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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Friday, August 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Aug 19, 2011

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

What happened to those lazy, hazy, low-volume dog days of summer??!! World stock markets are again under strong pressure today and gold prices are soaring as the market place fears the European Union debt crisis could spread into a worldwide debt contagion. Weak U.S. economic data on Thursday added to the selling pressure in the U.S. stock indexes. If the selling pressure in the U.S. stock indexes remains strong into the close today, then look for a very scary weekend and the potential for a "Black Monday" type of even to start next week.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,144.70 and then at 1,165.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,117.40 and then at 1,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,065.00 and then at the overnight high of 2,086.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,025.00 and then at 2,000.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,800 and then more stops just below support at 10,750. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,900 and then at 10,950. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 29/32 and then at the contract high of 141 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139 16/32 and then at 139 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

 

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.06.5 and then at the contract high of 131.20.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.14.5 and then at 130.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index near steady in early trading today. Dollar index bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 74.57 and then at this week's high of 74.74. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 74.21 and then at 74.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading sharply lower again today. Price action Thursday and today now suggest prices retesting the August low of $75.71, or below. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $81.00 and then at the overnight high of $81.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.17 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading as investor risk appetite has pulled back amid the EU debt concerns and as the key "outside markets" are mostly bearish for the grains again today, as the U.S. dollar index is steady and the U.S. stock indexes and crude oil are sharply lower. The grains have been resilient and losses only moderate, given the very poor outside market conditions and investor uncertainty at present. That hints that grains are likely a value buy.

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