Coming Soon: Winter?
Jan 30, 2012
As the first month of 2012 draws to a close, one of the most notable weather stories of the month was the mild weather that much of the country enjoyed. Sure there were times when the mercury dropped and winter tried to take hold; but none of those instances were long lasting. In fact, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and Florida, the country saw above average temperatures during January.
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| Forecast highs for Tuesday, January 31st. Image credit: wunderground.com |
The mild pattern will continue for much of the US over the next few days with forecast highs above average for most of the country. Monday will see highs above average for most of the US with the exception of New England and sections of the Rockies. The mild trend will continue into Tuesday with New England seeing warmer-than-average temperatures.
For some time now, forecast models have suggested a pattern shift was in the works. If the models hold true, many in the central and eastern part of the US will see cold air return in February. Models suggest a trough will form in the jet stream allowing cold air to flood into the US from the Northern Plains to the East Coast and as far south as the Southern Appalachians.
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| Forecast highs from February 5th show colder air beginning to spill out of Canada into the Northern Plains and Northeast. Image credit: wunderground.com |
With the cold air comes an increased chance of snow. Many areas are still well below their average seasonal snowfall totals. At last glance, some of the forecast models are hinting at a potential snow maker for the east sometime in the next 5-7 days. Models are in two much disagreement as to the timing and location of the storm, but it will bear watching as most suggest any precipitation that does fall could be significant.
Groundhog Day
Of course this week is Groundhog day; a day when man drags a belligerent rodent from its nest at sunrise to determine whether or not we’ll have six more weeks of winter or an early spring. While there are many Groundhog Day activities around the country, the most famous is located in Punxsutawney, PA – the home of groundhog Punxsutawney Phil.
The forecast for Punxsutawney on February 2nd calls for overcast conditions in the morning which will limit Punxsutawney Phil’s chances of seeing his shadow. If he does not see his shadow, spring will come early.
Of course, looking back at the winter season thus far, I’m not sure spring didn’t already begin.
Hot and Dry Conditions Continue in South America
For soybean and corn farmers in the South American counties of Brazil and Argentina, each day may seem like Bill Murray’s Groundhog day from the 1993 movie in which the same days plays out over and over again.
Once again, weather forecasts call for hot dry conditions across much of each country. According to
WXRISK.com, there is no rain in the forecast for Argentina before February 4
th. The drought conditions have persisted now since planting began in late 2011. Now we’re well through peak soy bean and corn yield time in Argentina which leaves analysts wondering what impact the 2011-12 drought will have on the crop production?
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Parched corn grows in a field in Coronel Isleno, Argentina on Sunday, Jan. 8, 2012. Image Credit: Diego Guidice/Bloomberg
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In Brazil, drought conditions have persisted through the country’s southern basin while record rains have fallen in the central and northern regions. Forecasts up to 10-days out predict continued heavy rains for the central and northern regions where as much as 8 inches of rain is possible. Once again, analysts are left to wonder what effect the varied extreme weather in Brazil will have on the country’s corn and bean crop.
