higher yields in the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest more than offset reductions in the eastern Corn Belt.  Feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels as rising values have priced wheat out of feed rations.  Exports are projected 200 million bushels higher with declines in foreign production, particularly in the FSU-12, reducing global supplies and making U.S. wheat competitive in key Middle East and North Africa markets.  U.S. ending stocks are projected 141 million bushels lower from last month, and down 21 million from 2009/10.  The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range.

Several changes are made to U.S. supply and use estimates for 2009/10 based on the latest U.S. Bureau of Census trade and mill grind data and revisions.  Exports are raised 16 million bushels and imports are raised 4 million bushels.  Food use is lowered 3 million bushels.  Thus, feed and residual is estimated 10 million bushels lower.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are reduced sharply with world production lowered 15.3 million tons, mostly on reductions for FSU-12 and EU-27 countries.  Production for Russia is lowered 8.0 million tons as continued extreme drought and record heat during July and early August have further reduced summer crop prospects.  Kazakhstan production is lowered 2.5 million tons reflecting the same adverse weather conditions as in Russia.  Ukraine production is lowered 3.0 million tons as heavy summer rains damaged maturing crops and hampered harvesting in western and southern growing areas.  Harvest results also support indications that producers reduced input use in response to limits on available capital.  EU-27 production is lowered 4.3 million tons with yields reduced for northwestern Europe on untimely heat and dryness.  Yields are lowered for southeastern Europe as heavy rains from the same weather pattern that affected Ukraine reduced output.  Production is also lowered for Algeria, Brazil, Uruguay, Belarus, and Croatia. Partially offsetting are increases for India, the United States, Australia, and Uzbekistan.

World wheat imports and exports are reduced sharply as tighter supplies and higher prices reduce projected global consumption. Imports are projected 5.7 million tons lower as higher prices reduce demand in a number of countries.  Exports are lowered 12.0 million tons for Russia partly reflecting the recent announcement banning exports through December.  Also limiting Russia export prospects is higher expected wheat feeding with drought-reduced forage and coarse grain crops and policy goals aimed at increasing domestic meat production. 

Exports for Kazakhstan and Ukraine are lowered 2.0 million tons each with sharply lower production.  Higher exports from other countries partly offset FSU-12 declines.  Exports are raised 1.2 million tons for China, 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27, and 0.9 million tons for Turkey.  The 5.4-million-ton increase projected for U.S. exports is expected to offset the largest share of the decline from FSU-12.  Global ending stocks are projected 12.3 million tons lower.  At 174.8 million tons, world stocks are projected 49.9 million tons higher than in 2007/08 when prices soared to record levels.

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are raised this month as higher forecast production for corn and sorghum more than offset lower corn carryin. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 52 million bushels lower reflecting higher expected exports, corn use for sweeteners and

starch, and a small reduction in projected imports for 2009/10. Corn production for 2010/11 is forecast 120 million bushels higher.  The survey-based yield forecast of 165.0 bushels per acre is up 1.5 bushels from last month's projection and 0.3 bushels above last year's record.

Domestic corn use for 2010/11 is raised 30 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher as tighter foreign supplies of wheat and coarse grains raise prospects for U.S. corn shipments.  Despite higher production, ending stocks are projected down 61 million bushels at 1.3 billion, the lowest in 4 years.  The season-average farm price is raised 5 cents on each end of the range to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel.  Similar price increases are projected for the other feed grains.

Other 2010/11 feed grains changes include higher sorghum and barley production with higher forecast yields.  Sorghum feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels higher with larger supplies.  Sorghum exports are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected demand from Mexico. 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected 10.6 million tons lower with reduced foreign production more than offsetting higher U.S. output.  More than half of the reduction in foreign coarse grain production is for barley.  Barley production is lowered 3.0 million tons for Russia as extended drought and extreme heat sharply reduce yield potential for spring barley. EU-27 barley production is lowered 1.5 million tons on untimely dryness and heat in northwest Europe and excessive rains in eastern Europe.  Barley production is lowered 1.5 million tons for Ukraine, 0.6 million tons for Algeria, and 0.5 million tons for Kazakhstan.  Global corn production is lowered 0.8 million tons with Russia and Ukraine each lowered 1.5 million tons and EU-27 lowered 1.0 million tons.  These reductions more than offset higher production in the United States.  Global rye and oats production are lowered 1.3 million tons and 0.7 million tons,respectively, on reductions for Russia, EU-27, and Ukraine.

Global coarse grain imports are raised this month with increases for corn in China, EU-27, South Korea, and Israel, supporting higher expected corn feeding in each country.  In EU-27, South Korea, and Israel, corn is expected to replace higher priced wheat in feed rations.  Barley feeding is also raised for EU-27 replacing wheat.  By contrast, coarse grain feeding is lowered 3.7 million tons for Russia with wheat expected to partly replace barley, corn, oats, and rye in livestock and poultry feeding. Offsetting reduced coarse grain exports from Ukraine and Russia are higher barley exports from EU-27 and Australia and higher corn exports from the United States.  Global coarse grain ending stocks are lowered 8.1 million tons with corn ending stocks down 1.9 million.  EU-27 barley ending stocks are down 4.0 million tons accounting for most of the rest.  Coarse grain and corn ending stocks are both expected to remain well above their recent lows in 2006/07.

RICE:  U.S. total rice supplies for 2010/11 are projected at a record 299.8 million cwt, down 9.6 million from last month, but up 29.9 million from the previous year.  Beginning stocks, imports, and production are lowered from a month ago.  U.S. beginning stocks for 2010/11 are lowered 4.5 million cwt to 33.9 million because of changes made to the 2009/10 supply and use balance.  USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2010/11 U.S. rice crop is a record 245.9 million cwt, down 4.1 million from last month's projection, but up 26.0 million from 2009/10. Average yield is forecast at 7,039 pounds per acre, down 118 pounds per acre from last month's trend-based projection, and a

decrease of 46 pounds per acre from last year.  Area harvested at 3.5 million acres is unchanged from a month ago.  Long-grain production is forecast at a record 187.2 million cwt, down 2.8 million from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.6 million, down 1.4 million from a month ago.  The import projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 20.0 million based mostly on the revised estimate for 2009/10, indicating slower growth.

U.S. total rice use for 2010/11 is projected at a record 243.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month, and an increase of 7.0 million from 2009/10.  Domestic and residual use is unchanged from last month.  The export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt from last month to 114.0 million based mostly on large food aid announcements for shipment early in the marketing year.  The makeup of the export projection is changed from last month, as the combined milled- and brown-rice export projection is raised 5.0 million cwt, and the rough rice export projection is lowered 4.0 million cwt.  The long-grain export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 80.0 million, and the combined medium- and short-grain estimate is unchanged from a month ago.  U.S. rice ending stocks for 2010/11 are estimated at 56.8 million cwt, down 10.6 million from last month, but up 22.9 million from the previous year, and the highest stocks since 1985/86.  The all rice and by-class prices for 2010/11 are unchanged from a month ago.

The U.S. 2009/10 export estimate is raised 4.0 million cwt to 109.0 million based on U.S. Census data through June and U.S. Export Sales data through July 29.  Long-grain exports are raised 2.5 million cwt to 74.5 million, and combined medium-and short-grain exports are raised 1.5 million to a record 34.5 million.  Additionally, the 2009/10 import estimate is lowered 0.5

million cwt to 19.5 million, based on Census data through June. The changes in 2009/10 trade led to a corresponding reduction in 2009/10 ending stocks. 

Projected global 2010/11 total supplies are raised from a month ago primarily due to an increase in beginning stocks, while production and imports are nearly the same as last month.  The increase in beginning stocks of 5.5 million tons is due primarily to an increase in India's 2009/10 rice crop combined with a reduction in estimated domestic and residual use-both estimates are based on a recently received report from the Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi.  India's 2009/10 rice crop is estimated at 89.1 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month, and domestic consumption and residual is estimated at 85.4 million, down 3.9 million from the July estimate.  Global rice production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 459.2 million tons, nearly the same as a month ago.  Global consumption is raised from a month ago largely due to an increase for India. World ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 97.5 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month, largely the result of upward revisions for Bangladesh, Burma, India, and Turkey.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 103.3 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month as higher soybean and cottonseed production are only partly offset by lower peanut production.  Soybean yields are forecast at 44.0 bushels per acre, 1.1 bushels above last month=s trend yield projection, and equal to last year=s record yield.  The first survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is a record 3.4 billion bushels, 88 million above the July projection, and 74 million above last year=s crop.  Projected soybean exports are raised 65 million bushels to 1.435 billion.  The sharp increase in exports reflects strong export sales, especially to China, stronger projected import demand for China, and reduced soybean stocks in South America at the beginning of the 2010/11 marketing year.  China soybean imports are raised to 49.5 and 52 million tons, respectively for 2009/10 and 2010/11.  Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting a small increase in domestic soybean meal demand.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 360 million bushels, unchanged from July.

Soybean and product prices all increased this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.50 to $10.00, up 40 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $250 to $290 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 36.5 to 40.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 439.7 million tons, down 1 million from last month.  Reductions for sunflower seed and rapeseed are mostly offset by higher soybean production.  Sunflower seed production is reduced by 1 million tons each for Russia and Ukraine.  Persistent drought and excessive heat in July and early August sharply reduced yield potential for both countries.  Rapeseed production is reduced for EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.  Higher global soybean production reflects the larger U.S. crop.  Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia, lower sunflower seed production in EU-27, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and increased cottonseed production for India.

U.S. changes for 2009/10 include increased soybean crush and exports and lower ending stocks.  Crush is raised 5 million bushels to 1.75 billion reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance.  Soybean exports are increased 10 million to a record 1.47 billion bushels.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 15 million from last month.  Soybean oil ending stocks are raised to 3.18 billion pounds reflecting sharply lower projected use for methyl ester production.

SUGAR:  Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is increased 506,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.  Production is increased 100,000 tons due to higher than expected forecast U.S. sugar beet yields.  Imports are increased 185,000 tons to reflect lower tariff rate quota (TRQ) shortfall and the announced refined specialty sugar quota.  Sugar use is increased 200,000 tons in line with the increase for 2009/10.

For 2009/10, U.S. supplies are increased 341,000 tons, due to higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.  Beginning stocks are increased 35,000 tons due to revisions in Sweetener Market Data.  Cane sugar production is increased 6,000 tons based on processor reports.  Imports are increased 300,000 tons: 50,000 tons less TRQ shortfall, 50,000 tons more re-export imports, and 200,000 tons from Mexico and high-tier imports. These import increases are driven by tight U.S. supplies.  Total use is increased 120,000 tons, reflecting revised estimates in Sweetener Market Data.  Ending stocks are increased 221,000 tons.For Mexico, 2010/11 ending stocks are lowered 95,000 metric tons, raw value, due to lower beginning stocks.  Mexico's 2009/10 production is decreased slightly while exports are increased 90,000 tons; sugar use is unchanged.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are reduced slightly from last month.  Beef production for 2010 is reduced on slightly lower estimated second quarter output and forecast lighter average carcass weights in the third quarter that more than offset slightly higher slaughter.  For 2011, beef production is unchanged but is shifted between quarters as more cattle are expected to be marketed in the first part of the year.  Pork production in late 2010 and 2011 is reduced on lower expected imports of live swine from Canada.  Broiler meat and turkey

production for 2010 reflects slightly higher estimated second quarter production.  Forecast poultry meat production for the remainder of 2010 and 2011 is unchanged.  Cattle, hog, and poultry prices are little changed from last month.

Beef imports are raised for 2010 based on the current pace of imports and weakening domestic cow slaughter.  Export forecasts for beef, pork, and broilers are raised, partly reflecting strong recent shipments.  Stronger demand from a number of markets is expected to support higher exports through the remainder of this year and into next year. 

Forecast milk production for 2010 and 2011 is raised from last month.  Producers continue to add cows to the herd and the rate of growth in milk per cow has increased.  Exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised sharply as June exports were strong, global supplies remain relatively tight, and demand in a number of markets is expected to support higher than previously forecast sales.  However, sales in 2011 will be dampened by increased competition.

Strong demand for butter and cheese resulted in higher forecast prices for 2010 but the prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey are lowered from last month.  The Class III price forecast for 2010 is raised as the higher cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price, but the Class IV price forecast is reduced as the lower NDM price more than offsets the higher butter

price.  For 2011, cheese, NDM, and whey price forecasts are reduced but butter is raised.  For 2011, the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lowered.  The all milk price is forecast to average $15.90 to $16.10 per cwt for 2010 and $15.55 to $16.55 per cwt for 2011.

COTTON:  The 2010/11 U.S. cotton forecast shows higher production and exports compared with last month, resulting in lower ending stocks.  Production is raised 234,000 bales, as the first survey-based forecast indicates lower abandonment, more than offsetting a reduction in yield.  Exports are raised 700,000 bales to 15.0 million based on larger supplies and higher foreign import demand.  The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is raised 1 cent on each end of the range to 61 to 75 cents per pound.

With largely offsetting increases in world production and consumption, a reduction in world 2010/11 beginning stocks is reflected in ending stocks.  World beginning stocks are lowered 3.4 million bales from last month, including reductions for China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, and Australia, partially offset by an increase for the United States.  Production is raised for India, the United States, Turkey, and Australia, but is reduced 7 percent for Pakistan due to estimated losses from floods.  World consumption is raised to nearly 121 million bales, 2.7 percent above last season, with increases from last month mainly in China and Turkey.  With lower beginning stocks and higher consumption, this month's China imports are raised 850,000 bales, accounting for about three-fourths of the 1.2 million-bale increase in world imports.  Exports are higher mainly in India and the United States.  World ending stocks are now projected at 45.6 million bales.  If realized, the stocks-to-use ratio of 38 percent would be the smallest since 1994/95.

This month's estimates include historical adjustments in supply and use for India and Pakistan.  China's 2009/10 consumption is raised 1.0 million bales based on recent indications of higher offtake.

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-8                    August 2010

 

                 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/

                              Million Metric Tons

===============================================================================

                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending

     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                         World

Total grains 3/       :

      2008/09         :  2,240.91   2,610.13     285.37    2,159.92    450.21

      2009/10 (Est.)  :  2,226.48   2,676.69     278.28    2,199.90    476.79

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :  2,237.90   2,709.13     276.57    2,245.29    463.84

            August    :  2,212.81   2,689.60     271.15    2,245.28    444.32

Wheat                 :

      2008/09         :    683.26     808.13     143.41      642.62    165.51

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    680.30     845.80     132.23      651.84    193.97

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    661.07     854.08     131.28      667.04    187.05

            August    :    645.73     839.70     124.67      664.94    174.76

Coarse grains 4/      :

      2008/09         :  1,109.62   1,273.36     112.99    1,079.53    193.84

      2009/10 (Est.)  :  1,103.57   1,297.41     115.93    1,109.55    187.86

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :  1,117.55   1,306.33     113.81    1,126.15    180.18

            August    :  1,107.91   1,295.77     114.97    1,123.72    172.04

Rice, milled          :

      2008/09         :    448.03     528.64      28.97      437.77     90.86

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    442.61     533.48      30.12      438.51     94.97

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    459.28     548.72      31.48      452.11     96.61

            August    :    459.17     554.13      31.51      456.62     97.52

                      :

                      :                     United States

Total grains 3/       :

      2008/09         :    400.28     461.70      81.58      314.23     65.89

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    416.45     488.49      82.05      338.25     68.19

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    418.85     494.14      84.10      339.62     70.42

            August    :    424.00     497.79      92.37      340.49     64.94

Wheat                 :

      2008/09         :     68.02      79.80      27.64       34.29     17.87

      2009/10 (Est.)  :     60.31      81.41      23.98       30.94     26.49

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :     60.30      89.52      27.22       32.55     29.75

            August    :     61.64      90.85      32.66       32.28     25.92

Coarse grains 4/      :

      2008/09         :    325.87     373.98      50.94      275.98     47.06

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    349.22     398.58      54.64      303.31     40.63

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    350.74     394.94      53.36      303.02     38.57

            August    :    354.68     397.56      56.15      304.16     37.25

Rice, milled          :

      2008/09         :      6.40       7.93       3.00        3.96      0.96

      2009/10 (Est.)  :      6.92       8.50       3.43        4.00      1.07

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :      7.81       9.68       3.53        4.05      2.11

            August    :      7.68       9.38       3.56        4.05      1.77

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Based on export estimate.  See

individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.  3/

Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice.  4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,

millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-9                    August 2010

 

              World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/

                              Million Metric Tons

===============================================================================

                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending

     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                         Foreign 3/

Total grains 4/       :

      2008/09         :  1,840.63   2,148.42     203.79    1,845.68    384.32

      2009/10 (Est.)  :  1,810.03   2,188.20     196.23    1,861.65    408.60

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :  1,819.05   2,214.99     192.47    1,905.67    393.42

            August    :  1,788.82   2,191.81     178.78    1,904.79    379.39

Wheat                 :

      2008/09         :    615.24     728.33     115.78      608.33    147.64

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    619.98     764.39     108.25      620.89    167.48

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    600.76     764.57     104.06      634.49    157.30

            August    :    584.09     748.85      92.01      632.66    148.85

Coarse grains 5/      :

      2008/09         :    783.76     899.38      62.05      803.55    146.78

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    754.35     898.82      61.28      806.24    147.22

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    766.81     911.39      60.45      823.13    141.62

            August    :    753.23     898.21      58.83      819.56    134.80

Rice, milled          :

      2008/09         :    441.63     520.71      25.96      433.81     89.91

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    435.70     524.98      26.69      434.51     93.90

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    451.47     539.03      27.95      448.06     94.51

            August    :    451.49     544.75      27.94      452.57     95.74

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Based on export estimate.  See

individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.   3/

Total foreign is equal to world minus United States.   4/ Wheat, coarse grains

and milled rice.  5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed

grains.

 

 

 

                     World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/

                                 Million 480-lb. bales

===============================================================================

                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending

     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                         World

      2008/09         :    107.16     167.84      30.11      109.94     60.53

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    102.15     162.68      35.65      117.71     47.58

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    116.02     167.00      37.02      119.70     49.91

            August    :    116.85     164.43      38.24      120.87     45.61

                      :                     United States

      2008/09         :     12.82      22.87      13.28        3.59      6.34

      2009/10 (Est.)  :     12.19      18.53      12.00        3.40      3.10

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :     18.30      21.20      14.30        3.40      3.50

            August    :     18.53      21.64      15.00        3.40      3.20

                      :                        Foreign 3/

      2008/09         :     94.34     144.98      16.83      106.35     54.20

      2009/10 (Est.)  :     89.96     144.16      23.65      114.31     44.48

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :     97.72     145.80      22.72      116.30     46.41

            August    :     98.32     142.79      23.24      117.47     42.41

===============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.  2/ Based on export estimate.  3/  Total

Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for

treatment of export/import imbalances.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-10                    August 2010

 

                 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :           :   Total   :        :   Total   :  Ending

     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  :  Trade :    Use 2/ :  Stocks

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                         World

Oilseeds              :

      2008/09         :    396.37     458.03     94.48      338.32     56.34

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    441.20     497.54    104.97      355.50     74.28

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    440.74     516.67    103.78      370.03     77.32

            August    :    439.74     514.02    104.92      371.00     73.83

Oilmeals              :

      2008/09         :    228.59     236.37     69.27      227.95      5.93

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    242.31     248.25     72.59      238.21      6.17

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    251.76     258.23     74.47      247.80      6.83

            August    :    253.27     259.44     74.83      249.48      6.46

Vegetable Oils        :

      2008/09         :    133.38     144.66     55.81      130.45     12.61

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    139.06     151.67     57.75      137.61     11.45

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    146.48     157.84     60.58      144.44     11.94

            August    :    146.14     157.59     60.18      144.19     11.46

                      :

                      :                     United States

Oilseeds              :

      2008/09         :     89.20      97.41     35.69       49.34      5.62

      2009/10 (Est.)  :     98.90     105.60     40.93       51.40      5.82

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    100.78     107.91     38.53       49.02     11.32

            August    :    103.34     110.04     40.31       49.28     11.32

Oilmeals              :

      2008/09         :     37.71      39.86      7.95       31.67      0.25

      2009/10 (Est.)  :     39.87      41.37     10.64       30.39      0.33

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :     37.90      40.04      8.33       31.38      0.33

            August    :     38.03      40.18      8.33       31.51      0.33

Vegetable Oils        :

      2008/09         :      9.67      14.36      1.46       11.17      1.74

      2009/10 (Est.)  :     10.00      14.98      1.87       11.32      1.79

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :      9.70      14.63      1.30       11.86      1.47

            August    :      9.75      14.81      1.30       11.94      1.56

                      :

                      :                      Foreign 3/

Oilseeds              :

      2008/09         :    307.17     360.63     58.78      288.98     50.72

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    342.30     391.94     64.04      304.11     68.46

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    339.96     408.77     65.24      321.00     66.00

            August    :    336.40     403.98     64.61      321.72     62.52

Oilmeals              :

      2008/09         :    190.87     196.52     61.32      196.28      5.69

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    202.45     206.88     61.95      207.82      5.84

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    213.86     218.19     66.14      216.42      6.50

            August    :    215.24     219.26     66.50      217.97      6.12

Vegetable Oils        :

      2008/09         :    123.72     130.30     54.35      119.28     10.87

      2009/10 (Est.)  :    129.06     136.70     55.88      126.30      9.66

      2010/11 (Proj.) :

              July    :    136.78     143.21     59.28      132.58     10.47

            August    :    136.39     142.79     58.88      132.25      9.90

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an

Oct.-Sept. year.  2/ Crush only for oilseeds.  3/ Total foreign is equal to

world minus United States.

 

 

 

 

                                  WASDE-485-11                    August 2010

 

                           U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/

===============================================================================

                            :         :         :      2010/11  Projections

        Item                : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :==============================

                            :         :   Est.  :        July          August

===============================================================================

Area                        :               Million acres

 Planted                    :   63.2       59.1          54.3            54.3

 Harvested                  :   55.7       49.9          48.3            48.3

Yield per harvested         :                   Bushels

    acre                    :   44.9       44.4          45.9            46.9

                            :             Million bushels

Beginning stocks            :    306        657           973             973

Production                  :  2,499      2,216         2,216           2,265

Imports                     :    127        119           100             100

  Supply, total             :  2,932      2,991         3,289           3,338

Food                        :    927        917           940             940

Seed                        :     78         70            76              76

Feed and residual           :    255        149           180             170

  Domestic, total           :  1,260      1,137         1,196           1,186

Exports                     :  1,015        881         1,000           1,200

  Use, total                :  2,275      2,018         2,196           2,386

Ending stocks               :    657        973         1,093             952

  CCC inventory             :      0          0

  Free stocks               :    657        973

    Outstanding loans       :     27         51

Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/   :   6.78       4.87    4.20- 5.00      4.70- 5.50

===============================================================================

                           

                       U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use

===============================================================================

   Year beginning           :  Hard  :   Hard  :  Soft  :       :       :     

     June 1                 : Winter :  Spring :  Red   : White : Durum : Total

===============================================================================

2009/10 (estimated)         :                Million bushels

Beginning stocks            :    254       142     171       64      25     657

Production                  :    919       548     404      237     109   2,216

  Supply, total 3/          :  1,175       731     607      310     169   2,991

Domestic use                :    420       282     256       88      90   1,137

Exports                     :    370       214     109      143      44     881

  Use, total                :    790       497     366      231     134   2,018

Ending stocks, total        :    385       234     241       79      35     973

                            :

2010/11 (projected)         :

Beginning stocks            :    385       234     241       79      35     973

Production                  :  1,029       593     260      274     109   2,265

  Supply, total 3/          :  1,415       862     521      362     178   3,338

Domestic use                :    491       263     242      106      84   1,186

Exports                     :    545       340     100      160      55   1,200

  Use, total                :  1,036       603     342      266     139   2,386

  Ending stocks, total      :

                    August  :    379       259     179       96      39     952

                      July  :    476       333     162       88      34   1,093

===============================================================================

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.

2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.  3/ Includes

imports.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-12                    August 2010

 

                 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/

===============================================================================

                            :         :         :      2010/11  Projections

        Item                : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :==============================

                            :         :   Est.  :        July          August

===============================================================================

FEED GRAINS                 :

Area                        :               Million acres

 Planted                    :  101.8      100.1         100.0 *         100.0

 Harvested                  :   91.0       89.6          90.0 *          90.0

Yield per harvested         :                Metric tons

     acre                   :   3.58       3.90          3.89            3.94

                            :             Million metric tons

Beginning stocks            :   45.1       47.0          41.9            40.6

Production                  :  325.7      349.0         350.6           354.5

Imports                     :    3.0        2.2           2.1             2.1

  Supply, total             :  373.7      398.3         394.6           397.2

Feed and residual           :  140.9      146.9         141.6           141.9

Food, seed & industrial     :  134.8      156.2         161.2           161.9

  Domestic, total           :  275.7      303.0         302.7           303.9

Exports                     :   50.9       54.6          53.4            56.1

  Use, total                :  326.6      357.7         356.1           360.0

Ending stocks, total        :   47.0       40.6          38.5            37.2

  CCC inventory             :    0.0        0.0

  Free stocks               :   47.0       40.6

    Outstanding loans       :    4.4        4.6

                            :

CORN                        :

Area                        :               Million acres

 Planted                    :   86.0       86.5          87.9 *          87.9

 Harvested                  :   78.6       79.6          81.0 *          81.0

Yield per harvested         :                  Bushels

    acre                    :  153.9      164.7         163.5 *         165.0

                            :               Million bushels

Beginning stocks            :  1,624      1,673         1,478           1,426

Production                  : 12,092     13,110        13,245          13,365

Imports                     :     14          8            10              10

  Supply, total             : 13,729     14,791        14,733          14,802

Feed and residual           :  5,182      5,525         5,350           5,350

Food, seed & industrial     :  5,025      5,865         6,060           6,090

 Ethanol for fuel 2/        :  3,709      4,500         4,700           4,700

  Domestic, total           : 10,207     11,390        11,410          11,440

Exports                     :  1,849      1,975         1,950           2,050

  Use, total                : 12,056     13,365        13,360          13,490

Ending stocks, total        :  1,673      1,426         1,373           1,312

  CCC inventory             :      0          0

  Free stocks               :  1,673      1,426

    Outstanding loans       :    171        175

Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/   :   4.06 3.50- 3.60    3.45- 4.05      3.50- 4.10

===============================================================================

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning

September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats.  2/ For a further

breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5,

or Feed Grains Database at "www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains." 3/ Marketing-year

weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and

harvested of corn as reported in June 30, 2010, "Acreage" report. Projected

corn yield based on the simple linear trend of the national average yield for

1990-2009 adjusted for 2010 planting progress.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-13                    August 2010

 

               U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/

===============================================================================

                            :         :         :      2010/11  Projections

         Item               : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :==============================

                            :         :   Est.  :        July          August

===============================================================================

                            :               Million bushels

SORGHUM                     :

Area planted (mil. acres)   :    8.3        6.6           6.0 *           6.0

Area harv. (mil. acres)     :    7.3        5.5           5.2 *           5.2

Yield (bushels/acre)        :   65.0       69.4          67.6 *          74.1

Beginning stocks            :     53         55            28              28

Production                  :    472        383           350             383

Imports                     :      0          0             0               0

   Supply, total            :    525        438           378             411

Feed and residual           :    233        140           105             120

Food, seed & industrial     :     95        100           100             100

   Total domestic           :    328        240           205             220

Exports                     :    143        170           140             150

   Use, total               :    471        410           345             370

Ending stocks, total        :     55         28            33              41

Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/   :   3.20 3.10- 3.20    3.15- 3.75      3.20- 3.80

                            :

BARLEY                      :

Area planted (mil. acres)   :    4.2        3.6           3.0 *           3.0

Area harv. (mil. acres)     :    3.8        3.1           2.5 *           2.5

Yield (bushels/acre)        :   63.6       73.0          71.6 *          72.3

Beginning stocks            :     68         89           115             115

Production                  :    240        227           182             184

Imports                     :     29         17            15              15

   Supply, total            :    337        333           312             314

Feed and residual           :     67         48            50              50

Food, seed & industrial     :    169        164           165             165

   Total domestic           :    236        212           215             215

Exports                     :     13          6            10              10

   Use, total               :    249        218           225             225

Ending stocks, total        :     89        115            87              89

Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/   :   5.37       4.66    3.50- 4.10      3.55- 4.15

                            :

OATS                        :

Area planted (mil. acres)   :    3.2        3.4           3.2 *           3.2

Area harv. (mil. acres)     :    1.4        1.4           1.3 *           1.3

Yield (bushels/acre)        :   63.7       67.5          66.7 *          66.3

Beginning stocks            :     67         84            80              80

Production                  :     89         93            88              87

Imports                     :    115         95            90              90

   Supply, total            :    270        272           258             258

Feed and residual           :    108        115           115             115

Food, seed & industrial     :     75         75            76              76

   Total domestic           :    183        190           191             191

Exports                     :      3          2             3               3

   Use, total               :    186        192           194             194

Ending stocks, total        :     84         80            64              64

Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/   :   3.15       2.02    2.10- 2.70      2.15- 2.75

===============================================================================

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning

September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats.  2/ Marketing-year

weighted average price received by farmers.  *  For July:  Sorghum area planted

and area harvested as reported in the June 30, 2010, "Acreage" report.  Sorghum

projected yield derived from the 2000-2009 average yield, excluding 2002 and

2003, adjusted to reflect adequate to abundant soil moisture in the southern

and central Plains.  Barley and oats area planted, area harvested, yield, and

production as reported in the July 9, 2010, "Crop Production" report.

 

 

 

 

 

                                  WASDE-485-14                    August 2010

 

                          U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/

                 (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)

===============================================================================

                            :         :         :      2010/11  Projections

        Item                : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :==============================

                            :         :   Est.  :        July          August

===============================================================================

TOTAL                       :

Area                        :               Million acres

 Planted                    :   3.00       3.14          3.51 *          3.51

 Harvested                  :   2.98       3.10          3.49 *          3.49

Yield per harvested         :                    Pounds

   acre                     :  6,846      7,085         7,157 *         7,039

                            :

                            :            Million hundredweight

 Beginning stocks 2/        :   29.6       30.6          38.4            33.9

 Production                 :  203.7      219.9         250.0           245.9

 Imports                    :   19.2       19.5          21.0            20.0

   Supply, total            :  252.6      269.9         309.4           299.8

 Domestic & residual 3/     :  126.4      127.0         129.0           129.0

 Exports, total 4/          :   95.6      109.0         113.0           114.0

  Rough                     :   31.6       40.0          47.0            43.0

  Milled (rough equiv.)     :   64.0       69.0          66.0            71.0

   Use, total               :  222.0      236.0         242.0           243.0

 Ending stocks              :   30.6       33.9          67.4            56.8

 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/  :  69.25      69.36         68.86           68.86

 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ :  16.80      14.00   10.75-11.75     10.75-11.75

                            :

LONG GRAIN                  :

 Harvested acres (mil.)     :   2.35       2.27

 Yield (pounds/acre)        :  6,522      6,743

 Beginning stocks           :   19.1       20.1          24.3            21.3

 Production                 :  153.3      152.7         190.0           187.2

   Supply, total 7/         :  188.2      189.8         232.3           226.1

 Domestic & Residual 3/     :   99.4       94.0          99.0            99.0

 Exports 8/                 :   68.8       74.5          79.0            80.0

   Use, total               :  168.1      168.5         178.0           179.0

 Ending stocks              :   20.1       21.3          54.3            47.1

 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ :  14.90      12.80    9.00-10.00      9.00-10.00

                            :

MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN        :

 Harvested acres (mil.)     :   0.63       0.84

 Yield (pounds/acre)        :  8,063      8,010

 Beginning stocks           :    9.1        8.0          11.7            10.2

 Production                 :   50.5       67.1          60.0            58.6

   Supply, total 7/         :   61.9       77.7          74.7            71.3

 Domestic & Residual 3/     :   27.0       33.0          30.0            30.0

 Exports 8/                 :   26.9       34.5          34.0            34.0

   Use, total               :   53.9       67.5          64.0            64.0

 Ending stocks              :    8.0       10.2          10.7             7.3

 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ :  24.80      17.80   17.00-18.00     17.00-18.00

===============================================================================

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning August

1.  2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type

undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.

cwt):  2008/09-1.4; 2009/10-2.4; 2010/11-2.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported

use, processing losses, and estimating errors.  Use by type may not add to

total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and

ending stocks.  4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports.  Milled rice

exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis.  5/ Expressed as a

percent-- the national average milling yield calculated by the Farm Service

Agency (FSA) from warehouse stored loan data. The 2010/11 milling yield is

calculated using the previous five-year average.  6/ Includes imports.  7/

Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.  8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated.  * For July: Area planted and area harvested as

reported in June 30, 2010, "Acreage" report.  Projected yield is derived from

the trend yields by rice class for the period, 1990-2009.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-15                    August 2010

 

        U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/

===============================================================================

                           :         :         :      2010/11  Projections

        Item               : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :===============================

                           :         :   Est.  :        July          August

===============================================================================

SOYBEANS:                  :               Million acres

Area                       :                           

  Planted                  :   75.7       77.5          78.9*           78.9

  Harvested                :   74.7       76.4          78.0*           78.0

                           :

                           :                   Bushels

Yield per harvested        :

    acre                   :   39.7       44.0          42.9*           44.0

                           :

                           :             Million bushels

                           :

Beginning stocks           :    205        138           175             160

Production                 :  2,967      3,359         3,345           3,433

Imports                    :     13         15            10              10

  Supply, total            :  3,185      3,512         3,530           3,603

Crushings                  :  1,662      1,750         1,645           1,650

Exports                    :  1,279      1,470         1,370           1,435

Seed                       :     90         92            88              88

Residual                   :     16         41            67              70

  Use, total               :  3,047      3,353         3,170           3,243

Ending stocks              :    138        160           360             360

Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/  :   9.97       9.60    8.10- 9.60     8.50 -10.00

                           :

                           :

                           :               Million pounds

SOYBEAN OIL:               :

Beginning stocks           :  2,485      2,861         2,916           3,176

Production                 : 18,745     19,555 3/     18,755          18,810

Imports                    :     90        110           115             115

  Supply, total            : 21,319     22,526        21,786          22,101

Domestic                   : 16,265     16,100        17,300          17,400

  For methyl ester         :  2,013      1,800         2,900           2,900

Exports                    :  2,193      3,250         2,100           2,100

  Use, total               : 18,459     19,350        19,400          19,500

Ending stocks              :  2,861      3,176         2,386           2,601

Average price (c/lb) 2/    :  32.16      35.50         34.00-          36.50-

                           :                            38.00           40.50

                           :

                           :           Thousand short tons

SOYBEAN MEAL:              :

Beginning stocks           :    294        235           300             300

Production                 : 39,102     41,525 3/     39,135          39,235

Imports                    :     88        140           165             165

  Supply, total            : 39,484     41,900        39,600          39,700

Domestic                   : 30,752     30,100        30,400          30,500

Exports                    :  8,497     11,500         8,900           8,900

  Use, total               : 39,249     41,600        39,300          39,400

Ending stocks              :    235        300           300             300

Average price ($/s.t.) 2/  : 331.17     310.00        240.00-         250.00-

                           :                           280.00          290.00

===============================================================================

Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.  1/ Marketing year beginning

September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal.  2/ Prices:

soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; soybean

oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; soybean meal, simple average

of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,760 million

bushels. *Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report;

projected yield based on 1989-2009 trend analysis.

 

 

 

 

                              WASDE-485-16               August 2010

                       U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/

======================================================================

                        :           :          :  2010/11 Projection

      Item              : 2008/09   : 2009/10  :======================

                        :           :   Est.   :   July      August

======================================================================

                        :           1,000 short tons, raw value

                    :

Beginning stocks        :   1,664       1,534      1,268      1,489

Production 2/           :   7,532       7,811      8,235      8,335  

  Beet sugar            :   4,214       4,450      4,710      4,810  

  Cane sugar            :   3,318       3,361      3,525      3,525   

   Florida              :   1,577       1,638      1,785      1,785  

   Hawaii               :     192         147        135        135  

   Louisiana            :   1,397       1,465      1,465      1,465  

   Texas                :     152         111        140        140

Imports                 :   3,082       3,029      2,084      2,269   

  TRQ 3/                :   1,370       1,874      1,224      1,409  

  Other program 4/      :     308         450        300        300 

  Other 5/              :   1,404         705        560        560  

    Mexico              :   1,402         530        550        550  

     Total supply       :  12,278      12,374     11,587     12,093  

                        :

Exports                 :     136         200        150        150 

Deliveries              :  10,608      10,685     10,485     10,685   

  Food 6/               :  10,442      10,475     10,300     10,500  

  Other 7/              :     166         210        185        185  

Miscellaneous           :       0           0          0          0   

     Total use          :  10,744      10,885     10,635     10,835 

Ending stocks           :   1,534       1,489        952      1,258           

                        :

Stocks to use ratio     :    14.3        13.7        9.0       11.6  

======================================================================

1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1.  Includes Puerto Rico.  Historical data are from FSA,

"Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/

Production projections for 2010/11 are based on Crop Production, trend recovery rates, and

processor projections where appropriate.  3/ For 2010/11, includes shortfall of 60,000 tons.

4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.  5/ For 2008/09, other

high-tier (0) and other (0).  For 2009/10, other high-tier (175) and other (0).  For 2010/11,

other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/Combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use,

SMD

miscellaneous uses, and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports.  7/ Transfers

to

sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed.

 

     Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/

==========================================================================

            :               Supply            :        Use       :             

   Fiscal   :====================================================: Ending

    year    : Beginning : Production: Imports : Domestic :Exports: stocks

            :  stocks   :           :         :    2/    :       :

==========================================================================

                           1,000 metric tons, raw value

Sugar

2009/10 est.

        Jul        488        5,120      820       5,170      390      868

        Aug        488        5,115      820       5,170      480      773

2010/11 proj.

        Jul        868        5,450      150       4,950      500    1,018

        Aug        773        5,450      150       4,950      500      923

==========================================================================

1/ U.S. HFCS exports to Mexico (metric tons, dry-weight basis): Oct-Sep 2008/09 = 302,844;

Oct-Jun 2008/09 = 192,608; Oct-Jun 2009/10 = 672,357.  Footnote source: U.S. Census Bureau. 

2/Includes domestic consumption and Mexico's products export program (IMMEX).

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-17                    August 2010

 

                          U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

===============================================================================

                           :         :         :      2010/11  Projections

        Item               : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :===============================

                           :         :   Est.  :        July          August

===============================================================================

                           :               Million acres

Area                       :                           

  Planted                  :   9.47       9.15         10.91 *         10.91

  Harvested                :   7.57       7.53         10.40 *         10.63

                           :

                           :                   Pounds

Yield per harvested        :

    acre                   :    813        777           845 *           837

                           :

                           :             Million 480 pound bales

                           :

Beginning stocks 2/        :  10.05       6.34          2.90            3.10

Production                 :  12.82      12.19         18.30           18.53

Imports                    :   0.00       0.00          0.00            0.01

  Supply, total            :  22.87      18.53         21.20           21.64

Domestic use               :   3.59       3.40          3.40            3.40

Exports                    :  13.28      12.00         14.30           15.00

  Use, total               :  16.86      15.40         17.70           18.40

Unaccounted 3/             :  -0.33       0.03          0.00            0.04

Ending stocks              :   6.34       3.10          3.50            3.20

                           :

Avg. farm price 4/         :   47.8       62.5     60.0-74.0       61.0-75.0

===============================================================================

Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.

1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.  Totals may

not add due to rounding.  2/ Based on Bureau of Census data.  3/ Reflects the

difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending

stocks based on Bureau of Census data.  4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 

*For July, planted area reported in June 30 "Acreage."  Projected harvested

area and yield per harvested area adjusted from historical averages to reflect

favorable crop conditions in the Southwest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-18                    August 2010

 

                         World Wheat Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

                      :

World 3/              :  124.87  683.26  136.86  118.43  642.62  143.41  165.51

United States         :    8.32   68.02    3.46    6.95   34.29   27.64   17.87

Total foreign         :  116.54  615.24  133.40  111.48  608.33  115.78  147.64

  Major exporters 4/  :   22.75  211.24    8.26   68.07  147.70   65.64   28.91

   Argentina          :    2.35   10.10    0.03    0.03    5.33    6.77    0.39

   Australia          :    3.65   21.42    0.11    3.75    6.85   14.75    3.59

   Canada             :    4.41   28.61    0.38    3.30    8.03   18.81    6.56

   EU-27 5/           :   12.34  151.11    7.74   61.00  127.50   25.32   18.38

  Major importers 6/  :   63.35  171.94   74.39   14.97  231.35    6.44   71.89

   Brazil             :    0.34    5.88    6.40    0.20   10.70    0.40    1.53

   China              :   38.96  112.46    0.48    8.00  105.50    0.72   45.69

   Select. Mideast 7/ :    6.53   13.40   20.45    1.85   31.10    0.87    8.41

   N. Africa 8/       :    9.48   14.35   23.48    2.70   37.56    0.25    9.50

   Pakistan           :    3.48   20.96    3.13    0.40   22.80    2.10    2.66

   Southeast Asia 9/  :    2.66    0.00   11.96    1.32   11.74    0.42    2.46

  Selected other      :

   India              :    5.80   78.57    0.01    0.10   70.92    0.02   13.43

   FSU-12             :   12.88  115.45    6.54   24.65   76.32   37.76   20.80

    Russia            :    3.87   63.70    0.20   16.20   38.90   18.39   10.48

    Kazakhstan        :    2.45   12.55    0.11    2.70    7.53    5.70    1.88

    Ukraine           :    2.07   25.90    0.07    2.90   11.90   13.04    3.11

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

                      :

World 3/              :  165.51  680.30  130.94  117.51  651.84  132.23  193.97

United States         :   17.87   60.31    3.23    4.06   30.94   23.98   26.49

Total foreign         :  147.64  619.98  127.71  113.46  620.89  108.25  167.48

  Major exporters 4/  :   28.91  196.79    6.01   65.73  146.12   59.00   26.58

   Argentina          :    0.39    9.60    0.01    0.03    4.93    4.50    0.57

   Australia          :    3.59   22.50    0.10    4.00    7.10   14.50    4.59

   Canada             :    6.56   26.50    0.40    3.70    8.60   18.50    6.36

   EU-27 5/           :   18.38  138.20    5.50   58.00  125.50   21.50   15.07

  Major importers 6/  :   71.89  184.02   68.75   15.44  234.45    4.92   85.29

   Brazil             :    1.53    4.94    6.50    0.20   10.80    1.20    0.97

   China              :   45.69  115.00    1.39    8.00  105.00    0.89   56.19

   Select. Mideast 7/ :    8.41   14.84   17.65    1.70   31.64    0.79    8.47

   N. Africa 8/       :    9.50   20.23   20.95    2.95   39.33    0.24   11.13

   Pakistan           :    2.66   24.03    0.20    0.40   23.20    0.30    3.40

   Southeast Asia 9/  :    2.46    0.00   13.45    1.64   12.44    0.41    3.07

  Selected other      :

   India              :   13.43   80.68    0.30    0.10   78.21    0.10   16.10

   FSU-12             :   20.80  113.84    5.30   27.73   80.41   36.65   22.87

    Russia            :   10.48   61.70    0.15   19.00   42.00   18.50   11.83

    Kazakhstan        :    1.88   17.00    0.08    2.70    7.55    7.80    3.61

    Ukraine           :    3.11   20.90    0.05    3.30   12.30    9.30    2.46

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Total foreign and world use

adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.  3/ World

imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,

grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,

Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil,

China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast

Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,

United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and

Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-19                    August 2010

 

                   World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 3/              :

            July      :  193.02  661.07  127.58  121.80  667.04  131.28  187.05

          August      :  193.97  645.73  121.93  120.23  664.94  124.67  174.76

United States         :

            July      :   26.49   60.30    2.72    4.90   32.55   27.22   29.75

          August      :   26.49   61.64    2.72    4.63   32.28   32.66   25.92

Total foreign         :

            July      :  166.53  600.76  124.86  116.90  634.49  104.06  157.30

          August      :  167.48  584.09  119.21  115.60  632.66   92.01  148.85

  Major exporters 4/  :

            July      :   27.58  196.32    6.51   63.20  145.95   61.00   23.46

          August      :   26.58  193.01    6.51   61.20  143.95   63.00   19.14

   Argentina      Jul :    1.07   12.00    0.01    0.10    5.10    7.00    0.97

                  Aug :    0.57   12.00    0.01    0.10    5.10    7.00    0.47

   Australia      Jul :    4.59   22.00    0.10    4.10    7.25   15.50    3.94

                  Aug :    4.59   23.00    0.10    4.10    7.25   16.50    3.94

   Canada         Jul :    6.36   20.50    0.40    2.00    7.10   15.50    4.66

                  Aug :    6.36   20.50    0.40    2.00    7.10   15.50    4.66

   EU-27 5/       Jul :   15.57  141.82    6.00   57.00  126.50   23.00   13.90

                  Aug :   15.07  137.51    6.00   55.00  124.50   24.00   10.08

  Major importers 6/  :

            July      :   82.83  183.39   65.73   16.81  237.94    4.62   89.39

          August      :   85.29  182.39   63.03   16.31  237.33    5.97   87.39

   Brazil         Jul :    0.67    5.50    6.30    0.20   10.90    0.60    0.97

                  Aug :    0.97    5.00    6.50    0.20   10.80    0.60    1.07

   China          Jul :   56.14  114.50    0.90    9.00  105.80    0.85   64.89

                  Aug :   56.19  114.50    0.50    9.00  105.80    2.00   63.39

   Sel. Mideast 7/Jul :    8.22   17.55   14.98    2.10   32.85    0.71    7.18

                  Aug :    8.47   17.55   14.08    1.75   32.45    0.71    6.93

   N. Africa 8/   Jul :   10.38   18.05   21.50    2.85   39.85    0.24    9.84

                  Aug :   11.13   17.55   20.90    2.95   40.25    0.24    9.09

   Pakistan       Jul :    3.40   22.60    0.30    0.40   23.60    0.30    2.40

                  Aug :    3.40   22.60    0.30    0.40   23.60    0.30    2.40

   SE Asia 9/     Jul :    2.37    0.00   13.45    1.71   12.94    0.43    2.46

                  Aug :    3.07    0.00   12.45    1.46   12.44    0.43    2.66

  Selected other      :

   India          Jul :   16.10   79.00    0.30    0.10   80.01    0.40   14.99

                  Aug :   16.10   80.71    0.30    0.10   82.44    0.20   14.48

   FSU-12         Jul :   23.77  100.62    6.23   32.48   85.86   31.65   13.11

                  Aug :   22.87   87.21    5.88   34.18   87.17   15.85   12.94

    Russia        Jul :   12.83   53.00    0.15   24.00   47.20   15.00    3.78

                  Aug :   11.83   45.00    0.65   26.00   49.20    3.00    5.28

    Kazakhstan    Jul :    3.91   14.00    0.08    2.70    7.65    8.00    2.33

                  Aug :    3.61   11.50    0.08    2.70    7.65    6.00    1.53

    Ukraine       Jul :    2.26   20.00    0.05    3.10   12.10    8.00    2.21

                  Aug :    2.46   17.00    0.05    2.80   11.60    6.00    1.91

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Total foreign and world use

adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.  3/ World

imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,

grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,

Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil,

China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast

Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,

United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and

Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-20                    August 2010

 

                      World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

                      :

World 3/              :  163.74 1109.62  110.40  645.80 1079.53  112.99  193.84

United States         :   45.06  325.87    3.05  140.92  275.98   50.94   47.06

Total foreign         :  118.68  783.76  107.35  504.88  803.55   62.05  146.78

  Major exporters 4/  :   13.21   71.67    2.10   32.66   49.33   22.45   15.20

   Argentina          :    3.27   19.13    0.04    5.79    8.75   12.45    1.24

   Australia          :    2.67   12.27    0.00    5.89    7.25    4.41    3.29

   Canada             :    4.01   27.18    1.90   16.63   22.87    3.87    6.36

  Major importers 5/  :   35.05  243.91   82.52  234.41  311.37    6.72   43.39

   EU-27 6/           :   12.77  161.43    3.41  114.05  151.80    5.55   20.25

   Japan              :    1.71    0.22   19.61   15.05   19.97    0.00    1.57

   Mexico             :    4.74   32.25   10.47   25.24   42.06    0.16    5.24

   N. Afr & Mideast 7/:    6.97   24.70   23.22   39.59   46.92    0.23    7.75

   Saudi Arabia       :    2.81    0.27    8.69    9.13    9.35    0.01    2.41

   Southeast Asia 8/  :    3.19   24.63    5.21   20.36   28.27    0.77    4.00

   South Korea        :    2.12    0.36    7.25    6.41    8.21    0.00    1.52

  Selected other      :

   Brazil             :   12.87   53.62    1.60   40.75   48.53    7.15   12.41

   China              :   40.43  172.66    1.65  107.83  160.32    0.22   54.19

   FSU-12             :    4.45   78.56    0.65   41.30   57.94   17.10    8.62

    Russia            :    1.59   40.70    0.11   21.90   32.80    4.79    4.80

    Ukraine           :    1.59   26.22    0.02   10.33   13.70   11.88    2.25

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

                      :

World 3/              :  193.84 1103.57  110.50  653.09 1109.55  115.93  187.86

United States         :   47.06  349.22    2.31  146.91  303.31   54.64   40.63

Total foreign         :  146.78  754.35  108.19  506.18  806.24   61.28  147.22

  Major exporters 4/  :   15.20   76.42    2.45   33.94   51.26   26.06   16.75

   Argentina          :    1.24   27.95    0.03    7.63   10.66   15.81    2.75

   Australia          :    3.29   11.57    0.00    5.64    7.11    4.69    3.06

   Canada             :    6.36   22.37    2.27   16.21   22.77    3.03    5.20

  Major importers 5/  :   43.39  235.15   81.89  232.21  309.91    5.62   44.90

   EU-27 6/           :   20.25  151.76    2.67  110.58  148.53    2.98   23.17

   Japan              :    1.57    0.18   19.59   14.87   19.78    0.00    1.56

   Mexico             :    5.24   27.80   10.75   24.53   41.30    0.25    2.24

   N. Afr & Mideast 7/:    7.75   31.98   20.79   41.38   49.07    1.13   10.32

   Saudi Arabia       :    2.41    0.27    9.51    9.23    9.43    0.00    2.76

   Southeast Asia 8/  :    4.00   22.78    5.61   20.44   28.35    1.26    2.78

   South Korea        :    1.52    0.34    8.24    6.54    8.59    0.00    1.50

  Selected other      :

   Brazil             :   12.41   56.86    0.91   42.28   50.00    8.53   11.64

   China              :   54.19  161.35    2.98  109.75  164.55    0.22   53.75

   FSU-12             :    8.62   67.94    0.52   39.37   55.41   14.93    6.74

    Russia            :    4.80   31.82    0.20   20.52   30.99    3.02    2.81

    Ukraine           :    2.25   24.12    0.02    9.70   12.87   11.46    2.06

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum,

barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and

mixed grains).  2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the

differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not

balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting

discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South

Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East,

South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/

Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and

Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-21                    August 2010

 

                  World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 3/              :

            July      :  188.78 1117.55  110.62  656.21 1126.15  113.81  180.18

          August      :  187.86 1107.91  112.82  654.95 1123.72  114.97  172.04

United States         :

            July      :   41.95  350.74    2.25  141.62  303.02   53.36   38.57

          August      :   40.63  354.68    2.25  142.00  304.16   56.15   37.25

Total foreign         :

            July      :  146.82  766.81  108.38  514.59  823.13   60.45  141.62

          August      :  147.22  753.23  110.58  512.96  819.56   58.83  134.80

  Major exporters 4/  :

            July      :   16.97   73.18    2.73   35.04   52.89   26.08   13.90

          August      :   16.75   73.18    2.73   34.54   52.39   26.58   13.68

   Argentina      Jul :    3.77   27.08    0.03    8.02   11.18   16.21    3.49

                  Aug :    2.75   27.08    0.03    8.02   11.18   16.21    2.47

   Australia      Jul :    3.36   10.97    0.00    5.64    7.17    4.46    2.70

                  Aug :    3.06   10.97    0.00    5.54    7.07    4.96    2.00

   Canada         Jul :    5.10   22.11    2.57   16.32   22.90    2.88    3.99

                  Aug :    5.20   22.11    2.57   16.32   23.10    2.88    3.89

  Major importers 5/  :

            July      :   44.82  234.98   83.22  237.77  316.75    6.96   39.31

          August      :   44.90  231.28   83.97  240.12  319.00    7.81   33.34

   EU-27 6/       Jul :   23.17  146.35    2.72  111.75  150.25    5.26   16.72

                  Aug :   23.17  143.16    3.22  113.65  152.16    6.11   11.28

   Japan          Jul :    1.56    0.18   19.38   14.66   19.58    0.00    1.54

                  Aug :    1.56    0.18   19.38   14.66   19.58    0.00    1.54

   Mexico         Jul :    2.49   31.93   11.75   25.43   42.40    0.15    3.62

                  Aug :    2.24   32.03   11.95   25.43   42.40    0.15    3.67

   N Afr/M.East 7/Jul :    9.82   31.06   20.68   42.98   50.87    0.77    9.92

                  Aug :   10.32   30.46   20.73   43.23   51.12    0.77    9.62

   Saudi Arabia   Jul :    2.76    0.27    9.21    9.33    9.53    0.00    2.71

                  Aug :    2.76    0.27    8.71    9.33    9.53    0.00    2.21

   S.-east Asia 8/Jul :    2.95   24.77    6.01   22.04   30.14    0.79    2.80

                  Aug :    2.78   24.77    6.01   21.74   29.74    0.79    3.02

   South Korea    Jul :    1.50    0.34    8.64    6.84    9.02    0.00    1.46

                  Aug :    1.50    0.34    9.14    7.34    9.52    0.00    1.46

  Selected other      :

   Brazil         Jul :   11.29   53.73    1.41   43.58   51.30    7.03    8.09

                  Aug :   11.64   53.73    1.41   43.58   51.30    7.03    8.44

   China          Jul :   53.75  173.00    2.08  110.81  167.80    0.27   60.75

                  Aug :   53.75  173.00    2.98  111.81  168.80    0.27   60.65

   FSU-12         Jul :    6.78   62.80    0.46   36.84   52.04   12.86    5.15

                  Aug :    6.74   53.16    1.01   32.15   46.55    9.83    4.54

    Russia        Jul :    2.81   26.80    0.15   17.20   26.90    1.22    1.65

                  Aug :    2.81   20.90    0.70   13.50   22.40    0.44    1.57

    Ukraine       Jul :    2.10   24.95    0.02   10.93   14.00   11.21    1.86

                  Aug :    2.06   21.75    0.02   10.43   13.50    9.01    1.32

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum,

barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and

mixed grains).  2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the

differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not

balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting

discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South

Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East,

South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/

Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and

Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-22                    August 2010

 

                          World Corn Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

                      :

World 3/              :  131.32  797.83   82.45  478.84  781.64   84.42  147.51

United States         :   41.26  307.14    0.34  131.62  259.27   46.97   42.50

Total foreign         :   90.06  490.69   82.10  347.22  522.37   37.45  105.00

  Major exporters 4/  :    5.27   27.57    0.06    8.80   16.30   11.99    4.61

   Argentina          :    2.18   15.00    0.03    4.50    6.40   10.32    0.49

   South Africa       :    3.09   12.57    0.03    4.30    9.90    1.67    4.11

  Major importers 5/  :   16.51  117.89   48.99  115.87  162.94    2.67   17.77

   Egypt              :    0.85    6.65    5.03    8.70   11.10    0.01    1.41

   EU-27 6/           :    4.36   62.32    2.74   47.50   62.00    1.74    5.68

   Japan              :    1.16    0.00   16.53   12.10   16.70    0.00    1.00

   Mexico             :    4.13   24.23    7.76   16.40   32.40    0.16    3.56

   Southeast Asia 7/  :    3.19   24.57    5.20   20.30   28.20    0.76    4.00

   South Korea        :    2.08    0.09    7.19    6.37    7.89    0.00    1.47

  Selected other      :

   Brazil             :   12.58   51.00    1.14   38.50   45.50    7.14   12.08

   Canada             :    1.46   10.59    1.84    7.53   11.66    0.37    1.86

   China              :   39.39  165.90    0.05  107.00  152.00    0.17   53.17

   FSU-12             :    1.14   21.67    0.42   12.92   14.76    6.89    1.58

    Ukraine           :    0.67   11.40    0.01    5.10    5.85    5.50    0.73

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

                      :

World 3/              :  147.51  808.45   85.20  486.93  816.93   89.82  139.03

United States         :   42.50  333.01    0.20  140.34  289.32   50.17   36.23

Total foreign         :  105.00  475.44   85.00  346.58  527.61   39.65  102.80

  Major exporters 4/  :    4.61   36.50    0.05    9.60   17.20   16.50    7.46

   Argentina          :    0.49   22.50    0.03    5.20    7.10   14.00    1.92

   South Africa       :    4.11   14.00    0.03    4.40   10.10    2.50    5.54

  Major importers 5/  :   17.77  106.72   50.20  110.95  158.80    2.74   13.15

   Egypt              :    1.41    6.82    5.00    9.50   11.90    0.00    1.34

   EU-27 6/           :    5.68   55.77    2.50   43.50   58.50    1.25    4.21

   Japan              :    1.00    0.00   16.30   11.70   16.30    0.00    1.00

   Mexico             :    3.56   21.30    8.00   14.80   30.80    0.25    1.81

   Southeast Asia 7/  :    4.00   22.72    5.60   20.40   28.30    1.24    2.78

   South Korea        :    1.47    0.08    8.20    6.50    8.30    0.00    1.45

  Selected other      :

   Brazil             :   12.08   54.35    0.50   40.00   47.00    8.50   11.43

   Canada             :    1.86    9.56    2.20    7.40   11.90    0.15    1.57

   China              :   53.17  155.00    1.00  109.00  156.00    0.15   53.02

   FSU-12             :    1.58   17.85    0.33   11.27   12.87    5.68    1.21

    Ukraine           :    0.73   10.50    0.01    4.80    5.50    5.20    0.54

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted

to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and

exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in

transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South

Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-27, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast

Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,

Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-23                    August 2010

 

                      World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 3/              :

            July      :  139.59  832.38   86.72  492.90  830.89   89.16  141.08

          August      :  139.03  831.59   89.17  493.65  831.42   90.42  139.20

United States         :

            July      :   37.55  336.44    0.25  135.90  289.83   49.53   34.89

          August      :   36.23  339.49    0.25  135.90  290.59   52.07   33.32

Total foreign         :

            July      :  102.04  495.94   86.47  357.00  541.06   39.63  106.19

          August      :  102.80  492.10   88.92  357.75  540.83   38.35  105.88

  Major exporters 4/  :

            July      :    7.46   33.50    0.05   10.50   18.50   16.50    6.01

          August      :    7.46   33.50    0.05   10.10   17.90   16.50    6.61

   Argentina      Jul :    2.92   21.00    0.03    5.50    7.50   14.00    2.44

                  Aug :    1.92   21.00    0.03    5.50    7.50   14.00    1.44

   South Africa   Jul :    4.54   12.50    0.03    5.00   11.00    2.50    3.56

                  Aug :    5.54   12.50    0.03    4.60   10.40    2.50    5.16

  Major importers 5/  :

            July      :   13.33  112.83   52.60  113.85  162.30    2.11   14.35

          August      :   13.15  111.79   53.60  114.55  162.90    1.91   13.74

   Egypt          Jul :    1.34    7.00    5.40   10.10   12.60    0.00    1.14

                  Aug :    1.34    7.00    5.40   10.10   12.60    0.00    1.14

   EU-27 6/       Jul :    4.21   56.99    2.50   43.00   58.00    1.20    4.50

                  Aug :    4.21   55.95    3.00   43.50   58.50    1.00    3.66

   Japan          Jul :    1.00    0.00   16.30   11.70   16.30    0.00    1.00

                  Aug :    1.00    0.00   16.30   11.70   16.30    0.00    1.00

   Mexico         Jul :    1.81   24.00    9.10   15.60   31.80    0.15    2.96

                  Aug :    1.81   24.00    9.10   15.60   31.80    0.15    2.96

   S.-east Asia 7/Jul :    2.95   24.71    6.00   22.00   30.10    0.76    2.80

                  Aug :    2.78   24.71    6.00   21.70   29.70    0.76    3.02

   South Korea    Jul :    1.45    0.08    8.60    6.80    8.70    0.00    1.43

                  Aug :    1.45    0.08    9.10    7.30    9.20    0.00    1.43

  Selected other      :

   Brazil         Jul :   11.08   51.00    1.00   41.30   48.30    7.00    7.78

                  Aug :   11.43   51.00    1.00   41.30   48.30    7.00    8.13

   Canada         Jul :    1.47   10.50    2.50    8.00   12.50    0.30    1.67

                  Aug :    1.57   10.50    2.50    8.00   12.70    0.30    1.57

   China          Jul :   53.02  166.00    0.10  110.00  159.00    0.20   59.92

                  Aug :   53.02  166.00    1.00  111.00  160.00    0.20   59.82

   FSU-12         Jul :    1.21   21.37    0.28   13.16   14.86    6.26    1.75

                  Aug :    1.21   18.37    0.48   12.16   13.86    5.08    1.12

    Ukraine       Jul :    0.54   13.00    0.01    5.90    6.60    6.00    0.95

                  Aug :    0.54   11.50    0.01    5.80    6.50    5.00    0.55

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted

to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and

exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in

transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South

Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-27, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast

Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,

Thailand, and Vietnam.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-24                    August 2010

 

                   World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :        Use        :

                      :=========================:===================: Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :         :         : stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       : Total 2/:         :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Domestic: Exports :

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

World 3/              :   80.61  448.03   27.09    437.77    28.97    90.86

United States         :    0.92    6.40    0.61      3.96     3.00     0.96

Total foreign         :   79.69  441.63   26.48    433.81    25.96    89.91

  Major exporters 4/  :   18.43  150.12    0.80    123.08    19.52    26.75

   India              :   13.00   99.18    0.00     91.09     2.09    19.00

   Pakistan           :    0.70    6.70    0.00      3.49     2.91     1.00

   Thailand           :    2.71   19.85    0.30      9.50     8.57     4.79

   Vietnam            :    2.02   24.39    0.50     19.00     5.95     1.96

  Major importers 5/  :   14.43   64.48   11.53     74.63     0.74    15.07

   Brazil             :    0.97    8.57    0.68      8.53     0.57     1.12

   EU-27 6/           :    1.13    1.62    1.34      2.93     0.14     1.02

   Indonesia          :    5.61   38.30    0.25     37.09     0.01     7.06

   Nigeria            :    0.77    3.20    1.75      5.15     0.00     0.57

   Philippines        :    4.42   10.75    2.60     13.65     0.00     4.12

   Sel. Mideast 7/    :    1.43    1.67    3.73      5.67     0.02     1.13

  Selected other      :

   Burma              :    0.59   10.15    0.00      9.65     1.05     0.04

   C. Amer & Carib 8/ :    0.39    1.51    1.31      2.93     0.00     0.29

   China              :   38.02  134.33    0.34    133.00     0.78    38.90

   Egypt              :    0.69    4.40    0.02      4.00     0.55     0.56

   Japan              :    2.56    8.03    0.66      8.33     0.20     2.72

   Mexico             :    0.19    0.16    0.59      0.76     0.01     0.17

   South Korea        :    0.69    4.84    0.25      4.79     0.00     1.00

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

World 3/              :   90.86  442.61   27.43    438.51    30.12    94.97

United States         :    0.96    6.92    0.62      4.00     3.43     1.07

Total foreign         :   89.91  435.70   26.81    434.51    26.69    93.90

  Major exporters 4/  :   26.75  140.31    0.80    117.08    21.20    29.58

   India              :   19.00   89.13    0.00     85.43     2.20    20.50

   Pakistan           :    1.00    6.50    0.00      2.90     3.75     0.85

   Thailand           :    4.79   20.30    0.30      9.60     9.50     6.29

   Vietnam            :    1.96   24.38    0.50     19.15     5.75     1.94

  Major importers 5/  :   15.07   64.09   11.31     76.04     0.48    13.94

   Brazil             :    1.12    7.64    0.95      8.55     0.30     0.86

   EU-27 6/           :    1.02    1.98    1.35      3.10     0.14     1.11

   Indonesia          :    7.06   38.80    0.25     38.10     0.02     7.99

   Nigeria            :    0.57    3.40    1.80      5.30     0.00     0.47

   Philippines        :    4.12    9.76    2.20     13.61     0.00     2.46

   Sel. Mideast 7/    :    1.13    2.07    3.50      5.69     0.02     0.99

  Selected other      :

   Burma              :    0.04   10.60    0.00     10.00     0.30     0.34

   C. Amer & Carib 8/ :    0.29    1.62    1.50      3.08     0.00     0.33

   China              :   38.90  137.00    0.30    134.50     0.85    40.85

   Egypt              :    0.56    4.30    0.04      4.00     0.60     0.29

   Japan              :    2.72    7.71    0.70      8.20     0.20     2.73

   Mexico             :    0.17    0.18    0.60      0.77     0.01     0.17

   South Korea        :    1.00    4.92    0.30      4.75     0.00     1.46

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Total foreign and world use

adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total

domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance.  3/ World

imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries.  

4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam.  5/ Brazil,  Indonesia, Hong Kong,

Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-27. 6/

Trade excludes intra-trade.  7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and

Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-25                    August 2010

 

                   World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.)

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :        Use        :

                      :=========================:===================: Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :         :         : stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       : Total 2/:         :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Domestic: Exports :

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 3/              :

            July      :   89.44  459.28   28.67    452.11    31.48    96.61

          August      :   94.97  459.17   28.90    456.62    31.51    97.52

United States         :

            July      :    1.21    7.81    0.67      4.05     3.53     2.11

          August      :    1.07    7.68    0.64      4.05     3.56     1.77

Total foreign         :

            July      :   88.23  451.47   28.00    448.06    27.95    94.51

          August      :   93.90  451.49   28.26    452.57    27.94    95.74

  Major exporters 4/  :

            July      :   24.43  150.85    0.85    125.80    21.90    28.43

          August      :   29.58  150.85    0.85    130.30    21.90    29.08

   India          Jul :   15.00   99.00    0.00     93.50     2.50    18.00

                  Aug :   20.50   99.00    0.00     98.00     2.50    19.00

   Pakistan       Jul :    1.20    6.50    0.00      3.00     3.60     1.10

                  Aug :    0.85    6.50    0.00      3.00     3.60     0.75

   Thailand       Jul :    6.29   20.60    0.35      9.80    10.00     7.44

                  Aug :    6.29   20.60    0.35      9.80    10.00     7.44

   Vietnam        Jul :    1.94   24.75    0.50     19.50     5.80     1.89

                  Aug :    1.94   24.75    0.50     19.50     5.80     1.89

  Major importers 5/  :

            July      :   14.06   67.38   11.71     78.03     0.66    14.46

          August      :   13.94   67.38   11.71     77.98     0.66    14.39

   Brazil         Jul :    0.99    8.40    0.65      8.65     0.50     0.89

                  Aug :    0.86    8.40    0.65      8.60     0.50     0.81

   EU-27 6/       Jul :    1.11    2.01    1.35      3.15     0.14     1.18

                  Aug :    1.11    2.01    1.35      3.15     0.14     1.18

   Indonesia      Jul :    7.99   40.00    0.25     39.50     0.00     8.74

                  Aug :    7.99   40.00    0.25     39.50     0.00     8.74

   Nigeria        Jul :    0.47    3.60    1.90      5.50     0.00     0.47

                  Aug :    0.47    3.60    1.90      5.50     0.00     0.47

   Philippines    Jul :    2.46   10.80    2.50     13.70     0.00     2.06

                  Aug :    2.46   10.80    2.50     13.70     0.00     2.06

   Sel. Mideast 7/Jul :    0.99    2.13    3.75      5.80     0.02     1.05

                  Aug :    0.99    2.13    3.75      5.80     0.02     1.05

  Selected other      :

   Burma          Jul :    0.04   11.00    0.00     10.10     0.70     0.24

                  Aug :    0.34   11.00    0.00     10.10     0.70     0.54

   C. Am & Car. 8/Jul :    0.32    1.56    1.50      3.09     0.00     0.29

                  Aug :    0.33    1.62    1.45      3.11     0.00     0.29

   China          Jul :   40.85  137.50    0.33    135.50     0.90    42.28

                  Aug :   40.85  137.50    0.33    135.50     0.90    42.28

   Egypt          Jul :    0.29    3.90    0.15      3.85     0.30     0.19

                  Aug :    0.29    3.90    0.15      3.85     0.30     0.19

   Japan          Jul :    2.73    7.85    0.70      8.13     0.20     2.95

                  Aug :    2.73    7.85    0.70      8.13     0.20     2.95

   Mexico         Jul :    0.17    0.16    0.65      0.82     0.01     0.16

                  Aug :    0.17    0.16    0.65      0.82     0.01     0.16

   South Korea    Jul :    1.46    4.60    0.33      4.74     0.01     1.64

                  Aug :    1.46    4.60    0.33      4.74     0.01     1.64

===============================================================================

1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Total foreign and world use

adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total

domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance.  3/ World

imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries.  

4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam.  5/ Brazil,  Indonesia, Hong Kong,

Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-27. 6/ Trade

excludes intra-trade.  7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi

Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-26                    August 2010

 

                         World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million 480-pound bales)

================================================================================

                      :          Supply         :       Use      :      :

        Region        :=========================:================: Loss : Ending

                      :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:  2/  : stocks

                      :  stocks : tion  :       :        :       :      :

================================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

                      :

World                 :   60.69  107.16    30.07  109.94    30.11  -2.67  60.53

United States         :   10.05   12.82       3/    3.59    13.28  -0.33   6.34

Total foreign         :   50.64   94.34    30.07  106.35    16.83  -2.33  54.20

  Major exporters 4/  :   17.80   42.34     1.54   26.83    13.88  -0.19  21.17

   Central Asia 5/    :    2.42    7.10     0.01    1.60     4.45   0.00   3.47

   Afr. Fr. Zone 6/   :    0.67    2.41       3/    0.19     2.15   0.00   0.75

   S. Hemis. 7/       :    8.30    8.68     0.31    5.52     4.60  -0.20   7.38

    Australia         :    0.60    1.50       3/    0.05     1.20  -0.07   0.93

   Brazil             :    6.25    5.48     0.05    4.20     2.74  -0.15   4.99

   India              :    5.63   22.60     0.80   17.75     2.36   0.00   8.92

  Major importers 8/  :   30.99   49.21    26.06   75.24     1.88  -2.15  31.29

   Mexico             :    0.93    0.57     1.32    1.85     0.18   0.03   0.76

   China              :   20.50   36.70     7.00   44.00     0.08  -2.25  22.37

   EU-27 9/           :    0.67    1.23     0.96    1.14     1.01   0.05   0.65

   Turkey             :    1.95    1.93     2.92    5.10     0.14  -0.09   1.65

   Pakistan           :    4.47    8.70     1.95   11.25     0.38   0.03   3.47

   Indonesia          :    0.39    0.03     2.00    2.00     0.02   0.05   0.35

   Thailand           :    0.32      3/     1.60    1.60     0.00   0.03   0.29

   Bangladesh         :    0.62    0.04     3.80    3.75     0.00   0.01   0.70

   Vietnam            :    0.25    0.01     1.25    1.25     0.00   0.00   0.26

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

                      :

World                 :   60.53  102.15    36.21  117.71    35.65  -2.05  47.58

United States         :    6.34   12.19       3/    3.40    12.00   0.03   3.10

Total foreign         :   54.20   89.96    36.21  114.31    23.65  -2.08  44.48

  Major exporters 4/  :   21.17   41.98     1.56   28.84    20.10  -0.19  15.95

   Central Asia 5/    :    3.47    6.12     0.01    1.69     5.91   0.00   2.01

   Afr. Fr. Zone 6/   :    0.75    2.16       3/    0.18     2.22   0.00   0.51

   S. Hemis. 7/       :    7.38    8.77     0.40    5.70     4.91  -0.20   6.15

    Australia         :    0.93    1.60       3/    0.04     2.10  -0.07   0.46

   Brazil             :    4.99    5.35     0.16    4.40     1.99  -0.15   4.26

   India              :    8.92   23.50     0.60   19.60     6.55   0.00   6.87

  Major importers 8/  :   31.29   45.38    31.98   81.27     2.33  -1.89  26.95

   Mexico             :    0.76    0.42     1.40    1.90     0.10   0.03   0.56

   China              :   22.37   32.50    10.94   48.50     0.03  -2.00  19.28

   EU-27 9/           :    0.65    1.01     0.89    0.98     1.06   0.05   0.46

   Turkey             :    1.65    1.75     4.30    5.80     0.15  -0.08   1.83

   Pakistan           :    3.47    9.60     1.50   11.50     0.75   0.03   2.30

   Indonesia          :    0.35    0.03     2.10    2.05     0.02   0.05   0.36

   Thailand           :    0.29      3/     1.80    1.78     0.01   0.03   0.29

   Bangladesh         :    0.70    0.05     4.00    4.00     0.00   0.01   0.74

   Vietnam            :    0.26    0.02     1.70    1.60     0.00   0.00   0.38

================================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.   Totals may not add exactly and trade

may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   2/ Generally reflects

cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,

China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks

based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than

5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and

regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central

African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,

Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-27                    August 2010

 

                         World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million 480-pound bales)

================================================================================

                      :          Supply         :       Use      :      :

        Region        :=========================:================: Loss : Ending

                      :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:  2/  : stocks

                      :  stocks : tion  :       :        :       :      :

================================================================================

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World                 :

            July      :   50.99  116.02    37.05  119.70    37.02  -2.58  49.91

          August      :   47.58  116.85    38.25  120.87    38.24  -2.04  45.61

United States         :

            July      :    2.90   18.30       3/    3.40    14.30   0.00   3.50

          August      :    3.10   18.53     0.01    3.40    15.00   0.04   3.20

Total foreign         :

            July      :   48.09   97.72    37.05  116.30    22.72  -2.58  46.41

          August      :   44.48   98.32    38.24  117.47    23.24  -2.08  42.41

  Major exporters 4/  :

            July      :   17.75   47.44     1.64   29.94    19.27  -0.19  17.81

          August      :   15.95   48.54     1.94   29.93    19.85  -0.19  16.84

   Central Asia 5/Jul :    2.01    6.97     0.01    1.73     5.60   0.00   1.65

                  Aug :    2.01    6.97     0.01    1.73     5.72   0.00   1.53

   Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jul :    0.51    2.66       3/    0.18     2.45   0.00   0.53

                  Aug :    0.51    2.66       3/    0.18     2.45   0.00   0.53

   S. Hemis 7/    Jul :    6.79   11.22     0.51    5.95     4.88  -0.20   7.89

                  Aug :    6.15   11.32     0.81    5.95     4.73  -0.20   7.80

    Australia     Jul :    0.74    2.20       3/    0.04     1.85  -0.07   1.12

                  Aug :    0.46    2.30       3/    0.04     2.00  -0.07   0.80

   Brazil         Jul :    4.63    7.00     0.30    4.60     2.20  -0.15   5.28

                  Aug :    4.26    7.00     0.60    4.60     1.90  -0.15   5.51

   India          Jul :    8.02   25.00     0.63   20.40     5.90   0.00   7.35

                  Aug :    6.87   26.00     0.63   20.40     6.50   0.00   6.59

  Major importers 8/  :

            July      :   28.75   47.42    32.81   82.15     2.24  -2.39  26.99

          August      :   26.95   46.92    33.62   83.33     2.09  -1.89  23.96

   Mexico         Jul :    0.56    0.64     1.50    1.90     0.20   0.03   0.58

                  Aug :    0.56    0.64     1.40    1.90     0.15   0.03   0.53

   China          Jul :   20.49   33.00    11.65   49.00     0.03  -2.50  18.62

                  Aug :   19.28   33.00    12.50   50.00     0.03  -2.00  16.76

   EU-27 9/       Jul :    0.46    1.38     0.84    0.93     1.26   0.05   0.44

                  Aug :    0.46    1.38     0.82    0.91     1.26   0.05   0.44

   Turkey         Jul :    1.83    2.10     3.30    5.70     0.15  -0.08   1.46

                  Aug :    1.83    2.30     3.40    6.00     0.15  -0.08   1.46

   Pakistan       Jul :    2.91   10.20     2.30   11.60     0.40   0.03   3.39

                  Aug :    2.30    9.50     2.30   11.50     0.30   0.03   2.27

   Indonesia      Jul :    0.36    0.03     2.20    2.10     0.02   0.05   0.42

                  Aug :    0.36    0.03     2.20    2.10     0.02   0.05   0.42

   Thailand       Jul :    0.29      3/     1.80    1.78     0.01   0.03   0.28

                  Aug :    0.29      3/     1.80    1.78     0.01   0.03   0.28

   Bangladesh     Jul :    0.74    0.05     4.25    4.25     0.00   0.01   0.78

                  Aug :    0.74    0.05     4.25    4.25     0.00   0.01   0.78

   Vietnam        Jul :    0.36    0.02     1.78    1.80     0.00   0.00   0.35

                  Aug :    0.38    0.02     1.75    1.80     0.00   0.00   0.35

================================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.   Totals may not add exactly and trade

may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   2/ Generally reflects

cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and

the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on

supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 

4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 

5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and

Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,

Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.   7/ Argentina, Australia,

Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.  8/ In addition to the

countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,

and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-28                    August 2010

 

                       World Soybean Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :           Use         :

                      :=========================:=======================:Ending

     Region           :         :       :       :               :       :stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :    Domestic   :       :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports:

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

World 2/              :   52.89  211.96   77.17  192.71  220.79   77.25   43.97

United States         :    5.58   80.75    0.36   45.23   48.11   34.82    3.76

Total foreign         :   47.31  131.22   76.81  147.48  172.68   42.44   40.21

  Major exporters 3/  :   40.85   93.80    1.30   64.61   69.09   38.21   28.65

   Argentina          :   21.76   32.00    1.24   31.24   32.82    5.59   16.59

   Brazil             :   18.90   57.80    0.04   31.87   34.72   29.99   12.04

  Major importers 4/  :    5.61   17.58   64.50   61.66   77.19    0.45   10.05

   China              :    4.25   15.54   41.10   41.04   51.44    0.40    9.05

   EU-27              :    0.81    0.64   13.21   12.86   14.09    0.02    0.56

   Japan              :    0.27    0.26    3.40    2.50    3.75    0.00    0.18

   Mexico             :    0.06    0.15    3.33    3.47    3.50    0.00    0.04

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

World 2/              :   43.97  259.90   86.66  207.65  237.44   89.58   63.52

United States         :    3.76   91.42    0.41   47.63   51.24   40.01    4.34

Total foreign         :   40.21  168.48   86.25  160.02  186.20   49.57   59.18

  Major exporters 3/  :   28.65  130.70    0.20   68.36   72.97   44.75   41.82

   Argentina          :   16.59   54.50    0.00   33.53   35.12   11.00   24.97

   Brazil             :   12.04   69.00    0.19   33.28   36.18   28.35   16.70

  Major importers 4/  :   10.05   16.87   73.27   68.89   84.89    0.32   14.97

   China              :    9.05   14.70   49.50   48.48   59.08    0.25   13.92

   EU-27              :    0.56    0.86   13.00   12.50   13.77    0.04    0.61

   Japan              :    0.18    0.23    3.60    2.53    3.83    0.00    0.18

   Mexico             :    0.04    0.11    3.45    3.51    3.55    0.00    0.05

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 2/              :

            July      :   65.35  251.29   87.54  216.30  247.57   88.84   67.76

          August      :   63.52  253.69   89.54  219.75  250.92   91.11   64.73

United States         :

            July      :    4.75   91.04    0.27   44.77   48.98   37.29    9.80

          August      :    4.34   93.44    0.27   44.91   49.21   39.05    9.80

Total foreign         :

            July      :   60.59  160.25   87.27  171.53  198.60   51.55   57.96

          August      :   59.18  160.25   89.27  174.85  201.71   52.05   54.93

  Major exporters 3/  :

            July      :   43.55  121.50    0.19   73.00   77.80   46.24   41.20

          August      :   41.82  121.50    0.19   73.81   78.59   46.74   38.19

   Argentina      Jul :   25.47   50.00    0.00   38.65   40.32   12.50   22.65

                  Aug :   24.97   50.00    0.00   39.26   40.91   12.50   21.56

   Brazil         Jul :   17.92   65.00    0.18   32.80   35.80   28.90   18.40

                  Aug :   16.70   65.00    0.18   33.00   36.00   29.40   16.47

  Major importers 4/  :

            July      :   14.68   16.91   73.97   74.10   90.43    0.52   14.62

          August      :   14.97   16.91   75.95   76.49   92.82    0.52   14.50

   China          Jul :   13.62   14.60   50.00   53.40   64.22    0.45   13.55

                  Aug :   13.92   14.60   52.00   55.80   66.62    0.45   13.45

   EU-27          Jul :    0.61    1.00   12.60   12.40   13.62    0.03    0.56

                  Aug :    0.61    1.00   12.60   12.40   13.62    0.03    0.56

   Japan          Jul :    0.18    0.23    3.66    2.59    3.89    0.00    0.17

                  Aug :    0.18    0.23    3.66    2.59    3.89    0.00    0.17

   Mexico         Jul :    0.05    0.11    3.60    3.67    3.71    0.00    0.05

                  Aug :    0.05    0.11    3.60    3.67    3.71    0.00    0.05

===============================================================================

1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are

adjusted to an October-September year.  2/ World imports and exports may not

balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between

reported exports and imports.  Therefore, world supply may not equal world

use.  3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.  4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and

Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand).

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-29                    August 2010

 

                     World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :        Use        :

                      :=========================:===================: Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :         :         : stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       : Total   :         :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Domestic: Exports :

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

World 2/              :    6.36  151.43   51.18    151.94    52.82     4.23

United States         :    0.27   35.47    0.08     27.90     7.71     0.21

Total foreign         :    6.10  115.96   51.10    124.04    45.11     4.01

  Major exporters 3/  :    3.83   54.81    0.10     15.00    40.94     2.79

   Argentina          :    1.14   24.36    0.00      0.63    24.03     0.85

   Brazil             :    2.59   24.70    0.08     12.42    13.11     1.84

   India              :    0.11    5.75    0.01      1.95     3.81     0.10

  Major importers 4/  :    1.27   44.10   28.19     71.70     1.53     0.33

   EU-27              :    1.07   10.13   20.98     31.58     0.47     0.13

   China              :    0.00   32.48    0.22     31.67     1.02     0.00

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

World 2/              :    4.23  163.55   53.13    160.26    55.77     4.88

United States         :    0.21   37.67    0.13     27.31    10.43     0.27

Total foreign         :    4.01  125.88   53.00    132.95    45.34     4.61

  Major exporters 3/  :    2.79   57.25    0.11     16.12    40.73     3.30

   Argentina          :    0.85   26.15    0.00      0.67    25.38     0.94

   Brazil             :    1.84   25.79    0.10     12.80    12.75     2.18

   India              :    0.10    5.31    0.01      2.65     2.60     0.17

  Major importers 4/  :    0.33   49.75   29.33     76.86     2.05     0.50

   EU-27              :    0.13    9.85   21.80     31.09     0.45     0.23

   China              :    0.00   38.37    0.07     36.88     1.55     0.00

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 2/              :

            July      :    5.23  170.40   54.81    168.08    56.93     5.43

          August      :    4.88  173.12   55.38    170.55    57.74     5.09

United States         :

            July      :    0.27   35.50    0.15     27.58     8.07     0.27

          August      :    0.27   35.59    0.15     27.67     8.07     0.27

Total foreign         :

            July      :    4.96  134.90   54.66    140.50    48.85     5.16

          August      :    4.61  137.53   55.23    142.89    49.67     4.82

  Major exporters 3/  :

            July      :    3.69   61.45    0.13     17.16    44.35     3.75

          August      :    3.30   62.16    0.13     17.04    45.16     3.39

   Argentina      Jul :    1.52   29.95    0.00      0.70    29.42     1.36

                  Aug :    0.94   30.43    0.00      0.70    29.55     1.13

   Brazil         Jul :    1.60   25.42    0.12     13.38    11.83     1.93

                  Aug :    2.18   25.58    0.12     13.38    12.41     2.09

   India          Jul :    0.56    6.08    0.01      3.08     3.10     0.47

                  Aug :    0.17    6.15    0.01      2.96     3.20     0.17

  Major importers 4/  :

            July      :    0.50   53.70   30.22     81.84     2.00     0.59

          August      :    0.50   55.60   30.80     84.31     2.00     0.59

   EU-27          Jul :    0.23    9.77   22.60     31.85     0.45     0.30

                  Aug :    0.23    9.77   23.05     32.30     0.45     0.30

   China          Jul :    0.00   42.26    0.05     40.81     1.50     0.00

                  Aug :    0.00   44.16    0.05     42.71     1.50     0.00

===============================================================================

1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which

are adjusted to an October-September year.  2/ World imports and exports may

not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags

between reported exports and imports.  Therefore, world supply may not equal

world use.  3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India.  4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU,

and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand).

 

 

 

 

                                 WASDE-485-30                    August 2010

 

                     World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/

                             (Million Metric Tons)

===============================================================================

                      :          Supply         :        Use        :

                      :=========================:===================: Ending

        Region        :         :       :       :         :         : stocks

                      :Beginning:Produc-:       : Total   :         :

                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Domestic: Exports :

===============================================================================

                      :

                      :                      2008/09

World 2/              :    3.11   35.70    8.96     35.91     9.12     2.73

United States         :    1.13    8.50    0.04      7.38     1.00     1.30

Total foreign         :    1.99   27.19    8.92     28.53     8.13     1.43

  Major exporters 3/  :    0.94   14.35    0.80      8.48     7.01     0.59

   Argentina          :    0.30    5.91    0.00      1.43     4.70     0.08

   Brazil             :    0.43    6.12    0.01      4.27     1.91     0.37

   EU-27              :    0.21    2.31    0.79      2.78     0.40     0.14

  Major importers 4/  :    0.29    8.60    3.60     11.83     0.09     0.57

   China              :    0.23    7.31    2.49      9.49     0.08     0.47

   India              :    0.06    1.29    1.06      2.30     0.00     0.10

   Pakistan           :    0.01    0.00    0.04      0.05     0.00     0.00

                      :

                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)

World 2/              :    2.73   38.40    8.60     38.07     8.92     2.75

United States         :    1.30    8.87    0.05      7.30     1.47     1.44

Total foreign         :    1.43   29.53    8.55     30.76     7.45     1.31

  Major exporters 3/  :    0.59   15.03    0.50      9.24     6.22     0.67

   Argentina          :    0.08    6.39    0.00      1.91     4.40     0.16

   Brazil             :    0.37    6.39    0.05      5.05     1.42     0.35

   EU-27              :    0.14    2.25    0.45      2.28     0.40     0.16

  Major importers 4/  :    0.57    9.83    3.14     13.13     0.08     0.33

   China              :    0.47    8.64    1.60     10.42     0.08     0.20

   India              :    0.10    1.19    1.50      2.67     0.00     0.12

   Pakistan           :    0.00    0.00    0.04      0.04     0.00     0.00

                      :

                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)

World 2/              :

            July      :    2.65   40.15    8.98     40.32     9.02     2.43

          August      :    2.75   40.82    8.84     40.97     8.99     2.45

United States         :

            July      :    1.32    8.51    0.05      7.85     0.95     1.08

          August      :    1.44    8.53    0.05      7.89     0.95     1.18

Total foreign         :

            July      :    1.32   31.64    8.92     32.47     8.07     1.35

          August      :    1.31   32.29    8.79     33.08     8.03     1.27

  Major exporters 3/  :

            July      :    0.69   15.92    0.45      9.56     6.79     0.71

          August      :    0.67   16.08    0.45      9.84     6.72     0.64

   Argentina      Jul :    0.21    7.40    0.00      2.13     5.20     0.27

                  Aug :    0.16    7.52    0.00      2.23     5.20     0.25

   Brazil         Jul :    0.33    6.29    0.05      5.10     1.29     0.28

                  Aug :    0.35    6.33    0.05      5.25     1.22     0.26

   EU-27          Jul :    0.16    2.23    0.40      2.33     0.30     0.16

                  Aug :    0.16    2.23    0.40      2.36     0.30     0.13

  Major importers 4/  :

            July      :    0.36   10.88    3.38     14.21     0.07     0.32

          August      :    0.33   11.33    3.37     14.65     0.07     0.31

   China          Jul :    0.20    9.52    2.15     11.58     0.07     0.22

                  Aug :    0.20    9.95    2.15     12.01     0.07     0.22

   India          Jul :    0.15    1.36    1.19      2.60     0.00     0.10

                  Aug :    0.12    1.39    1.18      2.60     0.00     0.08

   Pakistan       Jul :    0.00    0.00    0.04      0.04     0.00     0.00

                  Aug :    0.00    0.00    0.04      0.04     0.00     0.00

===============================================================================

1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which

are adjusted to an October-September year.  2/ World imports and exports may

not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags

between reported exports and imports.  Therefore, world supply may not equal

world use.  3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU.  4/ India, China and Pakistan.

 

 

 

                               WASDE-485-31            August 2010

                 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/

===============================================================================

   Year  :      :      :  Red :       :      :  Total:   Red  :       :       :

   and   :      :      : meat :       :      :poultry: meat & :       :       :

quarter  : Beef : Pork :  2/  :Broiler:Turkey:    3/ : poultry:  Egg  :  Milk :

===============================================================================

         :                   Million pounds                    Mil doz  Bil lbs

    2009 :

    III  :   6690   5700  12464    9172   1417    10725   23189    1880    46.8

     IV  :   6426   5996  12504    8827   1441    10385   22889    1924    46.3

 Annual  :  25965  22999  49274   35511   5663    41674   90947    7534   189.3