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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 3

Apr 01, 2013

Wednesday, April 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, there were new developments on the Cyprus
banking crisis front Wednesday. The island nation reached an
agreement with the IMF for an additional 1 billion Euro
"lifeline" loan. There was little market reaction to that
news. Euro zone inflation rose at its slowest rate in two
years in March, at a 1.7% annualized rate, according to the
Euro zone statistics bureau, Eurostat. There are key central
bank meetings of the European Central Bank, the Bank of
Japan and Bank of England on Thursday, all of which will be
closely monitored by the market place. U.S. economic data
due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the
ISM non-manufacturing report, and the weekly DOE energy
stocks report. Traders and investors are looking ahead to
Friday’s release of the U.S. employment situation report,
which is arguably the most important U.S. economic report of
the month. The consensus forecast calls for the key non-farm
payrolls figure to have risen by 200,000 in March, with the
overall unemployment rate unchanged from the previous month,
at 7.7%.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hovering near Tuesday’s five-year high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s for-
the-move high of 1,568.00 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,555.40
and then at last week’s low of 1,539.20. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hovering near Tuesday’s six-month high. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Tuesday’s high of
2,823.00 and then at 2,835.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,800.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 2,786.25. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hovering near Tuesday’s all-time record high. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of
14,550 and then at 13,500. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance Tuesday’s high of 14,600 and then
at 14,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage, amid
safe-haven demand recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 144 19/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at this week’s low of 144 even and
then at 143 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of
132.08.0 and then at last week’s high of 132.11.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 131.29.0 and then at this week’s
low of 131.23.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The
greenback bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 83.245 and then at this
week’s high of 83.365. Shorter-term support is seen at
83.000 and then at 82.810. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on mild profit
taking after hitting a six-week high on Monday. Bulls still
have the near-term technical advantage. In May Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.00
and then at Tuesday’s high of $97.44. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $96.51
and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight on short covering and
technical chart consolidation following recent strong
selling pressure, led by corn. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets
recently, following the bearish USDA data last week. How
the grain markets close out this week will be extra
important. Closes in the grains near the weekly high on
Friday would be a clue that prices have likely put in
market bottoms. If that’s not the case, then more downside
price pressure is likely in the grain futures markets in
the coming weeks. U.S. Corn Belt weather patterns will
start to dominate the fundamental news in the coming weeks,
but wetter weather patterns in the central U.S. are also
bearish for the grains.
 

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