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Midday Futures

RSS By: Justin Lewis, AgWeb.com

Justin is the Vice President of KIS Futures., an independent brokerage located in Oklahoma City. He focuses on agriculture and energy price risk management. Justin has been featured in agriculture trade publications, regional radio shows, and national newspapers.

USDA Plantings & Stocks Preview

Mar 29, 2012

Friday morning's USDA prospective plantings report has been one of the most talked about reports in the past decade. 

 

My numbers are slightly different that the "trade estimate" averages.  The main issue I see with these reports are they are based on 85,000 farmer surveys over the first 2 weeks of March.  A lot can and has changed over the past two weeks that could alter what a farmer is going to plant. 

 

The ratio of new crop corn to new crop soybeans is traditionally around 2.3.  When soybeans are 2.3 times the price of corn, there is little price incentive to plant more of either crop.  The current spread is 2.47, meaning there is a slight incentive to plant soybeans instead of corn.  This may in fact increase the amount of acres of soybeans and lower the amount of corn planted. 

 

Plantings Trade Estimates
Corn Acres Planted 94.7 million
Soybean Acres Planted 75.4 million
Wheat Acres Planted 57.4 million

 

Justin Lewis's Esimates
Corn Acres Planted 93.8 million
Soybean Acres Planted 76.5 million
Wheat Acres Planted 57 million

 

Quarterly Stocks Trade Estimates
Wheat Stocks 1.223 billion bu.
Corn Stocks 6.15 billion bu.
Soybean Stocks 1.387 billion bu.

 

Justin Lewis's Stocks Estimates

Wheat Stocks 1.21 billion bu.
Corn Stocks 6.3 billion bu.
Soybean Stocks 1.42 billion bu.

 

Happy Trading,

Justin R. Lewis, M.B.A.

V.P. - KIS Futures, Inc

Direct: (877) 431-9805

Cell: (580) 335-1602

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

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