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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 4

Mar 05, 2013

Monday Evening, March 4-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.40 at $130.35
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Cattle futures bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated
Friday and prices closed at a bullish weekly high close on
Friday. There are now early hints that a market bottom is
in place in the cattle futures markets. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $132.00. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$129.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$130.70 and then at $131.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $130.45 and then at $130.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

April feeder cattle closed up $0.57 at $144.72 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The feeder bears still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $147.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $142.27. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $145.22 and then at last week’s high of
$146.07. First support is seen at $144.00 and then at
143.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.82 at $80.30 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 10.0-
month low. The hog bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. A choppy 3.5-month-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. There are no early technical
clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$82.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $79.50. First resistance is seen at
$81.00 and then at $81.50. First support is seen at $80.00
and then at $79.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded down 7 cents at
$7.01 1/2 today in late trading. Prices were nearer the
session low today and did hit a fresh three-week high early
on. However, prices then reversed course and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today.
The market sold off today despite a fresh USDA export sale
announcement, which is worrisome to the bulls. The market
is at a near-term inflection point. Price action this week
will be extra important. The bulls had gained some upside
momentum late last week, but today’s price action dented
bullish enthusiasm. Bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. Traders are also awaiting
Friday’s latest USDA supply and demand report. Corn bulls'
next upside price objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $7.20. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of $6.78 1/2. First resistance for May corn is
seen at and then at today’s high of $7.12 3/4. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.95 1/4 and then at
$6.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans were up 17 1/4 cents at $14.60 3/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
today on short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
However, the bulls do have in their favor a choppy uptrend
that is in place from the January low. Traders are awaiting
Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$13.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$14.67 3/4 and then at $14.75. First support is seen at
$14.50 and then at today’s low of $14.34 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was up $4.70 at $434.00 today in late
trading. Prices were near the session high on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have the slight near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $443.90. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $420.00. First resistance comes in at
$435.00 and then at $438.00. First support is seen at
$430.00 and then at $427.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May bean oil was up 60 points at 50.27 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high and saw
short covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
48.67 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
50.33 cents and then at 50.50 cents. First support is seen
at 50.00 cents and then at today’s low of 49.48 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May Chicago SRW wheat was down 18 1/2 cents at $7.02 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hit a fresh 8.5-month low today. Good moisture in the U.S.
Plains states recently, and more in the forecast, has been
bearish for the wheat market recently. Prices are in a
seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and
demand report. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective
is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.30 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last June’s low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at $7.10
and then at today’s high of $7.22. First support lies at
today’s low of $6.97 1/2 and then at $6.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

May HRW wheat was down 18 3/4 cents at $7.37 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and poised
to close at a fresh 8.5-month low close. HRW bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.75. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.25.
First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at today’s high
of $7.57. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.32
3/4 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May oats were up 4 1/4 cents at $3.84 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high. Oats bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $3.58
1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $3.93 1/2. First support lies at $3.80 and
then at today’s low of $3.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.88 and then at $3.91. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 19 points at 18.10 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Bulls had some upside near-term technical
momentum but have now lost it. The sugar bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 18.59
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 17.67 cents. First resistance is seen at
18.20 cents and then at 18.30 cents. First support is seen
at 18.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 17.88 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May coffee closed up 290 points at 146.25 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
four-week high. Short covering was featured. The coffee
bulls are gaining some fresh upside near-term technical
momentum to begin to just hint that a market bottom is in
place. But the coffee bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 150.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February contract low
of 137.60 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 146.95 cents and then at 148.00 cents.
First support is seen at 145.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 142.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May cocoa closed down $19 at $2,063 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit a fresh contract low.
A stronger U.S. dollar index has limited the upside in
cocoa recently. The cocoa bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $2,156. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,085 and then at
$2,100. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$2,053 and then at $2,025. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May cotton closed up 107 points at 86.47 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh
9.5-month high today. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 83.00 cents. First resistance is seen today’s high of
86.75 cents and then at 87.00 cents. First support is seen
at 86.00 cents and then at 85.24 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

May orange juice closed up 215 points at $1.2310 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. FCOJ bulls saw a big
down day and a bearish weekly low close on Friday, and now
the bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart has been negated. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at the February high of $1.3200.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.2000. First resistance is seen at $1.2500 and then at
today’s high of $1.2600. First support is seen at $1.2200
and then at $1.2100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed down $4.60 at $391.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low today after hitting a
fresh contract high early on. Prices today also scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. If there
is follow-through selling on Tuesday, then a bearish “key
reversal” down would be confirmed, which would be an early
technical clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still
have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of $372.50. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at today’s contract
high of $403.00. First resistance is seen at $395.00 and
then at $397.50. First support is seen at $390.00 and then
at $387.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $0.50 an ounce at
$1,572.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Some mild short covering was offset by bearish
outside markets for gold—a stable U.S. dollar index and
lower crude oil prices. Gold prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the February low of $1,554.40. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $1,584.30 and then at $1,590.00. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $1,564.00 and then at
$1,554.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

May silver futures closed up $0.01 an ounce at $28.50
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Friday hit a fresh 6.5-month low. May silver bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $29.495
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $27.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$28.815 and then at $29.00. Next support is seen at the
February low of $28.315 and then at last week’s low of
$27.925. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 40 points at 350.50 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Friday hit a
3.5-month low. Copper bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 360.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
343.75 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
352.65 cents and then at 355.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 348.25 cents and then at last week’s
low of 347.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $0.71 a barrel at
$89.97 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh nine-week low. A firmer U.S. dollar index has helped
to pressure the crude oil market recently. The crude oil
bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close solid chart resistance at $92.00
a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $87.00. First resistance
is seen at $91.00 and then at $92.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $89.33 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

April heating oil closed down 127 points at $2.9174 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-
month low today. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of $2.8900. First resistance lies at today’s
high of $2.9425 and then at $2.9600. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2.9038 and then at $2.8900. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 340 points at
$3.0946 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and 
closed at a fresh five-week low close today. The gasoline
bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.0000. First resistance is
seen at $3.1250 and then at $3.1500. First support is seen
at last week’s low of $3.0590 and then at $3.0250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

April natural gas closed up 7.7 cents at $3.533 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Prices
also closed at a fresh six-week high close today. Nat gas
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the January high of $3.67. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.25. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of $3.554 and then at $3.60. First support
is seen $3.45 and then at last week’s low of $3.385.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 1 point at 1.3028 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today. The Euro bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
1.3325. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2900. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3050 and
then at 1.3100. Next support is seen at last week’s low of
1.2979 and then at 1.2950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 18 points at 1.0710 today.
Prices closed near mid-range in quiet trading today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the February high of
1.0114. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
1.0600. First resistance is seen at 1.0800 and then at
1.0876. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0680 and
then at 1.0650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June Swiss franc closed up 30 points at 1.0639 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering after prices hit a 3.5-month low on Friday. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The Swissy bears have the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0784. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First
resistance is seen at 1.0682 and then at 1.0702. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0607 and then at last
week’s low of 1.0584. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 3 points at 1.0110
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-month low early on. Today’s high range close
suggests the bears may be getting exhausted after recent
downside price pressure. But bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at 1.0275. The next downside breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0123 and then at 1.0161. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0038 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 6 points at .9705 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw tepid short
covering after hitting an eight-month low on Friday. Prices
are in a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at .9870. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9600. First resistance is
seen at .9760 and then at .9800. First support is seen at
today’s low of .9678 and then at last week’s low of .9646.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The June British pound closed up 85 points at 1.5095 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit another
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5400. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.48000. First resistance is seen at 1.5175 and
then at 1.5214. First support is seen at 1.5000 and then at
the contract low of 1.4978. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .078 points at
82.480 today. Prices closed near the session low today on
mild profit taking. Prices are hovering near a six-month
high that was scored on Friday. The bulls still have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 83.000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 81.37.
Next resistance lies at last week’s high of 82.795 and then
at 83.000. First support is seen at 82.000 and then at
81.745. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 13/32 at 143 30/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking
after hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field but
the bulls do still have some upside momentum on their side.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
142 16/32. The next upside technical objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 145 even. First resistance is seen at 144
16/32 and then at the December high of 144 30/32. First
support is seen at 143 15/32 and then at 143 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 5.0 (32nds) at 131.20.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking after hitting a fresh two-month high early on. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 132.08.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.24.0. First resistance is seen at the February high of
131.27.0 and then at today’s high of 132.00.5. First
support is seen at 131.16.0 and then at 131.11.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today. The U.S. government March 1 budget
sequestration deadline has come and gone with no agreement
between Democrats and Republicans. There was no progress
made on the matter among politicians during the weekend.
While this situation is not unexpected, it has cast a bit
of a bearish pall over most of the market place early this
week. Last week’s bearish read on manufacturing and
property data coming out of China also worries traders that
the second-largest economy in the world could be sputtering
again. Meantime, there is a meeting of European Union
leaders in Brussels beginning Monday to once again address
their sovereign debt crisis. Discussions will likely
include Italy, following last week’s elections that showed
the country is wavering on its pervious austerity
commitments. The EU debt crisis has begun to creep back
into focus of the market place recently. Arguably the most
important U.S. economic report of the month, the employment
situation report, is due out Friday morning. Trading action
could be more subdued ahead of that key data.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 13.75 at 2,762.25
today. Prices closed near the session high. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the February high of 2,786.50. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,650.00. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of 2,764.50 and then at 2,775.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,732.75 and then at
2,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 9.00 at 1,525.50.
Prices closed near the session high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the February high of 1,530.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the February low of 1,482.00. First
resistance is seen at 1,530.00 and then at 1,540.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,507.10 and then at
1,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed up 42 points at 14,116 today. Prices
closed near the session high and closed at a fresh five-
year high close today. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the all-time high of 14,270, basis
nearby futures. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of 13,770. First resistance in the Dow
lies at last week’s high of 14,125 and then at 14,150.
First support is seen at today’s low of 14,020 and then at
14,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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