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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Mar 5

Mar 06, 2013

Tuesday Evening, March 5-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.72 at
$129.62 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart, after hitting a fresh four-week high early on. The
bulls faded some more today. Cattle futures bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $131.50. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $127.50. First resistance is seen at
$130.00 and then at $130.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $129.40 and then at $129.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

April feeder cattle closed down $1.12 at $143.60 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The feeder bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $146.07. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$142.27. First resistance is seen at $144.00 and then at
$144.50. First support is seen at $143.00 and then at
142.27. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

April lean hogs closed down $1.05 at $79.25 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
contract low. The hog bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. A choppy 3.5-month-old downtrend
is in place on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$82.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$78.00. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at
today’s high of $80.65. First support is seen at today’s
contract low of $79.10 and then at $78.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded up 3 3/4 cents at
$7.07 today in late trading. Prices were near mid-range.
The corn market is at a near-term inflection point. Price
action this week will be extra important. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Traders
are awaiting Friday’s latest USDA supply and demand report.
How corn prices close on Friday could set the tone for
trading the next few weeks. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.20. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $6.78 1/2.
First resistance for May corn is seen at and then at $7.10
and then at this week’s high of $7.12 3/4. First support is
seen at today’s low of $7.02 1/2 and then at $7.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans were up 2 1/4 cents at $14.64 1/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
today on more short covering. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls
do have in their favor a choppy uptrend that is in place
from the January low. Traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA
supply and demand report. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $13.93 1/2.
First resistance is seen at $14.75 and then at today’s high
of $14.81 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of
$14.59 and then at $14.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was up $1.00 at $434.70 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low on short
covering. Bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $443.90. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $420.00. First resistance comes in at $438.00
and then at $440.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $432.80 and then at $430.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

May bean oil was down 13 points at 50.13 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. Bean oil
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 48.67 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.50 cents
and then at today’s high of 50.75 cents. First support is
seen at 50.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.48
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May Chicago SRW wheat was up 1/2 cent at $7.03 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. Prices
Monday hit an 8.5-month low. Good moisture in the U.S.
Plains states recently, and more in the forecast, has been
bearish for the wheat market recently. Prices are in a
seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and
demand report. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective
is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.30 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last June’s low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at $7.10
and then at this week’s high of $7.22. First support lies
at this week’s low of $6.97 1/2 and then at $6.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May HRW wheat was up 2 cents at $7.40 in late trading
today. Prices were near the session low. Prices are
hovering near an 8.5-month low. HRW bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $7.75. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is
seen at $7.50 and then at this week’s high of $7.57. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $7.32 3/4 and then at
$7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May oats were up 2 3/4 cents at $3.87 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $3.58 1/4.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $3.93 1/2. First support lies at today’s
low of $3.83 1/2 and then at $3.80. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.90 and then at $3.91. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 10 points at 18.18 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more short
covering in a bear market. The sugar bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 18.59 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 17.67 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 18.28 cents and then at 18.46 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 18.07 cents and then at
this week’s low of 17.91 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

May coffee closed down 610 points at 140.55 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a
fresh four-week high early on. Prices also scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. The coffee
bulls had gained some fresh upside near-term technical
momentum recently, but quickly lost it all today. The
coffee bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for
the bulls is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of 147.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the February
contract low of 137.60 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at 142.50 cents and then at 145.00 cents. First
support is seen at 140.00 cents and then at 137.60 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May cocoa closed up $1 at $2,057 a ton. Prices closed near
the session low today and are hovering near the contract
low hit on Monday. The cocoa bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $2,156. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,000. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,085 and then
at $2,100. First support is seen at the contract low of
$2,053 and then at $2,025. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May cotton closed up 72 points at 86.98 cents today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit another
fresh 9.5-month high. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 83.00 cents. First resistance is seen today’s high of
87.45 cents and then at 88.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 85.84 cents and then at 85.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May orange juice closed up 10 points at $1.2405 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the February high of $1.3200. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.2000. First resistance
is seen at $1.2500 and then at this week’s high of $1.2600.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.2190 and then at
$1.2100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed up $1.20 at $392.40 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. There was not follow-
through selling today and a bearish “key reversal” down was
not confirmed. Bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$372.50. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $410.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $394.40 and then at $400.00. First support is seen
at $390.00 and then at $387.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $3.30 an ounce at
$1,575.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today. Gains in safe-haven gold were limited by a “risk on”
trading day in the market place today, as the DJIA hit a
new all-time high. Gold prices are still in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the February low of $1,554.40. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $1,585.80 and then at $1,590.00. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $1,568.70 and then at
last week’s low of $1,564.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

May silver futures closed up $0.184 an ounce at $28.68
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Friday hit a 6.5-month low. May silver bears have the near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $29.495 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $27.925. First resistance is seen at $29.00 and then
at $29.19. Next support is seen at today’s low of $28.52
and then at the February low of $28.315. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 210 points at 352.25 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices Friday
hit a 3.5-month low. Copper bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 360.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
343.75 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
354.45 cents and then at 355.80 cents. First support is
seen at 350.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 348.25
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed up $0.73 a barrel at
$90.86 today. Prices closed near the session high today on
short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar index. The crude
oil bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close solid chart resistance
at $92.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $87.00. First
resistance is seen at $91.00 and then at $92.00. First
support is seen at $90.00 and then at this week’s low of
$89.33. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

April heating oil closed up 575 points at $2.9766 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
after prices hit a three-month low Monday. Bears still have
the near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at the December low of $2.8900. First
resistance lies at $2.9800 and then at $3.0000. First
support is seen at $2.9500 and then at $2.9400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 522 points at
$3.1505 today. Prices closed near the session high on short
covering. The gasoline bears still have the slight near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.2000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$3.0000. First resistance is seen at $3.1825 and then at
$3.2000. First support is seen at $3.1250 and then at
$3.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

April natural gas closed down 1.2 cents at $3.517 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and did hit a
fresh six-week high early on. Nat gas bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of $3.67. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $3.25. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$3.554 and then at today’s high of $3.594. First support is
seen $3.45 and then at last week’s low of $3.385. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 16 points at 1.3050 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today. The Euro bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.3325.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2900. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3086 and
then at 1.3110. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.3019 and then at last week’s low of 1.2979. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 11 points at 1.0723 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today in more quiet
trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the February high
of 1.0114. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 1.0600. First resistance is seen at 1.0800
and then at 1.0876. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 1.0680 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 6 points at 1.0633 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices are in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The Swissy bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.0784. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.0657 and then at 1.0682. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1.0617 and then at this week’s
low of 1.0607. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 51 points at 1.0166
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering after hitting a four-month low on
Monday. Today’s and Monday’s price action suggests the
bears have become exhausted after recent downside price
pressure. But bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0275. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 1.0038. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0182 and then at 1.0208. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0116 and then at 1.0038. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

The June Canadian dollar closed down 1 point at .9704
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at .9800. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at .9600. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of .9727 and then at .9760. First support
is seen at this week’s low of .9678 and then at last week’s
low of .9646. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The June British pound closed up 1 point at 1.5105 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5400.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.48000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5193 and then at
1.5250. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5085
1.5000 and 1.5000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .115 points at
82.350 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more
mild profit taking. Prices are hovering near a six-month
high. The bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 83.000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 81.37. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 82.515 and then at last
week’s high of 82.795. First support is seen at today’s low
of 82.165 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 12/32 at 143 18/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on more profit
taking. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field but the bulls are now fading. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 142 16/32.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 145
even. First resistance is seen at 144 even and then at the
144 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 143
11/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 4.0 (32nds) at 131.15.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on more
profit taking. Bulls still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 132.08.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 130.24.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.23.0 and then at the February high of
131.27.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 131.12.0
and then at 131.08.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher again today, with the Dow Jones Industrial average
hitting a new all-time record high. That prompted a “risk
on” day in the market place today. Overnight China
announced a new spending/stimulus initiative to keep its
economy on an upward glide. China officials are expecting
their GDP to be at 7.5% growth in 2013. This news is a
bullish factor for the raw commodity sector and for world
stock markets. There was more weak economic data coming out
of the European Union Tuesday. The Markit firm said its
composite purchasing managers’ index for the Euro zone
declined to 47.9 in February from 48.6 in January. Any
reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. Many expected the
Market PMI to come in worse than it did. Also, the PMI
report was somewhat offset by news that the German
purchasing managers index rose to 54.7 in February from
54.1 in an earlier estimate. The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing
index also came in better than expected Tuesday. There is a
meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels early this
week to address their sovereign debt crisis and other
economic matters. Discussions will likely include Italy,
following last week’s elections that showed the country is
wavering on its pervious austerity commitments. So far, no
major pronouncements have come from that meeting. Arguably
the most important U.S. economic report of the month, the
employment situation report, is due out Friday morning. The
European central bank also holds its monthly meeting and
press conference on Thursday.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 37.75 at 2,797.75
today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh
five-month high today. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside power today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
2,871.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 2,689.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,803.75 and then at 2,825.00. First
support is seen at 2,775.00 and then at today’s low of
2,761.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 11.10 at 1,536.80.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,575.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
February low of 1,482.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,542.50 and then at 1,550.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,524.80 and then at
1,515.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 108 points at 14,225 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
five-year high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the all-time high of 14,270, basis nearby
futures. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 13,770. First resistance in the Dow lies at
14,270 and then at 14,300. First support is seen at today’s
low of 14,178 and then at 14,116. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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