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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 4

Dec 05, 2012

Tuesday Evening, December 4-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.62 at
$130.15 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
closed at a fresh two-week low close. Some chart damage has
occurred recently. Cattle bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $131.80. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $129.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $130.65 and then at
$131.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$129.97 and then at $129.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $148.27 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in
a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$150.60. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the November low of $146.85. First resistance is
seen at $148.50 and then at $149.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $147.82 and then at $147.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

February lean hogs closed down $0.15 at $85.52 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh four-
week low. The hog bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but are fading and the higher
volatility at higher price levels is also a warning signal
that a market top is in place. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at the November
contract high of $88.25. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $84.00. First resistance is seen at
$86.00 and then at $86.32. First support is seen at today’s
low of $85.15 and then at $84.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were down 3 1/2 cents at 7.51
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw
more profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls'
next upside price objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
$7.75 3/4. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $7.35. First resistance for March corn
is seen at today’s high of $7.57 and then at this week’s
high of $7.64. First support is seen at today’s low of
$7.46 3/4 and then at $7.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

January soybeans were down 1/4 cent at $14.53 1/2 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, my bias is that the downside is limited
in beans at present price levels. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing January prices above psychological
resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below psychological support at $14.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $14.62 3/4 and
then at $14.75. First support is seen at today’s low of
$14.36 and then at $14.29. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March soybean meal was up $1.60 at $433.20 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high and were poised
to close at a fresh three-week high close. More short
covering and bargain hunting were seen. Meal bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $440.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $405.50. First resistance comes in at
this week’s high of $433.80 and then at $435.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $428.70 and then at
$425.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March bean oil was down 12 points at 50.57 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. The
bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 49.00
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s and last
week’s high of 51.13 cents and then at 51.50 cents. First
support is seen at 50.24 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 4 1/2 cents at $8.56 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw
more profit taking. Bulls are fading but still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s
high of $8.79 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $8.45. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $8.65 and then at this week’s high of $8.77 1/4.
First support lies at today’s low of $8.51 1/2 and then at
$8.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 5 1/2 cents at $9.01 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low on
more profit taking. HRW bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $9.40.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $8.85. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $9.10 and then at $9.20. First support is seen at
today’s low of $8.98 and then at $8.85. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

March oats were up 1/2 cent at $3.85 today in late trading.
Prices were nearer the session high. Trading has been
choppy in oats. Oats bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of $3.62 1/2. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.81 1/4 and then at this
week’s low of $3.78 1/4. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $3.88 and then at $3.90. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 31 points at 19.44 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Sugar
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the November low of 18.66 cents. First
resistance is seen at 19.75 cents and then at this week’s
high of 19.94 cents and then at 20.03 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 19.36 cents and then at last
week’s low of 19.04 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March coffee closed down 220 points at 148.50 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and matched last week’s
22-month low. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 160.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 145.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at 150.00 cents and then at this
week’s high of 153.15 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 147.10 cents and then at 146.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed down $64 at $2,455 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today on some profit taking from
recent gains. Prices Monday hit a nine-week high. The cocoa
bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the late-September high of $2,602. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,400.
First resistance is seen at $2,500 and then at today’s high
of $2,519. First support is seen at last week’s low of
$2,428 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March cotton closed down 108 points at 72.90 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on a corrective
pullback after hitting a six-week high on Monday. Recent
upside price action may have produced a bullish upside
“breakout” from a recent choppy and sideways trading range.
Cotton bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 71.28
cents. First resistance is seen at 73.50 cents and then at
74.00 cents. First support is seen at 72.50 cents and then
at 72.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January orange juice closed up 105 points at $1.2345 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. FCOJ bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the September high of $1.3010. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.1700. First resistance
is seen at $1.2500 and then at this week’s high of $1.2710.
First support is seen at $1.2200 and then at last week’s
low of $1.2050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up $1.00 at $335.20 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. The lumber bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $325.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $350.00. First
resistance is seen at $339.10 and then at this week’s high
of $342.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $332.70
and then at $330.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $23.50 an
ounce at $1,697.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today and hit a fresh four-week low on technical
selling that started in Asia and spread to the U.S. Gold
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but did fade today and need to show fresh power
soon. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the November high of $1,757.10. Bears' next near-term
downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $1,674.70.
First resistance is seen at $1,700.00 and then at
$1,708.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,692.60 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.5

March silver futures closed down $0.789 an ounce at $32.97
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. No serious chart damage occurred. However, the
bulls have faded as a four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart was negated today. Bulls do have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage but need to show
fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $34.49 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $32.50.
First resistance is seen at $33.50 and then at today’s high
of $33.75. Next support is seen at today’s low of $32.745
and then at $32.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 20 points at 366.05 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and hit a
fresh six-week high. Bulls have gained good upside near-
term technical momentum recently and have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 367.85 cents and then
at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
363.35 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $0.65 a barrel
at $88.44 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as
trading remains choppy on the daily chart. Crude oil bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $92.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
November low of $84.53. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $89.18 and then at this week’s high of $90.33.
First support is seen at today’s low of $87.57 and then at
$87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

January heating oil closed down 501 points at $3.0061
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1500.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $3.0000. First
resistance lies at $3.0250 and then at $3.0500. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.9991 and then at last
week’s low of $2.9885. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 345 points at
$2.6920 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $2.8241. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.6200. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.7255 and then at this week’s high of $2.7627. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.6786 and then at last
week’s low of $2.6485. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January natural gas closed down 4.8 cents at $3.543 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a fresh
nine-week low close today. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.80. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.50. First resistance is seen
at $3.60 and then at this week’s high of $3.643. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.525 and then at $3.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 42 points at 1.3113 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today and hit another fresh six-week high.
The Euro bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 1.3155. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2900. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3121 and
then at 1.3155. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3059 and then at 1.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The March Japanese yen closed up 58 points at 1.2232 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.2345. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.2000. First resistance is seen at
1.2253 and then at 1.2300. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2177 and then at this week’s low of 1.2134.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 1 point at 1.0821 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The Swissy
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the October high of
1.0874. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
1.0675. First resistance is seen at the November high of
1.0842 and then at 1.0874. First support is seen at 1.0800
and then at today’s low of 1.0785. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 60 points at 1.0393
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-month high. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the
September high of 1.0470. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of 1.0203. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0402 and then at
1.0470. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0331 and
then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The March Canadian dollar closed up 19 points at 1.0048
today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bears have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the November high of 1.0095. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
.9919. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0070 and then at 1.0095. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0024 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.

The March British pound closed up 13 points at 1.6102
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh four-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6165. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at the October low of 1.5913. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.6126 and then at the November
high of 1.6140. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.6025 and then at 1.5983. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 24 points at 79.82
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low. The bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 81.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the October low of 79.20. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 80.10 and then at 80.53.
First support is seen at 79.75 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 15/32 at 150 6/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls
have the overall technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 147 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of 151 10/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
150 10/32 and then at last week’s high of 150 14/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 149 15/32 and then at
this week’s low of 149 1/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 5.0 (32nds) at 133.20.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 133.27.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
November low of 131.24.5. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 133.22.5 and then at 133.27.5. First support
is seen at today’s low of 133.11.5 and then at this week’s
low of 133.08.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker again today. In overnight news, the Euro currency
hit a fresh six-month high against the U.S. dollar and
European stocks gained amid ideas the European Union
sovereign debt crisis has at least stabilized at present.
Traders and investors in Europe welcomed the move by Greece
Monday to buy back up to 10 billion Euros of its
outstanding bonds at a price from 30 to 40 cents on the
dollar. Spanish and Italian bond yields have declined this
week, which also suggests a stabilizing overall EU debt
crisis. In the U.S., the focus of the market place remains
on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that
is fast approaching. A fresh Republican offer put on the
table Monday was not deemed by the Democrats as sufficient.
U.S. lawmakers are still jousting on the matter, with the
market place now paying less attention to the politicians’
rhetoric. While the market place presently perceives there
will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to
avoid the fiscal cliff, the overall situation has been a
bearish drag on the stock indexes. The market place is
starting to look ahead to next week’s last Federal Reserve
FOMC meeting of the year, on December 10 and 11. The
“Operation Twist” program ends and the FOMC members must
decide whether to extend the bond-buying program. Many
believe the Fed will continue to purchase U.S. Treasuries
and implement “QE4” at next week’s meeting. That would be
stock-market bullish.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 5.25 at
2,665.00. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and
bears on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 2,750.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,600.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,675.75 and then at this week’s
high of 2,698.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,650.25 and then at 2,640.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 1.80 at 1,405.30.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the November high of 1,431.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1,340.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,411.50 and
then at this week’s high of 1,423.90. First support is seen
at 1,400.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,383.20.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 10 points at 12,940. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 13,225. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
12,440. First resistance in the Dow lies at 13,000 and then
at this week’s high of 13,070. First support is seen at
12,900 and then at 12,850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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