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January 2011 Archive for Hedging Corn and Soybeans

RSS By: Howard Tyllas, AgWeb.com

Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.

March Soybeans Dailynumbers & Trade Ideas for 1/19/11

Jan 19, 2011

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This report was sent to subscribers on 1/18/11 2:45 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/19/11. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

March Soybeans

After the close recap on 1/19/11: My resistance was 14.32 1/2, .00 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 14.07, .04 3/4 from the actual low.

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14.32 ½   

--------------14.19 ¾         Pivot

14.07                              

  

  Use the same numbers as used on 1/14 & 18/11

Trend

5 day chart...       Up from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   ....  Up

Weekly chart ... Up

Monthly chart    Up          $10.97 is the 200 DMA

ATR 28                              Overbought 75%

soybeans 1 19 11

I still say "Uptrend line is support at $13.45. Report day contract high is resistance, and my daily numbers resist".

March Soybeans for 1/19/11

I still say "Bulls remain in control as long as the uptrend line holds which is near $13.45 today".  

In my daily soybean numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .02 ½ from the actual high; my support was .01 ¼ from the actual low.

1/19/11:       

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. My idea to trade without bias always works well when both support and resistance is spot on. My preference to sell resistance was a good trade idea in soybeans that worked well. Corn would have produced a small winner.

Looks like corn is working its way higher not only on the charts, but in search of a price that will slow down usage as the fundamentals clearly show is needed. Cattle prices were on fire Tuesday, and crude oil is not going down with a strong stock market to help support it. Too much demand and too little supply to stay on this road, and higher prices is the only cure to cool demand. $7 for old crop corn is possible but I am still looking for my objective of $6.80. Taking some profits if long in some way such as reducing contract size, have a put strategy, or sell a call above at your target and get paid for holding your position is the prudent thing to do. Being long $1 lower without protection was one thing, at these price levels it is another.

I am bullish but I am also aware that the funds are now holding a record position in corn. At some price higher, this will be an issue that could take away profits in a heartbeat. The higher we go the less I want to be long, and the lower we go the more I want to buy. Have a risk reward plan, but I have no reason to want to be a seller except for a day trade. I want to continue to risk $.04 in corn and $.07 in soybeans and trade the numbers without bias, but want to sell resistance levels more than I want to buy supports today.  

1/18/11:

Grains look good on good volume tonight with corn being the leader. Soybeans traded almost exactly down to my first support (off .01 ¼) before finding support and going higher to my pivot which acts as resistance, and was off only $.00 ¼ as I write. It looks like corn will grind higher to start the week, but I do not think we will end above here on Friday. If December corn can get to $5.80 today, putting another hedge or 2 on would not hurt when talking about locking in $.60 of record profits. I would look at..... SUBSCRIBE NOW!! I am now back at home in Chicago from Thailand.

1/17/11:       

Grains: since 11/11/10 I have said I was looking for $6.80 corn, and have stuck with that and not changed my opinion except now $7 is more than possible, but rather when. We have 10 weeks until planting intentions, and the focus for the near term is production in SA, the dollar, and crude oil. Rationing has yet to occur with high ethanol prices and record cattle prices, amid tight supplies.

Charts are bullish, beans and corn playing leapfrog higher, funds adding to their position to the extent that are approaching record levels of ownership, and a fundamental story that keeps my thoughts of $6.60 to $6.80 old crop corn alive, and maybe a run at..... SUBSCRIBE NOW!! The all time high on the continuous front month corn charts is $7.61, and pressing that now would not be close to reality. I want to take profits the closer we get to my objectives, and not risk more if we go down first, than what is left to the objective. I do not want to risk more than $.20 to get the last $.30.

I will say that March corn traded as high as $6.52 in the "modified session" which traded about 10 minutes after the market closed at 1:15 Chicago time. Futures Flight does have access to this session for clients with accounts on the book. I am looking for higher prices down the road, but today I would trade the numbers without bias (but prefer to sell resistances) and risk $.04 in corn and $.07 in soybeans on any trade idea using a stop to protect.

Looking at the February corn options that expire this Friday, There is an open interest of 11,792 contracts at the call strike of $6.50, and then nothing to speak of down to $6.20 which has 11,240.  There are only 830 $6.50 puts and really nothing down to $6.20 where there are 5,484. I do not think the market will be above $6.50 this Friday, and if we do there is a risk of being sharply lower on Monday after options turn into futures. I think we are likely to be around $6.20, and soybeans at $14 are my guess for this Friday.

Producers who are..... SUBSCRIBE NOW!!. The options protected you and allowed you to go after and get a higher price than before.

The 2011 December corn hedge strategy of SUBSCRIBE NOW!! I would ... subscibe now!! I am all for protecting some downside, and have the ability to make more if higher.

The 2011 November soybean.....  subscribe now!! This option strategy will not lose what the bin gains as we move higher, and can morph at any time. This can only lose $.21 (from settlement) if the market is between $13 and $15 on expiration, but protects $.80 down and allows $2 upside unscathed.

There is no other way I know that compares to using an option strategy, because with options you can truly reflect exactly what you think the market will do and have the time needed for your idea to work or not. An example would be, let's say you think the market is going nowhere and will be within $.10 of where it is today in a month from now. How can you make money trading a futures contract with that trade idea? You cannot, because if you are right the market will be unchanged and no matter long or short you will be even. Who buys or sells something anyway if they do not think the market will move in that direction? But with options, you could sell a put spread below the market, and sell a call spread above the market. No matter what, one spread must expire worthless, because the market cannot be higher and the call spread in the money without the put spread being worthless, and if the put spread is in the money, the call spread would be worthless. On Friday the market is at $6.49, I could sell a March $7/$7.50 call spread and sell a $6/$5.50 put spread and collect $.14 ½. The most either spread could be worth is $.50, and I got $.14 ½. If the market does not go up or down more than $.50 in the next 5 weeks they will both expire worthless. Of course I can cover (exit) any part of this spread whenever I want to. My trade idea is the market can be up or down from here, but I do not know which way, but my bet is that it will not move more than $.50 on expiration.

Options can and will reflect your mind better than anything that I know of out there. It also has built in parameters of margin, risk and possible rewards. You must have a conviction, or you are no different than a bettor at the window who has no idea of who they want to bet, so I will tell you, WALK AWAY from the window until you do. Walk away for a speculator is to stand aside until a trade idea takes place, and for a producer it means to hedge and take some off the table and allow the parameters reflecting your thoughts. Decide what downside you want, and what upside you want, and the search for the best strikes become easy.

Speculators and producers should also keep track of the bullish strategies in my past commentaries and how well they have worked out. You need to have reason when selecting your strategy and known risk strategies will keep you out of trouble if the unimaginable happens.

1/14/11:       

Grains: Spot on grain numbers. Corn looked good today; soybeans looked like they ran out of steam. Looking at the chart back in November following that bullish report, I would think we were not far from posting a similar correction soon. I am bullish and think higher prices are to come, but at the same time I ask myself, would I feel as good making another $.50 from here, as I would not feel as good if they go down $.50 instead? For me keeping the $.50 just made is more important than making another $.50. I do want to make another $.50, but at this stage of the bull market, giving up something such as ......SUBSCRIBE!! .....When this happens the results are the same, you make more money. When wrong in my strategy, instead of losing more than you thought (does not happen with my strategy) you actually make money. When right I make money, and when I am really wrong, I make money too.

Speculators and especially my producers I want to be responsible by saying, I would continue to hedge on the way up, and your bullishness can be reflected in the strategy you choose, but remember, gambling must have a risk management at all times, and all bets are not created equal. Make sure your wager is appropriate for your account size and income. A mile is not a mile in futures trading. Think of it as a marathon race. When you run the sixth to seventh mile you have and exert a certain amount of energy, but when in the 16th and 17th mile, it takes much more energy to run the same "mile". As the futures market climbs higher attempting to find the highest price that will be paid before demand destroys itself due to the high price, and the ability to actually buy and make money using it, the energy it takes to move higher increases.

Buying $.60 to the downside in corn, and $1 in soybeans seems to be enough protection, ....SUBSCRIBE NOW!! You can do the same thing as a speculator if you so desire and are long the futures contract.

Numbers are in, the dollar and crude oil will have an influence on prices over the next 2 months, but I do not care day to day about what they are doing. Export program is quiet now and no help to the bulls, I will keep my eye on this for a longer term impact on carryout. Battle for acreage should keep prices supported the next 2 months, and production in SA will also be a significant factor in the near term. I do not care what brings these markets to my objectives, I want to take advantage of it, and that means to take profits as these markets enter the target area. I want to trade the numbers without bias, but the higher we go from here, the more I want to play it from the short side with less contract size used on this contra trend trade. I want to risk $.05 in corn and $.08 in soybeans using a stop to protect, which is more than enough room for now.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yrTBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

  BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

WASDE REPORT 1/12/11

Jan 12, 2011

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WASDE Report 1/12/11

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is estimated at 100.5 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month. Lower crops for soybeans, sunflower seed, and canola are only partly offset by increases for peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production is estimated at 3.329 billion bushels, down 46 million bushels based on reduced harvested area and lower yields. The soybean yield is estimated at 43.5 bushels per acre, down from last year's record of 44 bushels per acre. Soybean crush is lowered 10 million bushels to 1.655 billion bushels. However, higher projected extraction rates for soybean meal and oil leaves production of both products nearly unchanged. Soybean exports are projected at a record 1.590 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.

The 2010/11 U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.20 to $12.20, up 50 cents on the lower end of the range. However, early season marketing's priced below current cash price levels are expected to limit the upside potential for the weighted average price received by producers. The soybean oil price is forecast at 48 to 52 cents per pound, up 3 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $320 to $360 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.4 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 255.5 million tons, down 2.3 million. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month due to lower projected yields. Although recent rains will help producer's complete planting, earlier periods of unfavorable dryness have compromised yield potential, especially in some of the major producing areas. Paraguay soybean production is raised 0.5 million tons to 7 million due to increased area and favorable yield prospects. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2010/11 are reduced 2 million tons to 68.3 million with Argentina and U.S. soybean stocks accounting for most of the change.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected down reflecting lower corn production. U.S. corn production is estimated 93 million bushels lower as a 1.5-bushel-per-acre reduction in the national average yield outweighs a 183,000-acre increase in harvested area. A 5-million-bushel increase in projected U.S. corn imports slightly offsets the reduction in output. Corn feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels offsetting the reduction in expected feed and residual use. Record December ethanol production, as indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration data, boosts corn use to date.

Ending corn stocks for 2010/11 are projected 87 million bushels lower at 745 million. This is down 963 million bushels from last year. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.5 percent, the lowest since 1995/96 when it dropped to 5.0 percent. The 2010/11 marketing-year average farm price projection is raised 10 cents on both ends of the range to $4.90 to $5.70 per bushel as cash and futures prices are expected to strengthen. Heavy early season marketing's of corn priced well below current cash price levels are expected to limit the upside potential for the weighted average price received by producers.

Global 2010/11 coarse grain supplies are projected lower this month with reduced corn, sorghum, oats, and rye production only partly offset by higher projected barley production in Argentina and EU-27. Global corn production is lowered 4.7 million tons with the U.S. reduction and a 1.5-million-ton decrease for Argentina as untimely, persistent dryness during late December and early January reduces yield prospects in key central growing areas. Smaller reductions in corn output are also projected for Indonesia and Turkey, each down 0.4 million tons. Global sorghum production is lowered with a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Brazil based on the latest government estimates. Brazil oats production is lowered slightly in line with government estimates. Russia oats and rye production are lowered 0.3 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, based on the latest government indications.

Global 2010/11 coarse grain trade is lowered as higher expected prices and tighter supplies reduce corn imports and exports. Corn imports are lowered for South Korea, Turkey, and the Philippines, but raised for Indonesia. Corn exports are reduced for Argentina and Turkey, with a partly offsetting increase for Canada. Global corn consumption is lowered mostly reflecting reduced feeding in South Korea and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.0 million tons lower with more than two-thirds of the reduction in the United States.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 40 million bushels lower this month as a reduction in expected feed and residual use is more than offset by higher projected exports. Feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels lower as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks, indicate lower-than-expected disappearance during September-November. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and reduced competition with lower foreign supplies of milling quality wheat. At the projected 1.3 billion bushels, exports would be the highest since 1992/93. Most of the increase is expected in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheats, but exports are also raised slightly for Hard Red Spring and white wheats. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at $5.50 to $5.80 per bushel, up from $5.30 to $5.70 per bushel last month.

Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are raised slightly this month as increased beginning stocks are mostly offset by lower foreign production. Beginning stocks for Argentina are up 0.9 million tons with upward revisions to 2008/09 and 2009/10 production estimates. Argentina production is also raised 0.5 million tons for 2010/11 as harvest results indicate higher-than-expected yields. Production in Brazil is raised 0.4 million tons as favorably dry harvest weather boosted yields for the 2010/11 crop. EU-27 production is raised 0.3 million tons based on the latest official estimates for Poland. More than offsetting these increases are reductions for Kazakhstan and Australia. Kazakhstan production is lowered 1.3 million tons based on the latest government reports. Australia production is lowered 0.5 million tons as heavy late-December rains and flooding further increased crop losses in Queensland.

World wheat imports and exports for 2010/11 are both raised slightly. South Korea imports are raised 0.4 million tons, mostly offsetting an expected reduction in corn imports. Imports are also raised 0.2 million tons each for Thailand and Vietnam based on the pace of shipments to date and the increased availability of feed quality wheat in Australia. Imports are lowered 0.5 million tons for EU-27 based on the slow pace of import licenses to date. Major shifts among exporters are projected as importers focus on U.S. supplies to meet their milling needs. Australia exports are reduced 1.5 million tons as quality problems limit export opportunities. Kazakhstan exports are reduced 1.0 million tons with lower supplies. While Argentina marketing-year (December-November) exports are raised 0.5 million tons, exports during the remainder of the July-June world trade year are expected to be lower based on the slow pace of government export licensing.

Global 2010/11 wheat consumption is projected 1.2 million tons lower, mostly reflecting reduced wheat feeding in EU-27, the United States, and Kazakhstan. Food use is also lowered for EU-27 and Pakistan. Partly offsetting are increases in feed use in South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam, and higher expected residual loss in Australia with the rain-damaged crop. Global ending stocks are raised 1.3 million tons with increases for EU-27, Argentina, and Australia, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction.

COTTON: The U.S. cotton 2010/11 supply and demand estimates show minor revisions from last month. Production is raised 47,000 bales, due mainly to increases for California and Georgia. Domestic mill use is raised 50,000 bales to 3.6 million, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in recent months. Exports and ending stocks are unchanged. The forecast range of 78 to 86 cents per pound for the average price received by producers is raised 2 cents on the lower end, as monthly prices reported by NASS continue to rise.

This month's world cotton 2010/11 estimates include lower beginning stocks and production and higher consumption, resulting in a 560,000-bale reduction in ending stocks. Global production is reduced marginally as increases for Brazil and Turkmenistan are more than offset by reductions for Syria and others. World consumption is raised slightly, reflecting an increase for India and reductions for Pakistan and Syria. World trade is reduced marginally.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The estimate of 2010 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, reflecting higher production of beef, pork, broilers, and turkey. The forecast of production for 2011 is also raised for beef and broilers, but lowered for pork. The turkey production forecast is unchanged from last month. The increase in beef production reflects large placements of cattle during the fourth quarter of 2010 which will be ready for slaughter during mid-2011. USDA will release its Cattle report on January 28 providing an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention in 2011 and feeder cattle availability. Broiler production forecasts are adjusted to reflect relatively heavy bird weights. Pork production is reduced slightly for 2011. USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to farrow fewer sows in the first half of 2011 but continued strong growth in the number of pigs per litter implies relatively abundant supplies of hogs for slaughter will be available during 2011. Higher forecast hog weights will also partly offset the effects of lower farrowings on pork production, but recent increases in weights are not expected to be sustained during the year. The forecast of egg production is unchanged from last month.

The forecast for beef exports for both 2010 and 2011 is unchanged from last month but the forecast of beef imports is lowered as a weak U.S. dollar and tight supplies in several exporting countries limit shipments. The pork export forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are reduced slightly from last month as higher pork prices are expected to more than offset weakness in the U.S. dollar. The broiler export forecast is raised for 2010 but the 2011 forecast is unchanged from last month.

The cattle price forecast for 2011 is raised to reflect continued strong demand for cattle and tightening supplies of fed cattle. Hog prices for 2011 are forecast higher as demand for hogs remains strong. The broiler price forecast is lowered on larger supplies of broilers and competing meats. Egg prices are forecast higher.

RICE: The U.S. 2010/11 rice crop is estimated at 243.1 million cwt, up 1.5 million or 0.6 percent from the previous estimate due to increased yields. Average yield is estimated at 6,725 pounds per acre, up 56 pounds per acre from last month, but a decline of 360 pounds per acre from the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.615 million acres, down 8,000 acres from the previous estimate. Long-grain rice production is estimated at a record 183.3 million cwt, up 1.8 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is fractionally lowered to 59.8 million. All rice imports for 2010/11 are lowered 1.5 million cwt to 18 million with the decline all in long grain. The pace of imports based on U.S. Census Bureau data through October is lagging, principally due to reductions from Thailand and India.

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yrTBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 1/6 & 5/11

Jan 07, 2011

top1

This report was sent to subscribers on 1/5/11 5:45 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 1/6/11. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box

March Corn

After the close recap on 1/6/11: My pivot acted as resistance and was 6.19 3/4, .01 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 6.00 1/4, the EXACT actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

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 Sign Up for Learn a better way to hedge for farmers After you learn (No costs or fees) I will execute your hedges with you on the phone with a floor broker on the grain floor inside the pit trading. You will hear bids and offers and can direct or change your order.

 March Corn                  

6.34                           

------------- 6.19 ¾            Pivot

6.05 ½                           

6.00 ¼                             

      

Trend           

5 day chart........       Down from last week same day                                                                                                                                                   

Daily chart   ......     Up                       

Weekly chart .......  Up             

Monthly chart ....    Up       4.70 ½ is the 200 DMA

ATR 13 ¾                              Balanced 56%    

 

Corn 1 6 11

Minor uptrend line (not shown) came in at $6.05 on Tuesday and at $6.09 on Wednesday. This chart tells me to sell rallies, and look for a retest of the uptrend line at $5.85.

 March Corn for 1/6/11

I still say "Bulls need to stay above $6.27 top channel line". Bulls remain in control above $5.70.          

In my daily corn numbers on Wednesday; my resistance was .02 ¼ from the actual high, and my support was .03 ¼ from the actual low.

Grains: Spot on numbers. Now we will see if the market can follow through to the upside today. I was impressed with the way grains recovered from their overnight trade lower near their low of the day session, but rallied in open outcry to close near their highs in spite of a strong dollar. Maybe the crude oil factor had something to do with it. No matter what the reason the grains posted an impressive day, with the funds buying back 12,000 corn contracts after selling 11,000 the day before. We again are near the soybean contract highs, and corn resistance of the top channel line. Action today will give me a better clue if we will make new contract highs before the report. I think it is a toss of the coin from here if we will be up or down from here on Friday's settlement, unlike the chart of just yesterday when it looked more certain. I want to trade the market with a bearish bias today, only because we are near contract highs. I want to risk $.04 in corn and $.07 in soybeans using a buy stop to protect.

Results for 1/5/11:

My soybean resistance was .06 ½ from the actual high, and my support was .03 ¾ from the actual low.

My corn resistance was .02 ¼ from the actual high, and my support was .03 ¼ from the actual low.

My nat gas resistance was .027 from the actual high and my support was .024 from the actual low.

My crude oil resistance was .69 from the actual high, and my support was .38 from the actual low.

My S&P resistance was 1.25 from the actual high and my support was .50 from the actual low.

My bonds resistance was 4 from the actual high, and my support was 2 from the actual low.

My gold resistance was 4.20 from the actual high and my support was 2.40 from the actual low.

March Corn for 1/5/11

Grains: Spot on corn numbers, and accurate soybean numbers. You can read in my comments since the last week of the year, I knew or should I say felt because of my charts, that there was more risk to the downside, than what is left on the upside. I am still bullish the chart and fundamentals are clearly bullish, but it is hard to predict when the fund selling will stop. They are the key to price action, and the charts help me with the task of indicating when corrections will begin and when they could end. Uptrend lines are the places that find support, where I can risk a little when they do not hold, and have a nice reward when they do. The corn chart told me to sell on Tuesday, even if I am bullish, and I clearly explained the reason why. They broke the trend line and closed below it on Monday, and went to it (a little higher) on Tuesday night, but remained below the uptrend line which indicates a nice place to sell (what was support is now resistance when violated). Looking at Wednesday, the charts tell me to sell this market at resistance, and that includes the pivot, and stay short as long as the top uptrend channel line is not hurdled. This type of bull charts have a tendency to hang around for a day or two and look like they will recover, but resume the correction and test a key support. It is the facts that the bulls feel complacent having big gains and stick around longer than they should. It is the "when it gets back to the settlement of yesterday (or whatever) I will sell then" that starts the trouble, because they find themselves giving back let's say $.20 more looking to sell $.10 or $.20 higher, and then they want to sell where they could have a day or two ago, but it gets another $.10 or $.20 lower. By the time it gets to a real support, they are scrambling to sell to save what profits they just made in the last few weeks, and that is where they could have thought about buying back instead of selling for money management reasons if nothing else.

With the report next Wednesday though, anything can happen before then. The only trouble I have seen and it has not really mattered, is the huge fund position in corn. But that is the risk, and the chance (but I do not expect it) for the report to show a bearish surprise, or like in November, a perfect time to take some risk off the table by selling a bullish report.

It would not surprise me to see a rally today, but it is how they finish the week I am interested in. It looks like we will be lower than the settlement on Tuesday by then. At this point of time, they will be influenced in their decision by taking cues from crude oil and the dollar. Not every day or week mind you, but for now I think it will matter, especially if crude gets weaker, and the dollar gets stronger.

My producers realize what it means to take some protection, no matter if it means "paying for insurance", because if nothing else it gives them a less stressful life if the market corrects, and they still can pursue a higher price in time. How much, and when is entirely up to them, I do not get paid to tell them what to do, I am here though to tell them how to reflect exactly what THEY think by providing option strategies based upon THEIR thoughts and ideas, not mine. The daily service DOES tell them what I think, and should be used in consideration with their own ideas. I do not play on their greed or fear, and earn every dollar charged for commissions, when executing their option orders when they decide to do something. (In my opinion I have the best execution service at the CBOT. My producers and I are on the phone using a 3 way call with my friend inside the option pit who is executing their order. They can actually hear the bids and offers.)

As I said on Tuesday "I am in day trading mode today,

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yrTBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

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The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

 

 

January Soybean & March Corn Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 12/31/10

Jan 03, 2011

top1

This report was sent to subscribers on 12/29/10 1:10 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/31/10. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

How did you do in 2010? Do not be penny wise and dollar follish. Try my service and see why people have been subscribing for years now.

Results for 12/31/10:

My soybean resistance was .09 ¼ from the actual low, and my support was .03 from the actual high.

My corn resistance was .03 ½ from the actual low, and my support was .00 ¾ from the actual high.

My nat gas resistance was .007 the actual low and my support was .024 from the actual high.

My crude oil resistance was .18 the actual low, and my support was .03 from the actual high.

My bonds resistance was 5 from the actual low, and my support was 1 from the actual high.

 My gold resistance was 6.60 the actual low and my support was 1.70 from the actual high.

My S&P resistance was 2.50 from the actual low and my support was .50 from the actual high.

January Soybeans

After the close recap on 12/31/10: My resistance was 13.85 1/4, .09 1/4 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 13.63 1/2, .03 from the actual low.

March Corn 

After the close recap on 12/31/10: My resistance was 6.26 1/2, .03 1/2 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 6.16 1/2, .00 3/4 from the actual low.

Subscribe now! Do yourself a favor and get your numbers after the market is closed to be used for the next session trading. Ask yourself how much would it have been worth to read my comments and get my numbers 14 hours before today's open outcry?

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13.85 ¼ XX              

13.77 ½               

--------------13.63 ½           Pivot

13.49 ½  

13.39 ¼

      Use the same numbers as used on 12/30/10

Trend                   

5 day chart...       Up       from last week same day                                                

Daily chart   ....  Up                     

Weekly chart ... Up                

Monthly chart    Up        $10.63 ½ is the 200 DMA

ATR 22 ½                        Overbought 81%  

Bean 12 31 10

I continue to say "Highest close on the nearby (spot month) chart since July 2008. Bracket line is pivotal at $13.63, weekly and daily numbers resists". This week's low is support. New steep uptrend line was broken and that bodes well for more downward correction, unless stays above $13.63 bracket line.          

January Soybeans for 12/31/10 I said "Bulls remain in control as long as the uptrend line holds which is near $12.85 this week". 

In my daily soybean numbers on Thursday; my resistance was .03 1/2 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was .04 from the actual low.

  March Corn

 

6.26 ½ XX                            

------------- 6.16 ½            Pivot

6.06 ½                               

6.00

      

Trend          

5 day chart........       Up from last week same day                                                                                                                                                   

Daily chart   ......     Up                       

Weekly chart .......  Up             

Monthly chart ....    Up       4.66 ¼ is the 200 DMA

ATR 11 ½                              Overbought 74%    

Corn 12 31 10

I continue to say "Highest close on the nearby (spot month) chart since July 2008. The top uptrend line acts as a pivot now. These lines that were started months ago are not random as you can see for yourself". 

March Corn chart comments for 12/31/10 New steep uptrend line was broken and that bodes well for more downward correction, unless stays above $6.20 top channel line.          

In my daily corn numbers on Thursday; my pivot acted as resistance and was .00 ¾ from the actual high, and my support was the EXACT actual low.    

12/31/10:

Grains: Spot on numbers! Corn market gave you more than 15 minutes to sell and risk $.04 or less on the trade idea. If you wanted to buy, the market kept you out of trouble once again, and with the risk of buying a few cents above the pivot if the pivot did not hold, the numbers and the market provided a buy near the exact low of the day saving you maybe $.10. The pivot provided a perfect sell in the night and within $.02 in the day session for those who wanted to go short (including hedging). This is what the numbers have always done for me as a trader. If I wanted to be a buyer, since the market was under the pivot I would have sold a few contracts, but if the market was above the pivot I would have bought 20. I would have taken what I could using a 5 minute bar chart to supplement my daily numbers to get a "buy stop" to protect the profits I had. No matter what, if the market was near my support number (which was the exact low for the day), I would have taken profit on the few, and would have bought the "many". As a day trader, I would have sold all that I had bought in the last 5 minutes of trade to end the day for a small profit. Tomorrow is a new day, with new numbers, and I assume no risk overnight.

My numbers are the main reason I have stayed in this game for so long, and they are what I feel gives me a great advantage. The other reasons are my mindset of being a casino getting the odds instead of a player trying to beat the odds, and a solid risk reward based solely on my numbers holding or not. The ability to EXECUTE my plan is indeed the bottom line, because you can know everything, but if you cannot utilize it, it is worthless. With a mind that is high in abstract reasoning, options was an easy vehicle for me to use, and got me past where I wanted to go. Options are a big advantage to futures, but without knowledge they are most likely to end in disaster. The knowledge it takes is not at all hard to learn for what a speculator or producer needs to learn to empower them, and I am more than willing to teach what applies to you. Have a question, email me and I will answer, and also use it in my daily numbers service. With all the subscribers and all the possible questions, I only get a handful per year. I have spent much time with my producers, but they have it down for the most part, and have questions at times when the market has really moved and "morphing" is in their picture. With commission generated brokers and the like, I think it will be harder to find the information best suited for what you want to do, due to lack of their knowledge, lack of time needed to teach you at your own speed, and the possible commissions driven advice that could be best for them, and not for you. Remember, they only need a home study course, and a month or two to study, and they are licensed as a series 3 broker and ready to assist you in answering all your questions, and providing their opinion and knowledge when you call upon them. There is something to knowledge, wisdom, and experience, but being a foot soldier in the trenches is a world apart from reading about it in a book.

I drew the steep uptrend lines which indicate to me more risk to the downside. Thin holiday trade does not take much to move a market, but what happens after Friday, is anyone's guess except if you know the big fund managers, and they will share with you that information. If they did share it with you, that would be called "front running" and is highly unethical as it is illegal. My guess is that they will sell corn, and maybe buy soybeans. I am bullish for next year both corn and soybeans, but it is prudent to lock in profits by protecting the downside, and allow for more upside.

135+ words here, want to know what I said, Subscribe Now!!

Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?

The 7 markets now covered daily are Soybeans, Corn, Crude oil, S&P, 30 yr TBond, Gold, and Nat gas

My numbers usually are sent at least 12 hours (via your email) in advance of the next day open outcry session. Subscribers use them as best suited to their own needs and sometimes that involves the overnight trade.

 Find out why my subscribers from Canada, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, Switzerland, South Korea ,Turkey  and the UK keep renewing this service.

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas cover 8 markets for less than $10 a day,

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas is designed to help you plan your trading strategies for the coming day.

$199.00 USD for each month, renewable monthly

HowardTyllas Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas $ 199.00

The weekly service is "Monday only" and comes out usually by Saturday morning so you can prepare for Sunday night and Monday's trade.

Weekly Service: 13 weeks for $129 total subscription fee.

 

Feel free to email with any comments or question you:  www.howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com

www.farmerhedge.com 

www.howardtyllas.com          

www.futuresflight.com 

 

           May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            

   BT

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.

 

 

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