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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 4

Dec 04, 2012

Tuesday, December 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Euro currency hit a fresh six-month
high against the U.S. dollar and European stocks gained amid
ideas the European Union sovereign debt crisis has at least
stabilized at present. Traders and investors in Europe
welcomed the move by Greece Monday to buy back up to 10
billion Euros of its outstanding bonds at a price from 30 to
40 cents on the dollar. Spanish and Italian bond yields have
declined this week, which also suggests a stabilizing
overall EU debt crisis. In the U.S., the focus of the market
place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and
spending cuts that is fast approaching. A fresh Republican
offer put on the table Monday was not deemed by the
Democrats as sufficient. U.S. lawmakers are still jousting
on the matter, with the market place now paying less
attention to the politicians’ rhetoric. While the market
place presently perceives there will be a last-minute
agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff,
the overall situation has been a drag on many markets,
including the raw commodities and stock markets. U.S.
economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly
Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and
the ISM New York business survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today.
Bulls still have a bit of upside near-term technical
momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,423.90 and then at the November high of 1,431.40. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,383.20. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls still have some upside momentum. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s
high of 2,698.50 and then at 2,725.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,662.25 and then at
2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls
still have some upside technical momentum on their side.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 13,000 and then at Monday’s
high of 13,070. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today, on more
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 150 even and then at last week’s high of 150 14/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of 149
15/32 and then at Monday’s low of 149 1/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today,
on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.19.0 and
then at last week’s high of 133.22.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.11.5 and then at
133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S.
trading today and hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bears
have fresh downside near-term technical momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.10 and then at Monday’s high of
80.34. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.75 and then at
79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls still have a
bit of upside technical momentum on their side. In January
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.00
and then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Trading
in the grains has been choppier recently. My bias remains
that there is not strong downside price potential in the
grains in the coming weeks and months.
 

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