Chip Flory

From The Editor

June 14, 2013

Hello Pro Farmer Members!

Be sure to check the Crop Tour web page. Our crop reporters from Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska updated their reports this week!

Remember last year? (Ha! Of course you do...) The corn crop turned out about as we expected after the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, but the bean crop beat our crop estimate. The reason: Bean seed size. A rain in the fourth week of August gave the crop an extra kick and added yield by building a bigger bean.

That was true for the beans you sold... and it's true for the beans you've bought and stuck back in the ground for the 2013 crop. And now that it's late, you should be seeding at an even higher rate and the bigger beans are making the seed a little more costly than in a normal year. It's not a huge increase in costs, but it is another consideration when planting beans this late.

According to data from the University of Minnesota, late-planting of soybeans does carry a significant yield penalty. Beans planted by May 10 have 100% of yield potential. Beans planted on May 20 have about 97% of yield potential. If beans aren't planted until May 30, Minnesota growers are looking at yield potential of about 91% of maximum. Now it starts to get serious - beans not planted until June 10 have yield potential of 82% of maximum. If beans don't get planted until June 20, Minnesota growers would be planting beans with about 70% of yield potential.

Those late-planting yield penalties, however, assume at least average growing conditions. Poor growing conditions can trim even more off the yield potential.

Several PF Members have reported "damping-off" of soybeans this spring. Wet, cool conditions contribute to early seedling death shortly after plants emerge. That, however, isn't a major concern, unless of course a high percentage of the plants are damping off. Bean plants have a remarkable ability to recover and will grow to the space provided. Early planted beans with lots of space will form a lot of nodes and branches to carry a lot of pods.

Beans planted late won't "bush-out" like earlier planted beans and don't have nearly the number of nodes. For those that don't grow beans, nodes are darn important on a bean plant - that's where branches form, but it's also where pods form. The more the nodes on a plant, the greater the opportunity for the plant to form pods. Because late-planted beans don't form as many nodes, agronomists recommend increasing the seeding rate at this time of the year. That gives you a chance to have fewer nodes per plant, but the same number of nodes per acre by having more plants per acre.

That's it for now...

 We can always use more farmers to come on the Midwest Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour to provide much-needed perspective on crop conditions we see while on the road. If you've been thinking about coming on Tour, this is a great year to start! Drop me an e-mail and I'll make sure you get all the info you need to come along this year.

Follow me on Twitter at @ChipFlory

To join Pro Farmer, click here!

Chip Flory

From The Editor

June 7, 2013

Hello Pro Farmer Members!

I'll admit... I was shocked when I looked at the table from Iowa State University that estimates the impact of late-planting on corn yields. Corn planted today at 35,000 population through June 15 in Iowa would have just 54% of its maximum yield potential. That's roughly equal to corn planted May 5-15 at just 10,000 plants per acre. Scary stuff... and that help makes it exceptionally clear why many growers consider a Prevented Plant claim to be their best option at this time. Making the PP claim even more attractive is that many growers carry 80% or even 85% Revenue Protection, rather than the 75% RP many are using in examples.

This is also the first time for many (almost all) Iowa corn growers to consider PP... and they're impressed by the financial certainty the PP claim provides. Potential revenue from switching to soybeans might be close in revenue, but it doesn't have the financial certainty that a PP claim does. That's making it very attractive to many growers that are trying to move bean seed from the tender to the dirt, but waterlogged fields are making it impossible to do!

That was one of my learning experiences this week... here's another: Lower-quality soils in the wettest areas of the Midwest look like they'll perform better than the high-quality soils. It kind of makes sense... lower-quality soils have lower water-holding capacity and, therefore, are draining better than thick, black dirt.

And it's very clear where tile lines are this year. Soils above and close to tile lines drain more quickly than points furthest way from the tiles. Over and near tiles, corn plants are developing much more quickly than plants furthest away from tiles. But, there's plenty of people that assume the later-developing corn will catch up and yield won't be hurt "that bad."

If the corn will "catch up," then why were yield monitors and yield mapping the BEST tile-selling campaign EVER for the drainage industry!?!

When yield monitors were first put on combines and started collecting data from every inch of fields, and that data was digitally mapped for the first time, growers started noticing streaks of higher yields alternating with areas of lower yields. Most figured it out right away... others had to make a trip to the field.

The higher-yield streaks were the areas above and near tile lines... lower yielding areas were the spaces between tile line. The result? More tile! Instead of tile every 120-foot across a field, most cut it in half by dropping in another line down the middle. Some cut it even further by dropping two evenly spaced lines in the 120-foot space. If they already had a line every 60-foot, some even cut that in half.

It's hard telling how many bushels were lost in the decades before the tile explosion... which is why we can EASILY say we've lost more bushels to too much water than we have to drought over the last several decades. You've got to move the water (not moisture) away from the root zone, but even the doubled and tripled amount of tile in the country compared to 20 years ago isn't enough to move water from record high April-May rainfall totals in Iowa.

So... while the corn between the tile lines this year that is clearly behind corn over and near tile lines right now might appear to catch up, I'll bet you a dollar right now the yield maps will show the tile-line yield streaks this fall.

Here's another thing I learned this week: Corn started tasseling in the Gulf states this week. A friend in Mississippi called to let me know. The crop there was generally planted on time, and then it started to rain. Corn got off to a quick start, and actually grew too quickly to let some guys into the field to sidedress nitrogen. One of this friend's neighbors was actually flying on urea and spreading 100 lbs. per acre over chest-high corn. (I guess he doesn't have access to a Hi-Boy!)

Another one: Anhydrous applicators might end up being an important tillage tool this spring. I knew that saturated soils are devoid of oxygen and no oxygen means no root growth or nutrient up-take. Some are considering using the anhydrous knives to open up soil to air it out -- well, actually air it IN. They say the knife is the perfect tool to use because a field cultivator might clip roots that are growing horizontally rather than down.

That's it for now...

 Have a great weekend!

Follow me on Twitter at @ChipFlory

To join Pro Farmer, click here!

Chip Flory

From The Editor

May 31, 2013

Hello Pro Farmer Members!

It's May 31. Do you know where your seedcorn is?

Unfortunately for many growers in the western Corn Belt, the seedcorn is still in the bag. Or, if you've got water sitting in fields or trenches cut by the last downpour, you might be happy that seed is still in the bag.

Regardless, many western Belt growers - and some in Illinois - now have a choice to make. But don't feel like you have to make the decision right now. There are many misunderstandings of the Prevented-Plant option on crop insurance, but I do know you do not have to make your decision within 72 hours of the final plant date on your policy. Basically what happens is your coverage is reduced by 1 percentage point per day for the first 25 days after the final plant date. At any time in that period you can decide to plant corn at reduced coverage; to plant beans (with full insurance coverage up to the final planting date for beans) or to file a Prevented-Plant claim. And even after you file the Prevented Plant claim, that claim can be erased by planting a crop (either the insured crop or an alternative crop).

Simple enough, right?

Well... no it's not simple. Economics come into play on this decision. Gary Schnitkey at the University of Illinois provided an example of the economic decision-making process. Be sure to check it out.

In this week's newsletter, we drop our corn planting expectations to 95 million acres. We present that with a lot of confidence in the newsletter, but it's still a moving target. And it depends on if USDA was right back in March when it estimated your corn-planting intentions of 97.3 million acres. But we are confident corn acres are being switched to soybeans. And we know many growers that have never filed a Prevented-Plant claim are getting themselves educated on the process. One of the Members called this morning to say, "I feel a lot better about the situation after talking with my agent. I'm comfortable with how the process works... and I don't think there's enough extra revenue in making the switch to beans to make it worthwhile."

Here's an update from a south-central Minnesota Pro Farmer Member: "I have been to prevent-planting meetings and I would guess that right in this area that about 70% of corn has been planted and 5% of beans. West of here and south of Minnesota River it is  higher; East of I35 there a lot who haven't turned a wheel or have planted very little. Nothing will happen here for a week with good weather. We have missed a lot of the big rains but get 2 to 4 tenths every day. I think a lot of corn will go to prevent plant or beans depending on your numbers and the weather."

So... figuring out total corn planted acres will be a tough job this year. We've got USDA's June Acreage Report coming up at the end of the month. Unfortunately because of the survey period, it will still include some planting intentions. But, that will be the number we'll have to work with until at least October.

That's it for now...

I've got to book out of here this afternoon. I coach a high school trap team and the State High School Championship Shoot is taking place right now. My squads shoot later this afternoon... wish us luck!

Follow me on Twitter at @ChipFlory

To join Pro Farmer, click here!

Chip Flory

From The Editor

May 24, 2013

Hello Pro Farmer Members!

Our quick Memorial Day message on the front of this week's newsletter is heartfelt. It's a sincere thank you for the sacrifice made by the families of our fallen Military and anybody that has served this country. And your Pro Farmer staff is sending prayers to the people in Moore, Oklahoma, as they recover from this week's tornado.

We had several "keeper" items in this week's Pro Farmer, but I want to talk further about a couple.

Our feature page was on the current confusing state of the cattle and beef markets. Record-high boxed beef values and contract lows in live cattle futures just don't make sense. We discuss the disconnect in depth, and then jump to what it might mean for the farm and general economies.

Record high beef prices with consumers still buying beef means they've accepted another price increase for beef. It used to be that beef prices and demand were a leading indicator of conditions in the general economy. If consumers were buying beef, and especially high-valued whole-muscle cuts (steak), it was generally a sign the economy was doing okay. OR - that the economy was stagnant, but prices for food, fuel and other items would climb. (In other words, inflation.)

With that in mind, the beef market's confusing "code" it is sending right now could be a little troubling. Consumers are accepting inflated beef prices compared to the raw commodity. If this trend extends into other sectors, it would mean weight on raw commodity prices and higher consumer prices... the start of general economic inflation.

The second "keeper" item in the letter this week was the update on Sea Surface Temps in the eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator. There are no "official" forecasts that La Nina will return this summer, but Iowa State University extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor is never one to wait for an "official" forecast before making one of his own. He sees La Nina returning by mid-June, which would likely be followed by a hotter- and drier-than-normal July and August in the Midwest.

Elwynn is comparing 2013 to the 1947 growing season. I haven't read enough about it or studied that season enough to know if he's wrong or right, but I trust Elwynn enough to take him at his word.

The year in my memory bank that would be a good comparison is 1995. That was the corn crop that launched the summer-1996 corn market rally to then-all-time highs. I'm not predicting new all-time highs, but I am saying we've got a lot to learn about the corn supply over the next four months... and corn demand over the next 18 months.

That's it for now...

I can't begin to tell you all how proud I am of my son Thomas. He graduates high school this weekend and is making plans to make a living (somehow, someway) in the outdoors/shooting industries. He's had quite a ride through life already and his next step into business school and a life supported by the stuff he enjoys so much will be unbelievably exciting! Congratulations T!

Follow me on Twitter at @ChipFlory

To join Pro Farmer, click here!

Chip Flory

From The Editor

May 17, 2013

Hello Pro Farmer Members!

I never realized how many people were experts at estimating corn yields at this time of the year! I'm not... I try to estimate yields at this time of the year but when I do it, I fully realize I'm likely wrong. Things change... and we've only really got two pieces of a very complicated puzzle right now.

First piece: A chunk of the Corn Belt has plenty of water to get the crop started.

Second piece: Probably one-third of the crop will be planted after even the latest "too-late" dates for corn planting.

Some still stick with May 10 as the "too-late" date... that maximum yield potential can't be hit on corn planted after May 10. In my opinion, genetics have pushed that date back... a bit. Improved management has pushed the date back several days, something I think will be proven again this year. Ahead of last week's rain, most farmers stayed in control and didn't start mudding in corn. A decade ago, the mud would have been flying. Instead, most farmers waited until conditions were at least close to fit before putting seed in the ground.

Soil conditions at planting time help improve germination rates and stand... and the Crop Tour tells us plant populations have helped improve yield more than any other factor in the past 10 years. Again, that's a combination of genetics and management.

I've moved the "too-late" date to May 20 in my analysis. Corn planted before May 20 can reach its maximum yield potential... if conditions are really good for the rest of the plant's life. Corn planted after May 20 probably won't pollinate until late July... which points to a late September black layer. (The plant reaches physiological maturity about 56 days after pollination). That means the crop will still be trying to add yield when days are getting too short to gather all the energy needed.

After the May 10 S&D Report that included USDA's first official yield projection of the year, it was amazing how many "sure-fire" yield models circulated social media. My favorite was this: "Corn planted by May 20 = 100% trendline yield; corn planted May 20 to June 1 = 90% trendline yield."

Whatever...

Some of the best perspective I've seen on the impact of late-planting was delivered this week by Roger Elmore and Elwynn Taylor from Iowa State University's Agronomy Department. We're all familiar with planting dates, analog-year analysis, and Growing Degree Days (GDD), but they used a term that's rarely heard: Stress Degree Days (SDDs). I'm a big-time believer in watching SDD accumulation. Basically, it measures how many days the crop was under stress due to a lack of moisture, high temperatures or a combination of the two.

The best example of SDDs impact on yield (in my opinion) was 1995. That year the crop was planted late due to excess moisture. Conditions after pollination were not good. Moisture stress was minimal in the first few weeks after pollination, but temperatures were hot. Above-normal daytime temps were common that year, but most important were the number of nights in which temps didn't fall below 70 degrees. That limits the plants ability to rest... and that rest break at night is when the plant turns the energy collected during the day into sugar. That sugar is turned into starch... and the more starch you can pack into the kernel the heavier the kernel weighs. Heavier kernels equals more yield.

More evidence of the importance of SDDs came in 2009. Very few SDDs were accumulated in 2009... conditions were generally cooler and wetter than normal after pollination. Plants stayed green very late into the year and kernels just kept gaining weight. Quality of the 2009 crop was poor and it refused to dry down in the field, but there were a lot of bushels! That was the result of a low level of SDDs.

That, however, doesn't mean planting date and soil conditions at planting aren't important. Now is when stand is being established and the number of seeds that successfully germinate will help determine how many ears are making grain later this year. But, what happens after pollination has much more to do with final yield than does planting date.

That's why my bottom line is this: Any yield estimate right now is just a guess. There's no "magic formula" for yields at this time of the year. Anybody that argues yield potential at this time of the year is arguing only for the sake of the argument. You can't even debate yields at this time of the year... there's just not enough information available.

And because there's no way of accurately predicting yield, there's no way of accurately predicting demand for the 2013 corn crop. In May of 2012, USDA predicted a 2012 national average corn yield of 166 bu. per acre and a 2012-13 corn carryover of 1.881 billion bushels. Those estimates were made by some of the smartest guys in the estimating business with access to unbelievable analytical firepower and they missed the yield by 42.6 bu. per acre and they overestimated carryover (as of the May 2013 S&D Report) by 1.122 billion bushels!

Oh... and USDA's May 2012 national average on-farm price prediction for the 2012-13 marketing year was $4.20 to $5.00 ($4.60 midpoint). In the May 2013 S&D Report, the average price estimate for 2012-crop corn is $6.70 to $7.10 ($6.90 midpoint).

Things change, don't they?

That's it for now...

My son Thomas' graduation reception is this weekend. I can't believe how the time has flown. (Please... save the "You're getting old" jokes...)

Follow me on Twitter at @ChipFlory

To join Pro Farmer, click here!