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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 3

Dec 04, 2012

Monday Evening, December 3-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.37 at
$130.77 today. Prices closed near the session high today on
short covering and a corrective bounce following Friday’s
strong selling pressure that did produce a bearish weekly
low close and produce some chart damage. The lower U.S.
dollar index today also supported the cattle market. Cattle
bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field as a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart was negated Friday. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $132.90. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$129.00. First resistance is seen at $131.00 and then at
$131.50. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $130.30
and then at today’s low of $129.97. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.22 at $148.20 today.
Prices closed near the session high on short covering in a
bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$150.60. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the November low of $146.85. First resistance is
seen at $148.50 and then at $149.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $147.85 and then at $147.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

February lean hogs closed down $1.07 at $85.85 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today, hit a fresh
three-week low and also scored a bearish “outside day” down
on the daily bar chart. The hog bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but the higher
volatility at higher price levels is a warning signal that
a market top is in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at the November contract high
of $88.25. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support
at $84.00. First resistance is seen at $86.32 and then at
$87.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $85.60 and
then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were down 1 cent at 7.51 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
and saw some profit taking from recent gains. A weaker U.S.
dollar index today did limit selling pressure in corn.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $7.75 3/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.35. First resistance for
March corn is seen at $7.60 and then at today’s high of
$7.64. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $7.48 and
then at $7.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

January soybeans were up 11 cents at $14.49 3/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and hit
another fresh three-week high today. A weaker U.S. dollar
index helped to support soybeans today. Soybean bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
the bulls have gained some upside near-term momentum
recently. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
January prices above psychological resistance at $15.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $14.62 3/4 and then at $14.75. First support is seen at
today’s low of $14.43 and then at Friday’s low of $14.29.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March soybean meal was up $1.80 at $429.30 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session low after hitting
another three-week high early on. Short covering and
bargain hunting were seen. Meal bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $440.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $405.50. First resistance comes in at
today’s high of $433.80 and then at $435.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of $427.20 and then at $425.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March bean oil was up 44 points at 50.67 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The bulls have
gained some upside technical momentum recently. However,
the bean oil bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 49.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s and last week’s high of 51.13 cents and then at
51.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.24
cents and then at 50.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 3 1/4 cents at $8.60 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
on more profit taking from recent gains. Bulls are fading a
bit but still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $8.79 3/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of $8.45. First
resistance is seen at $8.70 and then at today’s high of
$8.77 1/4. First support lies at today’s low of $8.58 1/4
and then at $8.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 5 1/2 cents at $9.07 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were near the session low on
more profit taking and a corrective pullback from recent
gains. HRW bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $9.40. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $8.85.
First resistance is seen at $9.20 and then at $9.25. First
support is seen at today’s low of $9.06 1/4 and then at
$9.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March oats were up 3 1/4 cents at $3.82 today in late
trading. Trading has become choppy in oats. Prices were
nearer the session low. Oats bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $3.62 1/2.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.78 1/4 and then at
$3.75. First resistance is seen at $3.85 and then at
today’s high of $3.88. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 36 points at 19.70 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more short
covering in a bear market. The U.S. dollar index was weaker
today and that also supported buying interest in sugar.
Sugar bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the November high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the November low of 18.66 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 19.94 cents and
then at 20.03 cents. First support is seen at 19.50 cents
and then at today’s low of 18.39 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

March coffee closed up 10 points at 150.70 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in
a bear market. Prices last week hit a 22-month low. The
coffee bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 160.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 145.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 153.15 cents
and then at 155.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 148.90 cents and then at last week’s low of 147.10
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed up $12 at $2,510 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-week high on more
short covering. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also
supported buying interest in cocoa. The cocoa bulls have
regained the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the late-
September high of $2,602. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2,400. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $2,555 and then at $2,575. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2,479 and then at $2,450.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March cotton closed down 27 points at 73.64 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a
fresh six-week high early on. Recent upside price action
has produced a bullish upside “breakout” from a recent
choppy and sideways trading range. Cotton bulls have gained
the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 71.28 cents. First resistance is seen at 74.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 74.41 cents. First support is seen
at 73.00 cents and then at 72.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

January orange juice closed down 25 points at $1.2300
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. FCOJ
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading a bit. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at the September high of
$1.3010. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.1700. First resistance is seen at $1.2500 and
then at today’s high of $1.2710. First support is seen at
last week’s low of $1.2050 and then at $1.2000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed down $5.90 at $334.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low on profit taking. The
lumber bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $325.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$350.00. First resistance is seen at $339.10 and then at
today’s high of $342.50. First support is seen at $332.50
and then at $330.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $7.50 an ounce
at $1,720.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
saw short covering, bargain hunting and consolidative price
action today following last week’s selling pressure. The
U.S. dollar index was lower today and that was a positive
for gold. Gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the November high of $1,757.10.
Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00.
First resistance is seen at $1,725.00 and then at Friday’s
high of $1,733.70. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,714.20 and then at last week’s low of $1,707.90.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures closed up $0.431 an ounce at $33.71
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were
supported by a corrective technical bounce from Friday’s
strong selling pressure, by gains in gold and by a weaker
U.S. dollar index today. A four-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart and silver bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $34.49 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$32.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $33.93
and then at $34.25. Next support is seen at $33.50 and then
at $33.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 35 points at 365.35 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
five-week high. The U.S. dollar index was weaker and that
supported copper today. Bulls have gained good upside near-
term technical momentum recently and have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 366.75 cents and then
at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
363.95 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed up $0.13 a barrel at
$89.05 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh five-week high early on. A weaker
U.S. dollar today was supportive for crude. Crude oil bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $92.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
November low of $84.53. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $90.33 and then at $91.00. First support is seen at
$88.00 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

January heating oil closed down 71 points at $3.0536 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.0000. First resistance
lies at $3.0750 and then at the November high of $3.1026.
First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0462 and then at
$3.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 60 points at
$2.7248 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
$2.8241. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $2.6200. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.7627 and then at
$2.8000. First support is seen at $2.7000 and then at
$2.6876. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

January natural gas closed up 3.6 cents at $3.597 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-
week low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.80.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.643 and then
at $3.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.526
and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 54 points at 1.3067 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today and hit a fresh six-week high. The
Euro bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the October high of 1.3155. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2850. First resistance for the
Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3089 and then at 1.3155.
Next support is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.2950.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Japanese yen closed up 24 points at 1.2173 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering in a
bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.2345. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2000.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2206 and then
at 1.2253. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2134
and then at the November low of 1.2088. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 19 points at 1.0822 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh six-week high close. The Swissy bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the October high of 1.0874. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0675. First resistance
is seen at the November high of 1.0842 and then at 1.0874.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0799 and then at
1.0775. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 3 points at 1.0334
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on mild profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the
September high of 1.0470. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of 1.0203. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0363 and then at
last week’s high of 1.0397. Next support is seen at 1.0300
and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 17 points at 1.0029
today. Prices closed near the session low. Bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the November high of 1.0095. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
.9919. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0070 and then at 1.0095. First support is seen at 1.0000
and then at .9975. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The March British pound closed up 70 points at 1.6089
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6165.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the October low of
1.5913. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6111
and then at the November high of 1.6140. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.6025 and then at Friday’s low of
1.5983. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 29 points at 80.06
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week low. The bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 81.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the October low of 79.20. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 80.34 and then at
Friday’s high of 80.53. First support is seen at 80.00 and
then at 79.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 8/32 at 149 26/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Some profit
taking was seen today. Bulls still have the overall
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 147 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
151 10/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 150
even and then at last week’s high of 150 14/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 149 1/32 and then at last
week’s low of 148 11/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 5.0 (32nds) at 133.15.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 133.27.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
November low of 131.24.5. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.20.0 and then at last week’s high of
133.22.5. First support is seen at today’s low of 133.08.5
and then at seen at 133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today after a bearish report on U.S. manufacturing
and on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Bulls have
made a decent recovery from the November lows to begin to
suggest near-term market lows are in place. In overseas
news, the Euro currency and European stocks were given a
mild boost Monday when Greece announced overnight it would
buy back up to 10 billion Euros of its outstanding bonds at
a price from 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. The positive
market sentiment on this news underscored how bad the
situation is in Greece—when investors are encouraged that a
sovereign government offers to buy back its obligated debt
at less than half of face value. Other European investors
snapped up German government short-term debt offered on
Monday at a negative return, another sign of the bad
economic and financial situation still overhanging the EU.
Euro zone finance ministers met again Monday to further
discuss details of Greece’s latest bailout plan. Germany on
Friday approved a fresh bailout package for Greece. The
European markets were also lifted on an improving Euro zone
purchasing managers index, although the PMI still showed an
overall contraction in November. Meantime China’s
manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in November.
Other Asian countries also posted improving PMI
manufacturing numbers Monday. In the U.S., the focus of the
market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” that is fast
approaching. U.S. lawmakers are still jousting on the
matter, with a fresh GOP offer put forth Monday. The market
place has started to ignore the politicians’ rhetoric. Most
reckon the bluster coming from Washington, D.C. is just
normal. The market place presently perceives there will be
a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the
fiscal cliff. The market place is starting to look ahead to
next week’s last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting of the year,
on December 10 and 11. The “Operation Twist” program ends
and the FOMC members must decide whether to extend the
bond-buying program. Many believe the Fed will continue to
purchase U.S. Treasuries and implement “QE4” at next week’s
meeting.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 7.25 at
2,668.50. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Bulls and bears on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,750.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,600.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,698.50 and then at 2,715.00. First
support is seen at 2,650.00 and then at 2,640.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 8.50 at 1,405.90.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
four-week high early on. Prices scored a bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart today. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the November high of 1,431.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1,340.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,423.90 and
then at 1,431.40. First support is seen at 1,400.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,383.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 58 points at 12,950. Prices
closed near the session low today and scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart after hitting
a fresh four-week high early on. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 13,225. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
12,440. First resistance in the Dow lies at 13,000 and then
at today’s high of 13,070. First support is seen at 12,900
and then at 12,850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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